Comprehensive Trading System/Methodology

Trading truisms

...Unlike dice, markets are subject not merely to risk, an arathmetic concept, but also to broader uncertainty that shadows the future generally. Unfortuntaely, uncertainty, as opposed to risk, is an indefinate condition, one that does not conform to numerical staitjackets.

...Diversification - one of the shiboleths of modern investing, but an overrated one. As Keynes noted, one bet soundly considered is preferable to many poorly understood.

The ability to measure risk, doesn't mean it can be elimintaed.

Inexperience and high leverage is a potentially explosive combination.

There is nothing like success to blind one to the possibility of failure.

Roger Lowenstein...When Genius Failed.
 
Rev Extr set-up...Hi-probability even against strong intraday uptrend

The screenshot shows the Gbpusd Rev Extr main chart set-up in 1min trigger that was supported by extreme o/b conditions on the small charts. Although the set-up has no identifiable 5min main chart supporting set-up it came at potential sbr/res of the 4600/10 offers touted by mni, with confluence of 61.8% fib of 4895-4136 swing and previous 1hr swing lo, and has seen a quick +30+ pips available at time of writing.

veojno.gif


Edit, I forgot to mention that at time of set-up price had exceeded it's 5,10,20 and 100 day average pip ranges, thus adding more potential to a reversal from the potential resistance
 
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Why trade against the trend??

We hear so much about trading from various sources, not least these type of forums. One of the recciring common themes states that you must trade with the trend. Seeking Hi-probability trading opportunities to get 'with trend' is no doubt very sensible.

This trading system/methodology identifies 4 indicator based set-ups that when developed at a potential sbr/rbs zone pre-identified on the next t/f into whose trend (+)an entry is sought, can highlight a hi-probability 'with trend' trading opportunity.

But trends do pullback/retrace such is their nature, and indeed can reverse completely if the swing point is strong enough.

Trading against the trend when one of this system/methodology's Reversal set-ups develops at pre-identified potential support/resistance confluence on the next higher t/f, can offer hi-probability trading opportunities.

The ideal situation is to trade with a broker that allows 2-way trading, ie if for example you are already long in an uptrend, it is useful to be able to short at a Reversal/pullback set-up whilst leaving the long running. If you are flat and a trend is in progress it is also a useful way to pick up some pips that you might wish to use as your stop whilst awaiting a decent Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) opportunity.

The example below shows a Reversal Aii set-up and you will see from the resultant price action that price sold past the last HL @ point a (a Re-entry set-up) indicating at least a deeper pullback.

Contra-trend trading can be just as hi in probability as with trend trading, within the guidelines discussed in this thread.

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2 x Hi-probability set-ups - One with trend, one contra-trend

Early action in Gbpusd pairing this Monday (U.s President's Day Bank Hol) sees a gap down at open with a 1min Re-entry type 2 set-up (into 5min downtrend after a pullback)shown in screesnhot below @ the potential sbr zone. The set-up saw +30+ pip gain available.

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A new LL off that Re-entry set-up described above finds Support in the 1hr potential support zone shown below

sxgc9t.gif


..at which a 1min Reversal Aii was supported by a Reversal set-ups extending to 30min t/f (5min Reversal Extreme ii set-up,15min Reversal Aii seq and 30min Reversal type C,) as well as small chart supporting conditions to the 5min t/f.

By way of example the 5min and 15min Reversal set-ups are shown below;

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21lvh4y.gif



Supporting repeating reversal set-ups extending 3 t/f's above the1min trigger with small chart supporting o/s conditions to the 5min t/f @ a pre-identified potential 1hr support zone= hi probability trading opportunity.

The set-up has seen +70+ pip gain available at time of writing.
 
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Confluence - the most powerful phenomenon in technical analysis !?

