daily market outlook

[jebat66]

On January 28, the depicted support at 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 was executed a few weeks ago.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

The price zone of 0.6750-0.6840 constituted a significant resistance zone where signs of a bearish rejection were seen during the previous few weeks (triple-top reversal pattern).

On February 9, the NZD/USD pair failed to consolidate below the depicted support level of 0.6550.

Moreover, an obvious bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted temporary support level. Hence, the recent bullish swing towards 0.6750 and 0.6860 was initiated.

In March, an obvious bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed. Hence, these price levels now constitute recent support levels.

Bullish persistence above 0.6850 is mandatory to ensure further bullish advancement towards 0.7070 and 0.7170 where a prominent consolidation range was previously established in June 2015.

On the other hand, conservative traders can have a valid BUY entry around the current price level (0.6750). S/L should be located below 0.6700.

Note that a daily closure below 0.6750 invalidates the previous bullish breakout scenario allowing a quick bearish decline towards 0.6666 to occur.

 

[jebat66]

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.6768 in a high volume. EUR/NZD has broken the strong upward channel. So, buying opportunities are not preferable anymore. I found re-testing of a broken channel, which is a sign that we may expect downward price. I placed the Fibonacci expansion to find potential downward targets. I got the Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1.6705, Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.6680 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.6635.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6745

R2: 1.6765

R3: 1.6800

Support levels:

S1: 1.6670

S2: 1.6645

S3: 1.6610

Trading recommendation for today: Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies.

 

[jebat66]

A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart).

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Hence, another consolidation range was established from 1.3450 down to 1.2800.

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence, a bullish visit to the resistance level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was executed.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where an evident bearish rejection was expected (bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) stood as a significant key level to be watched for further price reactions.

Although the price zone of 1.3170-1.3250 was expected to offer bullish support for the USD/CAD pair, temporary bearish breakdown of the same price zone is being manifested on the daily chart.

This price zone corresponded to the depicted weekly uptrend line and the upper limit of the previous consolidation range (prominent breakout level).

Previously, the price level of 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a prominent support level which provided significant bullish rejection and prevented further bearish decline.

On the other hand, the price level of 1.3300 constituted a significant resistance level as it corresponded to the 50% Fibonacci level and the backside of the broken weekly uptrend where a valid sell entry was suggested on March 24.

Conservative traders should wait for a DAILY closure below 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) to SELL the USD/CAD pair. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.2770 and 1.2550.

 

[jebat66]

In November 2015, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 (the prominent key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (the monthly demand level) where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

During the last few weeks, a consolidation range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established on the daily chart. On February 3, a bullish breakout was executed above this consolidation range.

Consequently, a quick bullish movement started towards the zone of 1.1350-1.1400 where previous daily bottoms and the backside of the broken uptrend were depicted on the daily chart.

On February 12, a strong bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed near the mentioned supply zone. Hence, a quick bearish decline towards 1.1000 was executed.

A temporary bearish breakdown below 1.1000 (upper limit of the broken range) was seen on the daily chart. A quick bearish decline was expected towards 1.0820 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

Recently, bullish fixation above 1.1000 has been mandatory to allow bullish movement to continue. Bullish targets were expected around 1.1320 and 1.1400.

Similar to what happened on February 12, the supply zone of 1.1320-1.1400 stands as a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair to offer bearish rejection and a valid sell entry.

A daily breakdown below the depicted uptrend line (around the 1.1320 level) is needed to ensure enough bearish momentum in the market.

Trading Recommendation:

A valid sell entry can be offered around the supply zone around 1.1400. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1200 and 1.1070. S/L should be placed above 1.1460.

Conservative traders can wait for a daily closure below 1.1300 (prominent demand level and uptrend line) to sell the EUR/USD pair. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.1150 and 1.1080.

