daily market outlook

[jebat66]

General overview for 18/04/2016:

The impulsive wave progression to the downside is developing as anticipated. The wave 3 purple of the overall five waves was made and now the market is in corrective cycle, wave 4. The correction can evolve into complex and time-consuming pattern, but cannot violate the level of 122.75. When the weekend gap is filled, the market should reverse and move lower to complete the impulsive progression.

Support/Resistance:

121.27 - WS1

121.69 - Intraday Support

122.53 - Intraday Resisance

122.63 - Weekly Pivot

122.72 - Invalidation Level

123.12 - WR1

124.21 - Technical Resistance

124.48 - WR2

124.98 - WR3

Trading recommendations:

Traders who are still short ( as recommended last week), should move the SL just above the level of 122.73 and set TP at the level of 121.27.

 

[jebat66]

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is trading at $16.10/15 levels for now, after hitting $16.37 levels earlier as expected. The metal has taken out resistance at $16.35 levels, completing a 5-wave rally from $13.70 levels, as depicted here on the 4H chart. Please note that the next high probable direction is expected on the lower side, towards 15.40/50 levels, as shown with an arrow here. It is recommended to initiate short positions now, with risk above $16.40 levels respectively. Immediate resistance is at $16.35/40 levels, while support is at $15.90 levels respectively. Bears are expected to remain in control till prices remain below $16.40 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short now, stop is at 16.50 levels, target is at 14.40/50 levels.

Good luck!

 

[jebat66]

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is trading at $1,235.00/36.00 levels at this moment, looking to hit $1,247.00/48.00 levels before turning lower again. The yellow metal looks to be in a counter trend rally before resuming its down trend. Please note that the metal earlier reversed from $1,283.00 levels, dropping lower into $1,207.00 levels (not depicted here). Furthermore, the metal reversed from $1,262.00 levels (the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above drop), indicating deeper correction ahead. It is hence recommended to sell into rallies at $1,248.00 levels, with risk at $1,263.00 levels for now. Immediate resistance is seen at $1,248.00/50.00 levels, while support is at $1,222.00 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Look to sell around $1,248.00/50.00 levels, stop is at $1,263.00, target is $1,190.00.

Good luck!

 

[jebat66]

EUR/USD: The bias on this market is getting neutral owing to the consolidation that was witnessed in the last two weeks. Even last week, the price merely corrected a bit lower. This week, the support lines at 1.1250 and 1.1200 should prevent further southwards movement, as the bulls effect a nice rally, which would take the price towards the resistance lines at 1.1400 and 1.1450. Some EUR pairs could also rally this week

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair set above strong support at the level of 0.7000, which coincides with yesterday's bottom. This support has been rejected for four times confirming uptrend veracity. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 0.6955 because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend from the area of 0.6955 and 0.7000. The NZD/USD pair is trading in a bullish trend from the last support line of 0.6955 towards the first resistance level at 0.7050 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7075 and further to the level of 0.7100. The level of 0.7100 will act as second resistance and the new double top is already set at the point of 0.7100. At the same time, if a breakout happens at the support levels of 0.7000 and 0.6955, then this scenario may be invalidated. But in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair faced strong support at the level of 0.9620 because resistance became support. So, the strong support has been already faced at the level of 0.9620 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. Also, it should be noted that the level of 0.9620 represents a daily pivot point for that it is acting as minor support today. Furthermore, the USD/CHF pair is continuing to trade in a bearish trend below the new support level of 0.9620. Currently, the price is in a bearish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to move between 0.9650 and 0.9500. Also, it should be noticed that the double bottom is set at 0.9500. Additionally, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is downward as it remains strong below the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go down in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. In other words, sell orders are recommended below 0.9620 with the first target at the level of 0.9500. If the trend is able to break the double bottom at the level of 0.9500, then the market will continue falling towards the daily support 1 at 0.9460.

 

[jebat66]

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As I expected, the price reached our first take profit level at 1.6135. According to the daily time frame, I found that supply is still present in the market and buying at this stage looks risky. Anyway, successful breakout of pivotal point 1.6135 will confirm further downward continuation and potential testing of 1.5850 (second take profit level). If price doesn't break 1.6135, we may see upward movement and potential testing of 1.6260. So far, the level of 1.6135 held successfully.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6420

R2: 1.6470

R3: 1.6550

Support levels:

S1: 1.6250

S2: 1.6200

S3: 1.6120

Trading recommendation for today: Observe pivotal point at 1.6135 to make final decision. Successful breakout of 1.6135 will confirm lower price but the successful rejection of 1.6135 will confirm further upward movement.

