Daily News Analysis By Ultima Markets

[Ultima markets]

Trade war risks intensify, putting pressure on the US dollar and limiting the upward trend of US stocks​

US-China trade relations remain a central focus for global markets. Former US President Trump’s latest comments, including the possibility of imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese imports and a tough stance on China’s rare earth export controls, have further exacerbated tensions.

Against this backdrop, the market is balancing optimistic expectations of further Federal Reserve easing on the one hand, and lingering trade risks on the other. This intertwined situation has led to cautious market sentiment, which could quickly shift to risk-off mode if trade tensions escalate.

Market Outlook and Technical Analysis​

US dollar: Continued pressure from dovish sentiment​

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s earlier dovish comments continued to weigh on the dollar. He cited a significant slowdown in job growth and increased downside risks as reasons for the Fed’s shift to a more accommodative policy stance. Markets are currently pricing in two more rate cuts this year.

From a technical perspective, the US Dollar Index (USDX) has fallen below the key support level of 98.50 . This is seen as a bearish signal , suggesting that the US dollar may enter a deeper correction phase.

USDX, daily chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

US stocks: Upward momentum capped by trade risks​

US stocks remain range-bound. While strong earnings reports and easing expectations have provided a brief respite, trade tensions remain a major upward barrier. The Nasdaq 100 Index faces key resistance between 24,800 and 25,000 points . Failure to break through this range could lead to renewed downward pressure.

NAS100, 4-hour chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

EUR/USD: Swinging between dollar volatility and growth concerns​

The Euro/USD pair’s performance is primarily influenced by the US dollar’s dynamics. After breaking below the 1.1600 support level, the pair has rebounded, forming a short-term double bottom pattern . A sustained break above the 1.1600–1.1630 range could pave the way for further gains.

EUR/USD, 2-hour chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5

---

Risk Warning : Trading leveraged derivatives involves a high level of risk and may result in capital loss.

Disclaimer : The commentary, news, research, analysis, prices, and other information contained herein are for informational purposes only and are intended to assist readers in understanding market conditions. They do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable steps to ensure the accuracy of this information, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed and is subject to change without notice. Ultima Markets assumes no liability for any loss or damage (including, without limitation, lost profit) arising directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.

 

[Ultima markets]

Market volatility intensifies amidst a dovish Fed, bank pressures, and trade tensions​

Global markets are facing a new round of uncertainty brought about by the confluence of three major macro forces: a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), renewed pressure on the US banking sector, and ongoing Sino-US trade tensions.

Fed policy and dollar pressure​

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that a sharp slowdown in the U.S. job market is increasing downside risks to the economy, suggesting the central bank could cut interest rates twice more before the end of the year . Several Fed officials reinforced this dovish tone, fueling market expectations for further rate cuts.

• US dollar technical analysis : The US dollar index (USDX) has fallen back below the key support level of 98.50 . A sustained break below this level will increase the risk of a deeper correction, with the next key support around 97.50 .

USDX, Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

US bank pressure and stock market headwinds​

$15 billion from the Federal Reserve’s standing repurchase facility , suggesting increased liquidity pressure in short-term funding markets, triggering new pressure on regional banks.

• Financials Under Pressure : The financial sector saw heavy selling on Tuesday, dragging down the broader market. Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp were among the hardest hit.
• Stock markets face a correction : While dovish signals and lower yields offer short-term support, weakness in the banking sector and trade uncertainty are curbing upward momentum. If financial stability concerns deepen, stocks could face a correction .

SP500, Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

• S&P 500 : A recent rebound attempt was rejected near the 6,700 resistance area and a nascent reversal structure may be forming . Failure to reclaim and hold 6,700 could lead to intensified downside pressure.

NAS100, H4 Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

• Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) : The index is struggling to break through 25,000 points , with the 25,000–24,800 range acting as strong resistance. Failure to reclaim this area could increase downside risks.

---

Risk Warning : Trading leveraged derivatives involves a high level of risk and may result in capital loss.

Disclaimer : The commentary, news, research, analysis, prices, and other information contained herein are for informational purposes only and are intended to assist readers in understanding market conditions. They do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable steps to ensure the accuracy of this information, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed and is subject to change without notice. Ultima Markets assumes no liability for any loss or damage (including, without limitation, lost profit) arising directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.