 

[jebat66]

Since our previous analysis, gold has been moving upwards. As i expected, the price tested the level of $1,239.39 in a high volume. I found strong upward pressure today and my advice is to watch for buying opportunities. I found a successful test bar in a low volume at the price of $1,234.20, which is a sign that professional money is interested in buying positions today. The first take profit level is set at the price of $1,239.40 and the second take profit level is set at the price of $1,243.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,229.50

R2: 1,236.00

R3: 1,242.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,216.40

S2: 1,210.60

S3: 1,203.80

Trading recommendations for today: watch for buying opportunities on dips.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair dropped sharply from the level of 0.9630 towards 0.9530. Now, the price is set at 0.9580. On the daily chart, the resistance of the USD/CHF pair is seen at the level of 0.9636 and 0.9721. Additionally, if the USD/CHF pair is able to break out the bottom at 0.9530, the trend will be called for a strong bearish market. The RSI starts signaling a downward trend. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 0.9640 with the first target at 0.9530 and further to 0.9492 in order to test the daily support. If the USD/CHF pair is able to break out the daily support at 0.9492, the market will decline further to 0.9410 to approach support 2 today. However, the price spot of 0.9410 and 0.9400 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bullish as long as the level of 0.9400 is not breached.

Trading recommendation:

The resistance is seen at the level of 0.9636. Hence, sell orders are recommended below the area of 0.9636 with the first target at the level of 0.9530; and continue towards 0.9410. On the other hand, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break out through the resistance level of 0.9721; the market will rise further to the level of 0.9868.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair continues moving downwards from the level of 0.6845. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.6845 (this level of 0.6845 coincides with a minor resistance) to the bottom around 0.6800. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6845 followed by 0.6860, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6723. So, the pair is trading below its resistance. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the level of 0.6845. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from a new resistance line of 0.6845 towards the first support level at 0.6723 in order to test it. In the hourly time frame: if the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6723 the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6723. In other words, sell orders are recommended below the spot of 0.6845 with the first target at the level of 0.6723; and continue towards 0.6667. However, if the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.6860 today, the market will rise further to 0.6964 so as to retest the double top.

 

[jebat66]

The ECB released the minutes of its March policy meeting. The regulator implemented several significant monetary steps, including lowering all three of its interest rates and increasing its asset-purchase program (QE) from EUR 60 billion to 80 billion/mth. Moreover, the main refinancing rate was cut from 0.05% to a flat 0.0%. Besides, the ECB has pumped some EUR 700 billion into its asset-purchase program. Nevertheless, the results are disappointing, as eurozone continues grappling with weak growth and inflation levels. The minutes indicated that the ECB Governing Council was broadly unified behind ECB president Mario Draghi, supporting the monetary package, which the ECB adopted at the March meeting. In conclusion, the minutes acknowledged a difficult situation of the Eurozone economy, noting that the pace of recovery is expected to remain weak and uncertainties in the global economic environment will pose significant risks to eurozone.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/AUD technical picture in the daily time frame. Recently this market has hit the resistance at the level of 1.5208 trading in a narrow rising edge formation. If this formation is violated to the downside, then the bears will be in control of this market once again and they might push the prices lower towards the next important support at the level of 1.4471.

 

[jebat66]

Fed's Chair Janet Yellen said yesterday that the US central bank had not made a mistake by hiking interest rates in December. It is an action that was followed by massive turbulence in financial markets and further weakening of the global economy. She added that the US economy remains on a solid ground with some signs of inflation, decreasing unemployment, and increasing average hourly pay. That means that inflation would not be held down much longer by a strong US dollar and low oil prices. In conclusion, the Fed remains on track for further interest rate increases as long as the data justify such a move.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market has made some kind of a temporary local high at the level of 1.1452 and now the bears are trying to regain the control over it. Any break out below the support at the level of 1.1343 will confirm the view of the bearish correction to come soon

 

[jebat66]

General overview for 08/04/2016:

The detailed count in the H1 time frame is showing the current wave development in two counts: main and alternative. The main count is still indicating one more wave to the downside to complete wave Z brown, but the alternative count is pointing out that a possible impulsive wave progression to the upside has already started. Nevertheless, any break out below the level of 1.3000 will invalidate this view.