 

[jebat66]

Since our previous analysis, gold has been moving upwards. The price tested the $1,246.09 level in a ultra high volume. On the daily time frame chart, I found that a head and shoulders pattern (topping formation) is forming. I have placed Fibonacci retracement and found 38.2% at the $1,238.00 level (successfully held). On the 15M time frame chart, I found a strong sign of weakness. We can observe a volume spike which is a buying climax (wide spread of the bar in a ultra high volume). Later on, I found no demand bars which is a clear intraday sell signal. Be careful when buying gold at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities. Take profit level should be set at $1,228.50.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,239.90

R2: 1,243.00

R3: 1,248.45

Support levels:

S1: 1,229.25

S2: 1,225.95

S3: 1,220.65

Trading recommendations for today: Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities.

 

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 19/04/2016:

China is the worlds biggest producer and consumer of gold. It has overtaken India as the largest consumer as rising incomes and surging economic growth boosted purchases of jewelry, bars, and coins. Recently they have started a daily price fixing in an attempt to establish a regional benchmark and expand their influence on the global markets, especially London. Moreover, the central bank has been adding to its bullion stockpiles in order to diversify foreign-exchange reserves. In conclusion, today's Chinese gold market capacity and potential are huge and their recent move will help enhance the impact of the renminbi on gold pricing.

Let's now take a look at the yellow metal technical picture in the daily time frame. The market is still trading around the recent highs and the golden trend line still provides a valid support. Nevertheless, some first signs of a potential head and shoulders (H&S) pattern are visible. Any break out below the golden trend line ( neck line) will result in sell-off towards the level of 1191.

 

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 19/04/2016:

The New York Fed President William Dudley spoke yesterday about the future Fed policy concerning the interest rates. In his opinion the current economic environment is highly in favor of a further rate hike, but the Fed remains cautious and data depended. He reiterated, that he was confident that too low inflation would climb to a 2% target over the next few years if the current economic growth is sustained. In conclusion, his speech was very hawkish and in favor of a next rate hike. Please remember, that Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen reiterated in the last conference speech that two more rate hikes this year are still on the table.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the 4H time frame. The yellow rectangle congestion zone was broken to the downside and now the market is testing it from the downside. A failure to break out higher is anticipated here and another lower low should happen soon. Only a sustained violation of the recent high at the level of 1.1465 would put bulls back to control, otherwise bears are still the major force in this market.

 

[jebat66]

General overview for 19/04/2016:

The impulsive wave progression to the downside was invalidated due to wave 1 and wave 4 overlaps. Currently the main count points out a possible upward continuation as the new swing low might be in place. Break out above the technical resistance at the level of 124.21 supports the view.

Support/Resistance:

121.27 - WS1

121.69 - Intraday Support

122.63 - Weekly Pivot

123.12 - WR1

124.21 - Technical Resistance

124.48 - WR2

124.98 - WR3

Trading recommendations:

All sell orders from last week should now be closed with profit. Traders should now stay aside from the market and wait for the next trading setup to occur shortly.

 

[jebat66]

General overview for 19/04/2016:

The wave (b) top seems to be in place as the new low in this pair was made. Nevertheless, there is still one more lower low anticipated in this market before any meaningful correction to the upside would take place. Moreover, any breakout higher above the intraday resistance might result in more complex and time-consuming wave iv progression.

Support/Resistance:

1.2643 - WS2

1.2740 - Local Low

1.2808 - WS1

1.2817 - Intraday Resistance

1.2912 - Weekly Pivot

1.2989 - Intraday Resistance

1.3080 - WR1

1.3181 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

All sell orders from yesterday hit the TP and were closed with profit. Currently traders should stay aside and wait for another setup to occur shortly.

 

[jebat66]

Wave summary:

EUR/NZD keeps moving lower and the break below support at 1.6229 tells us that the correction in wave [ii] is not over yet as expected. This is both very confusing and frustrating but we must accept the price action and should see one more decline to just below 1.6125, but not below the important support at 1.5813.

Short-term resistance is seen at 1.6243 and only a break above here indicates a low is in place, while a break above resistance at 1.6499 will be needed to confirm the low.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6225 was hit for a loss and we will buy EUR at 1.6105 with stop placed at 1.5810, OR we will buy a break above 1.6364 with a stop 5 pips below the most recent low.

 

[arigoldman]

Useful analysis for the EUR/NZD, thank you.

 

[jebat66]

In November 2015, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 (the prominent key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (the monthly demand level) where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

During the last few weeks, a consolidation range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established on the daily chart. On February 3, a bullish breakout was executed above this consolidation range.

Consequently, a quick bullish movement started towards the zone of 1.1350-1.1400 where previous daily bottoms and the backside of the broken uptrend were depicted on the daily chart.

