daily market outlook

[jebat66]

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair continues moving upwards from the level of 0.6822. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.6837 (the level of 0.6837 coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 0.6886. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.6837 followed by 0.6822, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 0.6921. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.6822 and 0.6921. On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 0.6921, which coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.6921, we should see the pair climbing towards the second resistance at 0.6967 to test it.
On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.6800, a further decline to 0.6741 can occur. This would indicate a bearish market.

Intraday technical levels:

Major resistance:0.6767
Minor resistance:0.6921
Intraday pivot point:0.6886
Minor support:0.6822
Major support:0.6741

 

[jebat66]

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As I had expected, the price tested the level of 1.6544 in a high volume. EUR/NZD has broken the upward channel. So, only watch for selling opportunities on the rallies. According to the H4 time frame, I found bar that closed in the middle of the range, which represents that supply came in today.The first take profit at the price of 1.6610 was met (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%) and the second take profit level is set at the price of 1.6480 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%).

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6760

R2: 1.6800

R3: 1.6880

Support levels:

S1: 1.6695

S2: 1.6655

S3: 1.6485

Trading recommendation for today: Watch for selling opportunities on rallies.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues moving downwards from the areas of 0.9560. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9560 to 0.9500, which coincides with the double bottom on the H4 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.9560 and 0.9600. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.9560 and 0.9600; because the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.9560 and 0.9500. In overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 0.9560. Furthermore, if the USD/CHF pair is able to break out the bottom at 0.9500, the market will decline further to 0.6460 (daily support 2). If the price closes below the support of 0.9500, then the trend will call for bearish market towards the targets of 0.6460 and 0.6400. On the other hand, if the USD/CHF pair is able to break the resistance of 0.9560. Then, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 0.9600; hence, the price will rise into a bullish trend in order to go further towards the strong resistance at 0.9758 to test it again. The level of 0.9758 will form a double bottom.

 

[jebat66]

Since our previous analysis, gold has been moving upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,262.45 in a high volume. The yesterday's analysis is still valid. I found a broken downward channel according to the H4 time frame, which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips. The take profit level is set at the price of $1,278.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,262.00

R2: 1,267.00

R3: 1,274.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,246.00

S2: 1,242.00

S3: 1,234.00

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.

 

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 13/04/2016:

Gold prices continue rallying higher, posting their largest gain in 30 years. The increased fueled gold stocks' buying frenzy. The classic risk-off pattern seems to be present on the financial markets since the beginning of the week as rumors about the secret special meeting between Janet Yellen and President Obama have attracted attention of gold traders. Moreover, gold prices are benefiting from weaker US dollar. In conclusion, the flight for safety continues as the gold prices increased ahead of the next Fed meeting.

Let's now take a look at the gold technical picture in the daily time frame. A clear and impulsive rally from the level of 1,046 has been capped 250 dollars higher and now the level of 1,283 will be the most important resistance for bulls. The bears might change the current bullish outlook for their favor only if they bring the price down towards the level of 1,191 and break it. Otherwise, higher prices are expected.

 

[jebat66]

General overview for 13/04/2016:

The wave progression inside the triangle pattern looks completed as the wave e of the whole structure is fully developed. A downward breakout should happen soon. Please note that the corrective cycle might evolve into a less complex and time-consuming pattern, especially if the intraday resistance at the level of 124.24 is clearly violated. For now, however, sideways price action below the weekly pivot is expected. Impulsive break out to the downside is also anticipated.

Support/Resistance:

122.53 - Intraday Support

124.11 - Weekly Pivot

124.24 - Intraday Resistance

125.66 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Traders should sell the triangle pattern area with SL above the level of 124.24 and TP at the lows of the triangle pattern around the level of 122.50.

 

[jebat66]

General overview for 13/04/2016:

The current Elliott wave count has been changed slightly and instead of the abc irregular correction the pattern evolved into more complex double zig-zag. The current corrective sub-wave (b) target is projected at the level of 1.2856. Then a downtrend should continue for at least one more wave. Please remember, that this structure might evolve even further into a triple zig-zag pattern as well.

Support/Resistance:

1.2747 - Intraday Support

1.2772 - WS2

1.2856 - WS1

1.2884 - Intraday Resistance

1.3036 - Weekly Pivot

1.3126 - WR1

1.3218 - Local High

1.3295 - Swing High

1.3303 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should sell the market at the current prices with SL above the level of 1.2884 and TP at the level of 1.2700 (minimum.

