RedDuke,
I disagree with your assessment of the Stoxx future. If it is ever dull, it's because the DAX/overall market is dull.
The DAX is also known as the "Dancing DAX" for good reasons - incredible volatility at times, relative lack of liquidity/decent size on bid/offer. I've always believed that if someone can make a profit on the DAX, they'll do twice as good on the Stoxx as they move in step to a very high degree (95%?). However, the Stoxx has greater liquidity/depth/size, regularly trades over 1m - 1.5m contracts a day, and is less volatile.
The tick value is only half that of the DAX but I reckon you can trade twice your size of the DAX without a corresponding increase in risk. Do I trade it? No, there's still too much heat for me at the moment.
Hello HS,
You alright, mate?
Before betting against 3 or 4 centuries please read these short reports:
Wave of Write-Offs Rattles Market - WSJ.com
Hedge Funds' Fire Sales Send Muni-Bond Yields To Historic High Levels - WSJ.com
Also watch the video, “Oil Breaks New Ground” – worrying.
What is the probability of another 1 or 2 centuries? Pretty high, I reckon. We are in pretty dire times, the likes of which have not been seen since 1929(?). Bernanke said he expects some banks to fail. I would suggest the current background is worse than ’87.
Grant (Chief Strategist, Goldman Sachs).