On February 12, a strong bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed near the mentioned supply zone. Hence, a quick bearish decline towards 1.1000 was executed.

A temporary bearish breakdown below 1.1000 (upper limit of the broken consolidation range) was seen on the daily chart. A quick bearish decline was expected towards 1.0820 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

On March 10, bullish fixation above 1.1000 was mandatory to allow bullish movement to continue. Bullish targets were projected towards 1.1320 and 1.1400.

Similar to what happened on February 12, the supply zone of 1.1320-1.1400 stood as a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair which offered bearish rejection and a valid sell entry on April 12.

The Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is being expressed around this supply zone. Hence, a valid SELL entry can be offered around the price area of 1.1350-1.1400 (the right shoulder of the reversal pattern).

Moreover, daily closure below the price level of 1.1320 is needed to ensure further bearish momentum in the market.

Trading Recommendation:

In the previous articles, a valid sell entry was suggested around the supply zone of 1.1400. It's already running in profits. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1200 and 1.1070. S/L should be placed above 1.1450.

Other traders can have a valid SELL entry around the current price zone of 1.1350-1.1400. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.1250, 1.1150, and 1.1080.

 

[jebat66]

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.6238 in a high volume. According to the daily time frame, I found that strong demand in a high volume entered the market. The pivotal point at 1.6135 held very successfully and we may see further upward movement. Watch for buying opportunities on the dips. First upward take profit level is set at the price of 1.6270. If the price breaks the level of 1.6270 in a high volume, we may even see testing of 1.6470 (pivotal point). According to the 4H time frame, I found sign of strength in a high volume at the pivotla point, which is sign that selling looks risky.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6230

R2: 1.6270

R3: 1.6340

Support levels:

S1: 1.6097

S2: 1.6050

S3: 1.5990

Trading recommendation for today: Watch for buying opportunities on the dips. I found successfull rejection from pivotal point at 1.6135. Next upward target is set at the price of 1.6270 (pivotal point).

 

[jebat66]

Since our previous analysis, gold has been moving upwards. The price tested the $1,257.78 level in a high volume. According to the 30M time frame chart, I found a successful test of supply in a low volume, which is a sign that selling gold looks risky. Watch for intraday buying opportunities. Support level at the price of $1,245.15 held successfully. The first upward take profit is set at the price of $1,256.45.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,256.00

R2: 1,262.40

R3: 1,272.90

Support levels:

S1: 1,235.00

S2: 1,228.50

S3: 1,218.00

Trading recommendations for today: Be careful when selling and watch for potential buying opportunities.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair set above strong support at the level of 0.6951, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected four times confirming uptrend veracity. Thus, major support is seen at the level of 0.6951 because the trend is still showing strength above it. Consequently, the pair is still in the uptrend from the area of 0.6951 and 0.7000. The NZD/USD pair is trading in a bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7000 towards the first resistance level at 0.7053 in order to test it. From this point, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. So, it will be good to buy above the level of 0.7000 with the first target at 0.7053 and further to 0.7075. If the USD/CHF pair is able to break out the daily resistance at 0.7075, the market will rise further to 0.7100 to approach support 2 today. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7000 and further to the level of 0.7075. However, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 0.6951 is not broken.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair dropped sharply from the level of 0.9680 towards 0.9592. Now, the price is set at 0.9608 to act as a daily pivot point. In the H4 time frame, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between 0.9680 and 0.9572. Furthermore, the price is set below strong resistance at the levels of 0.9680 and 0.9720, which coincides with minor resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the USD/CHF pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 0.9680. Thereupon, the price spot of 0.9680 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, a possibility that the USD/CHF pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.9680, sell below 0.9680 with the first targets at 0.9572 and 0.9500 (the double bottom is seen at 0.9785). However, stop loss should be located above the level of 0.9760.

 

[jebat66]

Global macro analysis for 20/04/2016:

The German ZEW data published yesterday was a big surprise for market participants. The main benchmark for the economic sentiment improved to the level of 11.2 from 4.3 a month ago, which was even better than the expected number of 8.2 points. This was a big improvement from the lowest level since October 2014 that was registered in February. Meanwhile, the index of eurozone economic sentiment unexpectedly soared to 21.5 in April from 10.6 a month earlier, settling well above forecasts for a reading of 13.9. In conclusion, these readings might suggest that the German economy is performing very well and investors are looking positively into the future.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the 4H time frame. The bearish flag pattern might be forming in this time frame as indicated by the dashed blue lines. To confirm this pattern, bears must break out below the lower flag line and head lower towards the recent support at the level of 1.1232. Successful violation of this level would mean that they are in full control over this market. Any new high above the level of 1.1465 will invalidate this view.