 

[jebat66]

USD/JPY is expected to continue its rebound. The pair managed to post a rebound yesterday confirming the level of 107.60 as its recent low. Overnight the U.S. stocks closed higher as energy shares were boosted by a surge in oil prices. Bank and financial shares also performed well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.9% to 17,721, the S&P 500 rose 1.0% to 2,061, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.8% to 4,872.

Nymex crude oil surged 4.5% to $42.17 a barrel, gold declined 0.2% to $1,256 an ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was up to 1.781% from 1.724% in the previous session.

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar posted a rebound against the yen after falling for seven days in a row, with USD/JPY rallying 0.6% to 108.53. EUR/USD declined 0.2% to 1.1384 in a volatile session seeing the pair swinging up to 1.1464 and down to 1.1345.

Meanwhile, driven by oil prices' upward momentum, commodities-linked currencies kept moving upwards. USD/CAD lost another 1.1% to trade at 1.2759, AUD/USD surged 1.2% to 0.7682, and NZD/USD was up 0.9% to 0.6920. Currently it remains on the upside while seeking support by the 20-period (30-minute chart) moving average, which stands above the 50-period one. The intraday relative strength index is over the neutrality level of 50 lacking downward momentum. As long as the rebound continues, the pair is expected to return to the first upside target at 109.50. Further resistance above this level would be found at 109.95.

Trading Recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 109.50 and the second one, at 109.95. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 107.60 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 107. The pivot point is at 108.10.

Resistance levels: 109.50, 109.95, 110.50

Support levels: 107.60, 107, 106.15

 

[jebat66]

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range as bias remains bullish. The pair managed to break above the resistance of its 50-period moving average, and now the pair is holding above it. The relative strength index jumped above its neutrality area at 50, and it is lacking downward momentum. Even though a consolidation cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be limited by 0.9530 (a horizontal support). As long as this threshold is not broken, look for further advance to 0.9595 and 0.9620 in extension.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9595 and the second one, at 0.9620. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.95 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9480. The pivot point is at 0.9530.

Resistance levels: 0.9595, 0.9620, 0.9650

Support levels: 0.9500, 0.9480 , 0.9450

 

[jebat66]

NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range and continue its upside movement. The pair is clearly in a bullish trend, supported by its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The process of higher highs and lows remains intact. That confirms a positive outlook. In addition, the relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality area at 50. As long as 0.6890 is not broken, look for a new rise to 0.6975 and 0.7005 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6975 and the second one, at 0.7005. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6865 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6845. The pivot point is at 0.6890.

Resistance levels: 0.6975, 0.7025, 0.7055

Support levels: 0.6865, 0.6845, 0.6785

 

[jebat66]

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range as the bias remains bullish. The pair stands above the short-term rising trend line since April 11 and is also supported by its 50-period moving average. Meanwhile, the relative strength index lacks downward momentum. Further upside is therefore expected with the next horizontal resistance and overlap set at 156.70 at first. A break above this level would call for further advance toward 158.05 in extension.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 156.70 and the second one, at 158.05. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 153.45 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 152.60. The pivot point is at 153.95.

Resistance levels: 156.70, 157.15, 158

Support levels: 153.45, 152.60, 152

 

[jebat66]

Wave summary:

The expected rally has failed miserably and we are currently seeing a test of the support line from 1.5784. This support-line near 1.6229 needs to protect the downside or we will have to review our count.

A break below 1.6229 could indicate that an even deeper corrective decline from 1.9023 is unfolding closer to support at 1.4938. This is not yet our preferred count, but an option we are currently considering.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6370 was hit and we will stand aside for now awaiting a more clear picture.

 

[radex78]

Yes I see gbpjpy on daily timeframe still, figure out bullish pattern today, since monday this pair has tendencies to bullish, and maybe this week still move bullish pattern but pair move still on 4 four timeframe,and might good put buy on low these range

 

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 14/04/2016:

