Now that the final Technical trade has been stopped out for a loss, what if anything can be gleaned from the methodology employed.
ENTRY TRIGGERS.
The longest lasting technical trade, the "Turtles" type of trade, or a stock making new highs, had as it's entry, just that, it had made a new high.
The entry was on a pullback from that new high.
This particular strategy, or methodology, was stolen from a system being traded in Australia.
As such, the "Entry trigger" has been extensively "backtested" on a basket of ASX Marginable Stocks.
The "Marginable" element may have a role to play in the eventual outcome, viz. CPE may well not have met the criteria for a marginable stock. I'll have a look into this, and see what relevance that may or may not have.
Also, the ASX is currently in a Bull market.
The US, is in currently a rangebound market, and is trying to decide Bull or Bear.
My personal feeling as detailed elsewhere is Bull, hence, a Long entry into CPE.
Sector Strength.
Probably missed the boat here. Oil has had a big run up, although it may continue.
Technicals,probably not the best way to assess what is in essence a Fundamental call, but anyone who disagrees, and can demonstrate.........feel free.
EXIT CRITERIA.
Simply a stoploss 10% from Entry Price.
Again from extensive backtesting of entries and exits on ASX
Final judgement will have to be reserved and see what happens towards the next 2 quarters.
If CPE continues downward, then the Stoploss was a good call.
If, it recovers, and heads higher, then a failure.
OPPORTUNITY COST.
Well, this trade took a long time to work itself out.............and ended in a loss.
Can look at this 2 ways.............The first, is that if you are fairly new to trading, trades that take longer to play out will probably save you money, even if ultimately you lose, as you would lose anyway, but just faster, so it prevents overtrading in the early stage..................Second, if you are not new to trading, and have a pretty good strike rate, then this is money tied up for quite some time,.................Third, had this worked out, and you caught a trend, your reward would, or should have been large.
Choosing a "methodology" for your character, or personality deserves more sensible discussion than it receives.
TRADE MANAGEMENT.
Rules were followed.........therefore no problems.
POSITION SIZE.
Will vary from person to person.........
OVERALL.
Well, I am that reformed smoker.
I find Technicals to be a total waste of time, money and effort.
Of the 4 strategies employed, all lost money.
None showed, or provided any confidence that they possessed any defineable "probability" at all..................might just be my selection of technicals, but, hey, as I was only 1 of 3 that offered anything, thats what you got stuck with.
Possibly "JOULES" may wish to comment on his at the time Bearish analysis.
It utilised Elliot Wave, which I know next to nothing about.
Also, from the P&V camp, Tapeworm2, may wish to comment.
cheers d998..................and for my two fans do it real time, or **** off.
ENTRY TRIGGERS.
The longest lasting technical trade, the "Turtles" type of trade, or a stock making new highs, had as it's entry, just that, it had made a new high.
The entry was on a pullback from that new high.
This particular strategy, or methodology, was stolen from a system being traded in Australia.
As such, the "Entry trigger" has been extensively "backtested" on a basket of ASX Marginable Stocks.
The "Marginable" element may have a role to play in the eventual outcome, viz. CPE may well not have met the criteria for a marginable stock. I'll have a look into this, and see what relevance that may or may not have.
Also, the ASX is currently in a Bull market.
The US, is in currently a rangebound market, and is trying to decide Bull or Bear.
My personal feeling as detailed elsewhere is Bull, hence, a Long entry into CPE.
Sector Strength.
Probably missed the boat here. Oil has had a big run up, although it may continue.
Technicals,probably not the best way to assess what is in essence a Fundamental call, but anyone who disagrees, and can demonstrate.........feel free.
EXIT CRITERIA.
Simply a stoploss 10% from Entry Price.
Again from extensive backtesting of entries and exits on ASX
Final judgement will have to be reserved and see what happens towards the next 2 quarters.
If CPE continues downward, then the Stoploss was a good call.
If, it recovers, and heads higher, then a failure.
OPPORTUNITY COST.
Well, this trade took a long time to work itself out.............and ended in a loss.
Can look at this 2 ways.............The first, is that if you are fairly new to trading, trades that take longer to play out will probably save you money, even if ultimately you lose, as you would lose anyway, but just faster, so it prevents overtrading in the early stage..................Second, if you are not new to trading, and have a pretty good strike rate, then this is money tied up for quite some time,.................Third, had this worked out, and you caught a trend, your reward would, or should have been large.
Choosing a "methodology" for your character, or personality deserves more sensible discussion than it receives.
TRADE MANAGEMENT.
Rules were followed.........therefore no problems.
POSITION SIZE.
Will vary from person to person.........
OVERALL.
Well, I am that reformed smoker.
I find Technicals to be a total waste of time, money and effort.
Of the 4 strategies employed, all lost money.
None showed, or provided any confidence that they possessed any defineable "probability" at all..................might just be my selection of technicals, but, hey, as I was only 1 of 3 that offered anything, thats what you got stuck with.
Possibly "JOULES" may wish to comment on his at the time Bearish analysis.
It utilised Elliot Wave, which I know next to nothing about.
Also, from the P&V camp, Tapeworm2, may wish to comment.
cheers d998..................and for my two fans do it real time, or **** off.
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