Support/Resistance:

1.2814 - WS1

1.2850 - Swing Low

1.3000 - Invalidation Level

1.3048 - Weekly Pivot

1.3184 - Intraday Resistance

1.3146 - WR1

1.3241 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should place buy stop orders at the level of 1.3148 with SL below the level of 1.3000 and TP open for now. Any big, impulsive, long hourly candle that breaks above the intraday resistance might suggest that bulls are back in control and we will try to join them

 

[jebat66]

General overview for 08/04/2016:
The current wave development looks corrective as the wave (b) blue unfolds. The projected target for this wave is at the level of 124.69 where the downtrend should resume. Please notice that the wave (b) might be more complex in price and time than a simple ABC correction and full of whipsaws and false breakouts.

Support/Resistance:

124.41 - WS3

125.41 - WS2

126.24 - WS1

127.22 - Weekly Pivot

128.05 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Traders should refrain from trading and wait for another trading setup to occur

 

[jebat66]

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.6824 in a high volume. EUR/NZD has broken the downward channel (bullsh flag). So, selling opportunities are not preferable anymore. I found retesting of a broken channel (1.6720), which is a sign that we may expect an upward price. The first take profit level is set at the price of 1.6823.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6825

R2: 1.6865

R3: 1.6940

Support levels:

S1: 1.6680

S2: 1.6640

S3: 1.6570

Trading recommendation for today: Watch for buying opportunities on dips

 

[jebat66]

Since our previous analysis, gold has been moving sideywas around the price of $1,235.00 in a high volume. I found a trading range between the prices of $1,238.10 (resistance) and $1,229.40 (support). Watch for a potential breakout of the trading range in a high volume to confirm further movements. I also found a downward channel and the price respects very well this channel. Selling positions are preferable. The first take profit is set at support ($1,229.40).

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,241.00

R2: 1,245.90

R3: 1,252.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,227.60

S2: 1,223.00

S3: 1,216.30

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for a potential breakout of the trading range to confirm further direction. Since i found the downward channel, selling positions are preferable.

 

[jebat66]

After major support breakout below 0.7350, EUR/CAD continues trading below the 00 Moving Average. The Fibonacci applied to the first corrective wave after the breakout indicates that the 161.8% level has been broke while 261.8 has not been reached yet.

Currently price is forming a resistance around the 0.7300 psychological level, which had been rejected once. All in all, the trend is bearish and the pair is very likely to continue going lower if 0.7300 holds.

Consider selling CAD/CHF at the current level targeting either S2 (0.7190) or S3 (0.7125) as a final target. The stop loss should be well above R1 (0.7300)

Support: 0.7260, 0.7190, 0.7125

Resistance: 0.7300, 0.7370

 

[jebat66]

EUR/CAD continues trading above the 200 Moving average and has re-tested and rejected the MA breakout point for several times. Overall price bounce off all 3 support levels of the Fibonacci applied to the channel breakout point.

At the same time the R1 (1.4960) resistance has been broken opening doors for further rise. Currently, price is trading very near S1 (1.4850) which was rejected just yesterday.

Consider buying EUR/CAD at the current level, targeting R2 (1.5130) level and stop loss well below S1.

Support: 1.4850, 1.4760, 1.4670

Resistance: 1.4960, 1.5130

 

[jebat66]

On January 28, the depicted support at 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 was executed a few weeks ago.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

The price zone of 0.6750-0.6840 constituted a significant resistance zone where signs of a bearish rejection were seen during the previous few weeks (triple-top reversal pattern).

On February 9, the NZD/USD pair failed to consolidate below the depicted support level of 0.6550.

Moreover, an obvious bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted temporary support level. Hence, the recent bullish swing towards 0.6750 and 0.6860 was initiated.

In March, an obvious bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed. Hence, these price levels now constitute recent support levels.

Conservative traders were advised to have a valid BUY entry around the price level of 0.6750. S/L should be located below 0.6700.

Today, bullish persistence above 0.6850 is mandatory to ensure further bullish advancement towards 0.7070 and 0.7170 where a prominent consolidation range was previously established in June 2015.