The Australian job market data was released overnight. It turned out that the jobless rate is the lowest since October 2013. Market participants expected unemployment rate to increase from 5.8% to 5.9%, but instead the rate decreased to 5.7%. Moreover, the employment change data posted solid gains as well. The market expected +18.6K jobs, but the number revealed was at the level of 26.1K, the biggest one-off increase in 2016. In conclusion, it looks like the record-low interest rates are boosting the employment in Australia as the labor market is getting stronger and stronger. Thus, the Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to ease policy in the near-term.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/AUD technical picture in the daily time frame. We can see the market broke down from the rising wedge formations. Bears seems to be in control over this market now. If the level of 1.4670 is clearly violated, then the next support is at the level of 1.4471. Only a sustained break out back above the rising wedge top at the level of 1.5208 would put bulls back into control over this market, but it seems highly unlikely

 

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 14/04/2016:

The Bank of Canada maintained its key interest rate at 0.5% yesterday, just in line with market expectations. In the press conference, the BoC has justified its decision, saying the last quarter GDP growth was solid, but in their opinion is was merely a temporary improvement and it is very likely that effects will wave in the second quarter. Moreover, the BoC admitted that the Canadian economy is still trying to adjust to the current low oil price levels and they lowered the GDP growth projections for this year. In conclusion, the BoC is nowhere near the rate hike as the GDP is still not strong enough and the global headwinds might get even worse in the future.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/CAD technical picture on the daily timeframe. We can see the market just bounced from the important technical support at the level of 1.4390, but still trades below the 21,100 and the 200 DMA. Moreover, the long-term uprising dashed blue trendline had been broken as well, which supports the bearish outlook for this pair. The next support is seen at the level of 1.4031

 

[jebat66]

General overview for 14/04/2016:

The wave (b) blue of the internal corrective cycle might be about to complete as the first projected target level has been hit. The current corrective sub-wave (b) target is the yellow rectangle area. When the top for wave (b) is in place, then a downtrend should continue for at least one more wave. Please remember that this structure might evolve even further into a triple zig-zag pattern as well.

Support/Resistance:

1.2747 - Intraday Support

1.2772 - WS2

1.2856 - WS1

1.2884 - Intraday Resistance

1.3036 - Weekly Pivot

1.3126 - WR1

1.3218 - Local High

1.3295 - Swing High

1.3303 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should sell the market at the current prices with SL above the level of 1.2884 and TP at the level of 1.2700 (minimum).

 

[jebat66]

General overview for 14/04/2016:

The downward breakout wasn't strong enough to violate the important intraday level of 122.81, but there is still a chance the bears will do it later. Please note that the corrective cycle might evolve into a less complex and time-consuming pattern, especially if the intraday resistance at the level of 124.24 is clearly violated. For now, however, sideways price action below the weekly pivot is expected. An impulsive break out to the downside is also anticipated.

Support/Resistance:

122.53 - Intraday Support

122.81 - Key Level

124.11 - Weekly Pivot

124.24 - Intraday Resistance

125.66 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Traders should sell the triangle pattern area with SL above the level of 124.24 and TP at the lows of the triangle pattern around the level of 122.50.

 

[jebat66]

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is still seen to be holding well above $16.00 levels and might be looking to push through $16.40 levels before producing a meaningful retracement. The metal rallied past $16.30 levels yesterday, slightly above expectations, and might print yet another high before pulling back. The metal is sending mixed signals at the moment and hence it is recommended to remain flat for now, awaiting further confirmation for directions. Immediate resistance is seen at $16.35 levels, while support is at $16.00 levels respectively. Ideally, bears are expected to regain control soon since the metal should pull back lower before extending its rally.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now OR go aggressively short now, stop at $16.50, target is open.

Good luck!

 

[jebat66]

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold formed a bearish evening star candlestick pattern on the daily chart yesterday and continues to print lower lows today. The metal is trading at $1,232.00/33.00 levels at the moment and is expected to hit $1,140.00 levels in the coming sessions as depicted here. Please also note that the backside of the trendline which is support now, is also around the same region. It is hence recommended to remain short for now, with risk around $1,270.00 levels. Bears are expected to remain in control till prices stay below $1,262.00 levels from here on. Immediate resistance is seen at $1,262.00 levels, while support is at $1,207.00 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop at $1,270.00, target is $1,190 and $1,140.

Good luck!

 

[jebat66]

Wave summary:

Important support at 1.6229 has protected the downside nicely and the strong rally from the 1.6242 low does indicate that a firm low is in place. That also keeps our long-term count intact calling for a rally to 1.6830 and above here will call for an acceleration much higher.

In the short term, we are now looking for support near 1.6313 for the next rally higher to 1.6625 and 1.6830.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.6325 with stop placed at 1.6225