The confluence (coming together of factors) that underpins this trading system/methodology is derived from the following factors;

a. Pre-identified Potential Supp/Res/SBR/RBS factors essentially centering around previous price swing hi/lo's (price pivots) with the further confluence of other main factors such as fibs and trend lines and indeed minor factors such as mathematically calculated pivots such as S1, R1 etc.

b. Individual price action trigger...ie a known repeating reversal candle within one of the indicator based repeating patterns

c. Band deviation...Bollinger band deviation patterns being one half of the repeating indicator based patterns.

d. Oscillator divergence/extremes...certain repeating patterns of oscillator divergence (both regular and hidden) and extreme readings, being the second half of the repeating idicator based patterns.

-----------------------------------------------

e. The context in which the trading edge is employed is provided by the Overall price action-classic peak/valley analysis utilised by this trading system/methodology. It is this context and analysis across both the intermediate and trend t/f's that ensures that the set-ups are acted upon only in the highest probability overall price action circumstances.

The confluence of the factors a-d above provide the trading set-ups outlined per this trading system/methodology and make up the 'trading edge.' a and e are the essence of the trading edge whilst the combination of c and d provide the most likely optimum area at which to consider entering a trading opportunity, b providing the actual trigger.

Further confluence is derived by the combination of set-ups that may occur above the trigger t/f set-up per the triple time frame analysis central to this trading system/methodology. For example a trigger t/f Reversal set-up may have supporting set-ups on the intermediate t/f and higher.


Be under no doubt - the confluence of widely used technical factors is where the highest probability trading opportunities lie.
G/L
 
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Bbmac: thanks for your answer about the exits. I will turn about that later.
Now I am trying to understand the charts you explain in this thread, because they are different to the templates I downloaded.
My main problem is the understanding of verify supports and resistances or sbr/rbs.
For instance, in the post 524: How do you see the “potencial sbr” you mention in the first paragraph?
Apparently, you use silverchannels for that. But I dont understand how the
channels works, because most of the info is in russian.
montrove
 
Bbmac: thanks for your answer about the exits. I will turn about that later.
Now I am trying to understand the charts you explain in this thread, because they are different to the templates I downloaded.
My main problem is the understanding of verify supports and resistances or sbr/rbs.
For instance, in the post 524: How do you see the “potencial sbr” you mention in the first paragraph?
Apparently, you use silverchannels for that. But I dont understand how the
channels works, because most of the info is in russian.
montrove

Answers to questions posed;

1. All chart templates should look the same as mine. I am not aware of anything in russian, lol.

2. The FutCh lines of the Silver Channels indicator are the Support/Resistance Channels used in the main price chart window on all main chart templates...this is well discussed and detailed in the thread. ie black out lines 0-5 and just use lines 6 and 7, as shown in various posts in the thread.)

3. Potential supp/res/sbr/rbs is derived from the confluence of the main potential supp/res factors of previous swing hi/lo's, fibs and 1hr+ t/lines and generally centre around the previous swing hi/lo's [price pivots] on the intermediate and trend t/f's. no tech indicator is used in determining potential supp/res/sbr/rbs.
 
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Answers to questions posed;

1. All chart tempaltes should look the same as mine. I am not aware of anything in russian, lol.

2. The FutCh lines of the Silver Channels indicator are the Support/Resistance Channels used in the main price chart window on all main chart templates...this is well discussed and detailed in the thread. ie black out lines 0-5 and just use lines 6 and 7, as shown in various posts in the thread.)

3. Potential supp/res/sbr/rbs is derived from the confluence of the main potential supp/res factors of previous swing hi/lo's, fibs and 1hr+ t/lines and generally centre around the previous swing hi/lo's [price pivots] on the intermediate and trend t/f's. no tech indicator is used in determining potential supp/res/sbr/rbs.