 

[jebat66]

Currently USD/CAD is trading near the 1.2860 level where the pair found the support previously, and now a potential double bottom is forming. Everything is pointing to a strong support.

The Fibonacci applied to the channel breakout point shows that the price is rejecting the 0% Fibs level, which is the final downside target. At the same time 261.8% (S1) of the Fibs applied to the first corrective wave after the channel's breakout is right at the same level and is also being rejected. Besides, the price is right at the previously formed low and finally the RSI oscillator is forming a bullish divergence.

Everything is in favor of a potential reversal, and a correction up might follow. Consider buying USD/CAD while the price is near S1 (1.2850), targeting one of the resistance levels with the R5 (1.3100) being the final target. Alternatively consider a stop and reverse if the price manages to get below 1.2840 as this could trigger another wave down to test 361.8% Fibs level - S2 (1.2785)

Support: 1.2850, 1.2785

Resistance: 1.2930, 1.2980, 1.3015, 1.3055, 1.3100

 

[jebat66]

After the breakout of the uptrend trend line, the price dropped substantially and the pair found the support at 0% (S2) Fibonacci level applied to the trend line's breakout point. At the same time, a strong support is formed at the 361.8% (S1) Fibs applied to the first corrective wave after the trend line's breakout.

All in all, the price does not look like moving lower the strong support area between 2.0550 and 2.0650, which could lead to a correctional move up.

Consider buying GBP/NZD on small pullbacks towards S1 (2.0650) targeting one of the resistance levels with the R4 (2.1140) area being the final target. Ideally the stop loss should be just below S2 (2.0550) but with more aggressive trading it could be also placed below S1 (2.0650).

Support:2.0550, 2.0650

Resistance: 2.0780, 2.0920, 2.1030, 2.1140

 

[jebat66]

A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart).

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Hence, another consolidation range was established from 1.3450 down to 1.2800.

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence, a bullish visit to the resistance at 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) occured.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where an evident bearish rejection was expected (bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The 1.4120 level (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) stood as a significant key level to be watched for further price reactions.

Although the 1.3170-1.3250 area was expected to offer bullish support for the USD/CAD pair, temporary bearish breakdown of the same price zone can be seen on the daily chart.

This price zone corresponds to the depicted weekly uptrend line and the upper limit of the previous consolidation range (prominent breakout level).

Previously, the 1.2975 level (61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a prominent support which provided significant bullish rejection and prevented further decline.

On the other hand, the 1.3300 level constitutes a significant resistance as it corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci level and the backside of the broken weekly uptrend where a valid sell entry was suggested on March 24.

Those who missed the initial trade should consider the current daily closure below 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) as a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.2770 and 1.2550.

 

[jebat66]

In November 2015, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 (the prominent key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (the monthly demand level) where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

During the last few weeks, a consolidation range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established on the daily chart. On February 3, a bullish breakout was executed above this consolidation range.

Consequently, a quick bullish movement started towards the zone of 1.1350-1.1400 where previous daily bottoms and the backside of the broken uptrend were depicted on the daily chart.

On February 12, a strong bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed near the mentioned supply zone. Hence, a quick bearish decline towards 1.1000 was executed.

A temporary bearish breakdown below 1.1000 (upper limit of the broken range) was seen on the daily chart. A quick bearish decline was expected towards 1.0820 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

Recently, bullish fixation above 1.1000 has been mandatory to allow bullish movement to continue. Bullish targets were expected around 1.1320 and 1.1400.

Similar to what happened on February 12, the supply zone of 1.1320-1.1400 stands as a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair to offer bearish rejection and a valid sell entry.

A daily breakdown below the depicted uptrend line (around the 1.1320 level) is needed to ensure enough bearish momentum in the market.

Trading Recommendation:

For risky traders, a valid sell entry could be offered around the supply zone near 1.1400. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1200 and 1.1070. S/L should be placed above 1.1480.

Conservative traders should wait for a daily closure below 1.1300 (a prominent demand level and the uptrend line) to sell the EUR/USD pair. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.1150 and 1.1080.