Daily Market Wrap – July 8, 2026: Oil Surges on Geopolitics, Gold Holds Near $4,100, DXY Steady Ahead of FOMC Minutes

[RichieVo]

Daily Market Wrap – July 8, 2026: Oil Surges on Geopolitics, Gold Holds Near $4,100, DXY Steady Ahead of FOMC Minutes

---

1. DXY – Steady Ahead of FOMC Minutes​

The US Dollar Index is trading at ~101.10, up slightly after two days of decline, as oil price surges rekindled inflation concerns. The market-implied probability of a September rate hike rose to 58% (from 56%).
Key Drivers:

• Geopolitical tensions (Hormuz tanker attacks) pushed oil prices up ~5%
• Higher oil prices rekindled inflation fears, supporting dollar
• Markets await Wednesday's FOMC Minutes for policy clues

Key Levels:

• Support: 100.56 (recent low) – 100.00 (psychological)
• Resistance: 101.59 (last week's high) – 101.80

Outlook: The dollar is likely to remain range-bound ahead of FOMC Minutes. A hawkish tone could push DXY toward 101.59-101.80.

---

2. Gold – Holding Above $4,100​

Gold is trading at **$4,094-4,120/oz**, retreating slightly from last week's highs but still holding above the key $4,100 level.
Key Drivers:

• NFP data (57K jobs added) remains supportive for gold
• FOMC Minutes are the key risk event – hawkish tone could pressure gold
• Safe-haven demand remains intact amid Middle East tensions

Key Levels:

• Support: $4,100 – $4,032 (recent low)
• Resistance: $4,168 (today's high) – $4,200 – $4,272 (34-day MA)

Outlook: Gold is consolidating before FOMC Minutes. A dovish Fed could push gold toward $4,200. A hawkish tone could send it back to $4,050.

---

3. WTI Crude – Surges 5% on Geopolitical Risks​

WTI crude is trading at $71.85/bbl, up ~5% after a Qatari LNG tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.
Key Drivers:

• Geopolitical escalation: Iran attacked Qatari LNG tanker Al-Rekayyat
• US sanctions: Treasury revoking waivers allowing Iran to sell oil
• Iranian statement: Peace talks will not proceed while security threats exist
• Trump warning: "Either a deal or the US will finish the job"

Key Levels:

• Support: $70.00 – $70.96 (14-day MA)
• Resistance: $73.04 (June 24 high) – $75.00 (psychological)

Outlook: Oil prices will remain volatile. Any escalation could push oil toward $73-75. A de-escalation could see prices retreat to $70.

---

4. Equities – ASX 200 Pulls Back, Hang Seng Slides​

ASX 200: Closed at 8,831 (-0.2%), pulling back from Friday's rally. The index remains trapped in the 8,800-8,900 range. Support: 8,800 – 8,820. Resistance: 8,890 – 8,910.
Hang Seng: Fell 0.51% to 23,496, reversing earlier gains. Property stocks led the decline (-3%) as the World Bank forecast China's growth to slow to 4.4% in 2026. Support: 23,300 – 23,230. Resistance: 23,780 – 23,820.
Outlook: Both indices are in consolidation mode. A breakout above 8,900 (ASX) and 23,850 (Hang Seng) is needed for further upside.

---

5. Geopolitics – The Key Market Driver​

• Hormuz tanker attack: Qatari LNG tanker Al-Rekaytat was attacked by Iran
• US response: Treasury revoking oil export waivers for Iran
• Iran: Peace talks will not proceed while security threats exist
• US-Iran standoff: Military action remains a possibility

Risk Scenarios:

• Escalation: Oil to $73-75, Gold to $4,200+
• De-escalation: Oil back to $70, Gold to $4,050

---

Key Takeaways​

• **Oil ($71.85):** Bullish momentum on geopolitics. Resistance at $73.04, $75.00. Support at $70.00.
• **Gold ($4,094-4,120):** Consolidating before FOMC. Support at $4,100, resistance at $4,200.
• DXY (101.10): Awaiting FOMC Minutes. Range: 100.50 – 101.80.
• ASX 200 (8,831): Range-bound. Support 8,800, resistance 8,900.
• Hang Seng (23,496): Bearish bias. Support 23,300, resistance 23,800.