See these 2 links to posts:
Post 351:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...prehensive-trading-system-methodology-44.html

Post 478:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...prehensive-trading-system-methodology-60.html
 
Apparently, you use silverchannels for that. But I dont understand how the channels work

The Supp/Res Channels (FutCh lines [6&7] of the Silver Channels indicator) are simply to show potentially overbought/oversold conditions , ie the deeper into the channels price goes the more o/b / o/s price becomes. The channels are used in the Reversal Extreme set-up where at least the 61.8 (green dotted) must be breeched as part of the characteristics of the set-up
 
Answers to questions posed; I am not aware of anything in russian, lol. viac.ru web of Alexsilver, author of silverchannels

Yeh, I understand that the code may be in russian but the properties are all written in english and it is only the colours and inputs tabs of the indicator properties you need concern yourself with if the templates haven't already loaded with the correct settings.
 
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Confluence of set-ups across the t/f's etc...

The 0825am gmt 1min trigger Rev Extr ii supported by the 5min Rev Extr and 15min Rev Aii seq and 30min Rev C set-ups developed at the 1hr potential support zone shown below (area circled in white)

2qio0lk.jpg



....the 5min small chart had optimum supporting conditions, breech of lower donchian channel (pink) and 2nd extreme (of 3) fib tunnel (red wide dotted) with fib channels ascending into price (yellow/aqua) shown below;

20peq9s.gif
 
The Most Profitable Traders

Replicated from this link: The Most Profitable Traders


'....I thought I would post this here due to the value behind it, as I believe there are a lot of traders out there that could benefit from basic info such as this. I've posted it elsewhere in ForexFactory as well.

The below list comprises a number of different observations of myself and others through experience working with traders of all shapes and sizes, and is equally relevant to all. Some of the information is rehashed and/or might sound cliche, but here it is:

They are experienced – Probably the most horrifying and worst myth shot out to anyone considering trading for a living is that you will compound millions in an extremely short amount of time. The only true way to make every day profitable comes through experience, and countless hours learning is crucial to longevity of success.

They know the damage they are capable of
– Notice I didn’t say potential or profits here. The best traders I know of understand their limits, and seem to focus more on what can go wrong than what can go right. They are not easily convinced of lucrative outcomes, and have a very high sense of self-awareness.

They trade to make money, not to be right – They understand the strengths and possible pitfalls of what it is they do for a living, and use that knowledge to curb their emotional output.

They have an edge and know how to use it – They understand that without it they wouldn’t last long

They have a gameplan, and follow it explicitly – Each trade is planned and opportunities are scouted for before any trading takes place. They steer away from the killer of all killers: overtrading.

They manage risk – Regardless of how much conviction they have on a trade, they will still do what they can to avoid the potential of any losses and understand rule #1 about trading: anything can happen.

They work obsessively – They follow each turn, each piece of info that comes out in regards to their trade, and follow any underlying information relevant to failure or success.

They only access the best information
– Information rules in trading, and having some of the best translates to money. Using the wrong information leads to failure.

They think about the trade, not the money behind it - Focusing on money can destroy your means to objectively assess the trade itself.

They are constantly learning - Just when you think you know it all about trading, a new curveball gets thrown your way, not to mention there are continued means and methods to be learned about making money. Even the most highly successful trader I ever knew, a multi-billion dollar portfolio manager, has a team of fundamentalists and technicians come in to train and retrain himself and his traders.

They are active – Activity sparks creativity, a very crucial part of trading.

They have patience – They understand that the money will come, but everything needs to be in place, first.'



He's got it!
 
Potential Support/Resistance/SBR/RBS

In looking to identify previous swing hi/lo zones (price pivots) as the basis for potential Support/Resistance/Resistance becomes Support (RBS)/Support becomes Resistance (SBR,) the following general observations are important;

a. The most recent/immediate obvious previous swing hi/lo's to current price action tend to have the most influence on price action insofar as their potential for supp/res/rbs/sbr is concerned..

lest,

i. Another obvious previous recent swing hi/lo produced a big swing.

and/or

ii. Another obvious previous recent swing hi/lo has had multiple tests on it as res/supp respectively.

b. