[Darwin] FBS by joyny

[joyny]

Hi!

Saw some investors already investing in my darwin FBS, therefore, created here this thread for questions and answers.

Trading Facebook (META) stock. Automated swing strategy. Deals can be opened for several months.

TakeProfit/StopLoss based on technical indicators.

When there is a BUY setup - close SELL and open BUY. When SELL setup appears - it is time to close BUY and open SELL. There is always 1 deal opened with this strategy. And in the case of a flat market - yes, paying swaps and stay in the deal. Still, all this approach is profitable.

Started the account only with 100 usd at the beginning there was a huge drawdown 40%. But now it is stabilized and DD on account no more than 13%. Will stick to that.

Here is account history - all deals with volume 1:

Backtested this strategy with 3 years of history. Now 1.5 years already on the real account. So far all according to backtests.

Warning: please do not put all your money in this 1 darwin. Diversify. Make a portfolio of n darwins.

Start to invest in this darwin when it is in DD 5-7%.

About me: trading since 2018. Have analyst and coding skills more than 15 years. Expierence to work with big-data for insurance companies. Master's degree in computer science and bachelor's degree in mathematics-statistics. I like very much "randomness". I trade only automated. Have n other darwins - some good, some bad. Therefore diversify.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Hi @joyny , welcome to the forum!

 

[joyny]

Charged account with additional money x3 and set volume now to 3.

3 years of backtests and 1.5 years of live trading confirmed that this strategy can be profitable.

Seems will get some awards from Darwinex (at this moment on 12 place in DarwinIA competition for July 2022).

 

[joyny]

Here 3 year backtests for the period 2018.01 - 2021.01

Conditions, when I enter, are quite rare - in 17 months 20 deals. About 1 deal per month on average.

 

[AriaS]

Just wow! How did you manage to get such a high D-score with only 1.0 experience? It's interesting that our scores look similar But your capacity is so much better. Congratulations! Will be keeping an eye on your DARWIN.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

New DScore (unfortunatelly) is calculated only from return and lenght of trackrecord.
So if you make one decision of investing a stock and holding for 2 years if it prodiuces return it will result in good DScore.
New DScore tells the same info than Return.

 

[joyny]

Just wow! How did you manage to get such a high D-score with only 1.0 experience? It's interesting that our scores look similar But your capacity is so much better. Congratulations! Will be keeping an eye on your DARWIN.

Tnx. I dont know how dscore calculated 🤷‍♂️

And dont know how capacity calculated...😀

But noticed that 2 days before DarwinAI competition ended my darwin was at 1st place. And then in the last 2 days it ended at place nr 14 with quite huge darwin score difference between 1st place.

Maybe coincidence...but maybe better to know how darwin ratings calculated and take some additional risks at the end of month? But then it would contradict my strategy rules...

I wont try to somehow gain scores..just keep trading and time will do the rest.

 

[AriaS]

"Don't ever argue with your trading system!" - whoever said that

 

[joyny]

Yesterday FBS darwin EA finally closed BUY position with profits. The position was opened 47 days.

SELL deal now in profits but EA did not apply new volume x3. Will have to intervene manually when the next BUY setup will be ready to enter.

Seems when EA running and I change the order volume parameter then on the VPS server restart MT5 re-run EA with previous parameters settings... 🤷‍♂️

 

[joyny]

Today finally closed BUY position - opened SELL.

It was painfull to watch.. but I never manually do anything. Otherwise, this will go against EA ruless. So it just went down, closed according to the exit rules..

I trade automated only and it stays so. Yes sometimes I see from fundamentals that the position is wrong.. but that is my trading style and I will stick to it.

it is good time to buy this darwin - did it by myself:

 

[joyny]

FBS underlying account now ~20% in DD. Now in opened SELL position..

My personal investment in FBS darwin is ~7% DD.

Will add additional strategy to get out of DD.

Here how new strategy performed on META stock from 2019 till now:

With SL 3% this strategy might give about 10 to 15% yearly profits, max DD in 4 years was 6%. Mostly SELL deals.. we now are in quite a pessimistic stock market.. and year 2023 might be not much better than 2022..

 

[joyny]

Still going down.. my personal investment -22% down. FBS underlying account is down -40%.

Now in opened the META SELL position. Techs cut off employees which impact the profitability of the company in a positive way:

What happened. Shares of Meta Platforms (META 23.28%) were soaring after the social media giant beat revenue estimates in its fourth-quarter earnings report and slashed expenses, paving the way to a return to profit growth in 2023

2nd strategy doesn't start opening positions jet. Will keep 2nd EA running and prepare another strategy to recover.

 

[joyny]

Some recovery ~4% for FBS.

As account capital allows - will add one more EA which will trade EURUSD, as Darwinex made it possible to trade stocks and currencies on 1 account.

EA trained with 20 years of data. Forwardtested 3 years. Fixed SL/TP with risk/reward 1/1.

 

[joyny]

Turned off META EA. Closed manually META SELL position. Will ad an portfolio of EAs trading currencies. As see from other my darwins then portfolious of at least 10 EAs trading quite good.

 

[joyny]

Set up 8 EAs portfolio. Here analysis from 2013 to 2020. And forward test from 2020 till now:

Here deal counts - on average ~80 deals per year:

Here drawdowns info - on FBS account now ~700 usd, trading will be with 0.02 lots, so in scenario when live trading give 2x worse DD and 2x less profits we can expect here ~12% to 25% DD and ~28% to 85% yearly profits. Possible to sit in DD 140 days (2x worse than analysis...)

Each particular EA was 10 years winner (each forwardtestet from 2020):

Each symbol traded with different sl/tp - various risk/rewards combinations. SL/TP in %. SL/TP checked by EAs. There is set hard safety SL +30 pips in case EAs not work.

With this portfolio expect to get out of loses (~ -30%) did by trading META stock - about in 1 year.

 

[joyny]

Reflecting on the past year, my new FBS trading strategies didn't yield the expected profits, though they managed to avoid significant losses. In response, I am transitioning to a novel approach that targets high-growth companies such as DKS, MSFT, and DECK. This strategy will include a mix of buying and strategic selling, diverging from the usual emphasis on buying dips. I've established fixed stop-loss and take-profit points, starting with a 1:1 risk-reward ratio, with automated logic to adjust to 1:n (not trailing, but fixed and adjusted based on data analysis where I found some patterns and decided to implement various TP targets) based on previous performance.

Here new stocks portfolio performance analysis: