Crazy returns!? Or are they???

exactly --- I would rather have 1% of £1000,000 than 100% of £100 --

only those with balls of steel need apply...
 
FXSCALPER2 said:
You will not compound it most likely. You may make 5k from a 5k account but use the money. Even if you don't use them money, it becomes harder and harder psychologically as your account increases.

You don't need to risk 15%. You can do it risking 5%.
Click to expand...

I totally agree to this point. I knew a FXSolution FX trader he always did really well. He KNEW these numbers were achievable/sustainable. SO he leveraged 400:1 and started betting big.

I MEAN BIG... Example, let's say he only wanted to lose at max -5% per pick. He'd invest 95% of account and let the -5% Margin call be his stop loss. I asked him one day about this, and he said,"A Brokers Margin Call are more Guarateed than any of my stop losses."

Now this guy was a great trader before this experiment. And he truly thought he had found the answer. +500% months were not unheard of and he was burning money left and right (SHOWBOATING like crazy and going to the Casino's etc...)

People dont realise the temptations at returns of +25k, +50k, +100k, +200k. etc... Imagine one day of trading and BAMM 30k. "WOW I can go out and buy a nice car today".

Needless to say he's out of the game now. It all caught up to him on a crazy (Italian) Prime Minister saying some comment about changing their currency or some BS like that. EUR/USD moved to fast and he got crushed. But the worst part is, this guy could trade and would have made a lifetime of this game. Sometimes, conventional thinking is the mainstream for a reason.
 
luckyd1976 said:
I totally agree to this point. I knew a FXSolution FX trader he always did really well. He KNEW these numbers were achievable/sustainable. SO he leveraged 400:1 and started betting big.

I MEAN BIG... Example, let's say he only wanted to lose at max -5% per pick. He'd invest 95% of account and let the -5% Margin call be his stop loss. I asked him one day about this, and he said,"A Brokers Margin Call are more Guarateed than any of my stop losses."

Now this guy was a great trader before this experiment. And he truly thought he had found the answer. +500% months were not unheard of and he was burning money left and right (SHOWBOATING like crazy and going to the Casino's etc...)

People dont realise the temptations at returns of +25k, +50k, +100k, +200k. etc... Imagine one day of trading and BAMM 30k. "WOW I can go out and buy a nice car today".

Needless to say he's out of the game now. It all caught up to him on a crazy (Italian) Prime Minister saying some comment about changing their currency or some BS like that. EUR/USD moved to fast and he got crushed. But the worst part is, this guy could trade and would have made a lifetime of this game. Sometimes, conventional thinking is the mainstream for a reason.
Click to expand...

He lost it all on one trade?
 
Lee Shepherd said:
is a good book by Nassim Nicholas taleb
Click to expand...

He's made a career out of randomness. I'm reading "The Black Swan", also very good.
I find interesting examples of their existence, but the problem is that you don't know they are there until they are on you.

Human nature is to bolt the stabledoor after the horse has gone, when exactly the same occurrence will never happen again and you did not know that you had a horse, anyway.
 
I sort of like Taleb: you have to admire someone who makes a career out of telling us, ad nauseum,that 'sh!t happens'.

What is amusing is the number of people Taleb assists psychologically. After all, if the successful guys are just lucky fools, I am at least not a fool even if I can't trade my way out of a paper bag.

Nice trade off that for a race which has zero expectancy (since you will die) but needs to have its ego massaged while waiting to shuffle off this mortal coil.
 
FXSCALPER2 said:
I sort of like Taleb: you have to admire someone who makes a career out of telling us, ad nauseum,that 'sh!t happens'.

What is amusing is the number of people Taleb assists psychologically. After all, if the successful guys are just lucky fools, I am at least not a fool even if I can't trade my way out of a paper bag.

Nice trade off that for a race which has zero expectancy (since you will die) but needs to have its ego massaged while waiting to shuffle off this mortal coil.
Click to expand...

It's a wake up call but I can't, for the life of me, recall what it was that woke me up.

Maybe something easy will happen to make me famous, like those two scientists (?) who thought that there was bird**** in their satellite dish and discovered how the universe was created. I wouldn't know what to do with a discovery like that but I'm sure that there is something simpler around that I could handle.
 
lol .. yeah but it can work the other way to... a poor girl got hit and killed by a branch falling from a tree here in London the other day ???? talk about a black swan !! they do exist.... but thankfully they are very rare...
 
FXSCALPER2 said:
He lost it all on one trade?
Click to expand...

Not really.

Slippage got him pretty good on that Italian PM london session and I know he took some Huge losses trying the NFP.

Psychology got him in the end. Slippage hurt but when he started thinking he had this thing beat and played the NFP(s) with the same strategies.
 
luckyd1976 said:
SO he leveraged 400:1 and started betting big.

I MEAN BIG... Example, let's say he only wanted to lose at max -5% per pick. He'd invest 95% of account and let the -5% Margin call be his stop loss. I asked him one day about this, and he said,"A Brokers Margin Call are more Guarateed than any of my stop losses."

Now this guy was a great trader before this experiment. And he truly thought he had found the answer. +500% months were not unheard of
Click to expand...

For all you testers/tweakers... His strategy was some form of 1minute Chart, 60sma/30ema cross, only during high volume times.
 
luckyd1976 said:
Not really.

Slippage got him pretty good on that Italian PM london session and I know he took some Huge losses trying the NFP.

Psychology got him in the end. Slippage hurt but when he started thinking he had this thing beat and played the NFP(s) with the same strategies.
Click to expand...

He strikes me as a fool.
 
stevoeo said:
If this is the case shouldn't there be millionaires right now out there. I mean if a person trades like this for 12 months, he could be stinking rich!!!.

Are there any of you in this forum who are making a very very good living as independent traders in forex. Can a person sustain gains of over 100% in a month for even 6 months?!
Click to expand...

Yes it can be done and is being done on a daily basis. But you will not find them traders wasting time on here. Many of my colleagues are earning high end 5 or 6 figure sums on a weekly basis.

If you tell yourself that it cannot be done, then you have already defined your limits in the trading arena.

If others can do it, so can you. They found a way, you must find yours. But do not believe that it cannot be done.
 
Just shoot for 1% per day or better.
I think anything over 100% a year is crazy. Anything from 20-99% is awesome. Anything under 20, is decent, but average. I just would not shoot for 400%. That's BS. It's possible to do some insane stuff with futures leverage and forex levg. but you can't risk everything on every trade. Build up your fortune slowly, and don't lose a dime.

Edit: You'll need an edge that works for you. An edge allows you to seriously win. It means the game is no longer in the house's favor. And follow your system with discipline. Without any discipline, you'll losr automatically, no doubt.

The market is the ocean. We are the fish. Follow the big currents and stay out of the dark belly of the ocean. Predators lurk for an easy meal so stay in the "school of fish." And when the crowd is wrong, get out, and wait.
 
Last edited:
Mr.J-Arthur said:
Just shoot for 1% per day or better.
I think anything over 100% a year is crazy. Anything from 20-99% is awesome. Anything under 20, is decent, but average. I just would not shoot for 400%. That's BS. It's possible to do some insane stuff with futures leverage and forex levg. but you can't risk everything on every trade. Build up your fortune slowly, and don't lose a dime.

Edit: You'll need an edge that works for you. An edge allows you to seriously win. It means the game is no longer in the house's favor. And follow your system with discipline. Without any discipline, you'll losr automatically, no doubt.

The market is the ocean. We are the fish. Follow the big currents and stay out of the dark belly of the ocean. Predators lurk for an easy meal so stay in the "school of fish." And when the crowd is wrong, get out, and wait.
Click to expand...



Being new to this forum I thought this was a interesting read. Maybe it can be done, but strangely noone has ever showed proof of a mechanical system not failing in the long run. Not once, ever.. on any of the internet forums.. To my knowledge at least. So if it's to be done, it has to be more of a personality trait than anything.
 
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