Currency Trading May 7 - 11

[jacinto]

Interesting week ahead:

Interest rate decisions may or may not end up playing their hand?
UK to raise rates by 25 or 50 basis points, or not at all? Where would the surprise be?

Market ended within the "bigger picture" range, so we cant really talk about reversals yet. Cable printed a rather large Doji on the weekly chart closing within the range, but also printing an outside bar, so in principle: Could we say that there is a bearish bias?

However....... other dollar pairs can be giving hints of overall dollar direction in the coming weeks. Will post charts later.

Edit: Cable has an up channel that appears broken.

Good trading

j

 

[jacinto]

USDYEN:

This pair has a rather interesting long opportunity and could be a "hint" for possible dollar strength in the coming weeks. see chart. looking for pullbacks to the 120-119.50 areas for swing entries.

USDCHF
pressuring a downtrend. Entry at current levels is an early entry for a long, I will keep an eye on breaks north.

good trading

j

 

[oiltanker]

as banks are still off loading dollars to buy euros [as the euro tries to become the oil currency] i can't see much change in the long term. any dollar strength might prompt sells and any euro weakness might/will prompt buys [on the dips].

so its looks like a game of where the support and resistance is.

today looks like a quiet morning and will wait for ny to wake up before deciding direction.

 

[JohnG FX]

Morning all,

Well I'm looking for one more ITD pop up into Sunday/Monday open, ideal target would be 2.0060/70 area although it could well overshoot if the NFP is bad. Then looking to be taking shorts early Monday for the bigger leg down.

Support today at the the .682 and .382 fibs @ 9797 and 9780.

Gone long this morning @ 9865 stop 9778 although also downside protected by the 9880 and 9800 puts.

Of course it's all down to the NFP so I am probably 100% incorrect [/QUOTE

Morning everyone

Well NFP was bad but we didn't get much of a move up (yet ?)

I have to go with my original call, ITD high is due and all my charts are showing negative D and pointing down.

Just covered the 9865 long and reversed short @ 9964 but am prepared to add further up to 2.0060.

Although we could well flatine into the MPC, ECB and FOMC midweek.

 

[brutusdog]

short eur/jpy. 16323 10pip target.

 

[2be]

French election result should be EUR positive in a longer term with USD and GBP losing to EUR in its own way, however since January EUR has been gaining on GBP and both EUR and GBP have been gaining on USD. USD weakness might still continue for a long time, as it suits the US economy at the moment. The strength of GBP againts weak USD and at the same time weakness of GBP against EUR might be a warning that GBP is on a journey to get even weaker and the rise in the interest rates is just a natural reaction to slow internal inflation, possibly not having a long time effect on the overall strength of GBP. If there are more then two/three interest raise later on in the year followed by GBP decline, it might finally get the message through that the UK consumes more that it is able to generate. I have used weekly charts to compare the above, so the time frame is a long term one.

 

[trendie]

any trades today, anyone?

(got up late, so didnt start until about 10am. no real volatility, so null day today for me)

EDIT: turning into a pin-bar to the downside, similar to Apr-25th?
alos a narrow range day, although not sure about significance, as its Monday.

 

[pipper]

I closed out my short EURUSD position that I was holding since last week earlier today for a profit of 74 pips.

Other than that, no action for me. Things are pretty slow today.

 

[JohnG FX]

Holding 9964 short, first target 9770 could well take till thursday to get there but content to hold,

Also holding short GBPJPY from 239.34 a longer term trade and targeting a 238 break for 233

 

[jacinto]

any trades today, anyone?

yep, bought a house today. the only trade today. no screentime for me. will be moving soon to gloucestershire. cheltenham to be precise

j

just saw the charts. looks like a boring day. good i didnt stay. lets see what is there tomorrow.

 

[Doctor Leo]

Target on cable 19705. May reach even this week.

 

[trendie]

yesterday, I got myself a copy of Fooled by Randomness, by Nassim Taleb.
guess I know what I will be reading in between trades. (just as soon as I finish "Cosmic Ordering")

how do you spend the "down-time", when you can do nothing except wait?
this is because I trade cable on 30-mins, and all others on 4-hrs.
(or are you monitoring too many pairs to have a break?)

 

[jacinto]

Target on cable 19705. May reach even this week.

where do you get that target from Dr Leo? would be interesting to know

j

 

[Priceman]

yep, bought a house today. the only trade today. no screentime for me. will be moving soon to gloucestershire. cheltenham to be precise

j

just saw the charts. looks like a boring day. good i didnt stay. lets see what is there tomorrow.

OMG I'm getting married in Cheltenham in October!! Spooky. No real trading for me for ages for various reasons. Good to see new faces posting on here though with fresh input although not many ideas as usual to why they chose their levels and targets. Is this because people don't want to give their 'grail' away or just that they don't want to look silly?

Anyway, good luck all as usual. I'll be watching :cheesy:

 

[JohnG FX]

Good to see new faces posting on here though with fresh input although not many ideas as usual to why they chose their levels and targets. Is this because people don't want to give their 'grail' away or just that they don't want to look silly?

Anyway, good luck all as usual. I'll be watching :cheesy:

Attached is an overview of my forecast on cable for the next 2 months and what I will be trading

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Hi All.

Hope you’ve all enjoyed the holiday.



Selling USD/JPY tonight at 120.10 (looking for 119.30)

SL at 120.45





First of the week……



TPF

 

[Doctor Leo]

Target for cable - well, easy, high at 20075, mid-point 19890, and it's already broken. But personally I do not trade such long moves, will see what happens. Though I keep in mind the declining sentiment and this target. That's it.

 

[Doctor Leo]

Hi All.

Hope you’ve all enjoyed the holiday.



Selling USD/JPY tonight at 120.10 (looking for 119.30)

SL at 120.45





First of the week……



TPF

Nice... I'm having a target at 120.45 exactly

 

[Doctor Leo]

how do you spend the "down-time", when you can do nothing except wait?

For example, I'm currently working on a very interesting and complex design - an exclusive booklet for an exhibition

 

[jacinto]

thanks Dr Leo

j

I actually have 9740 as an initial down target.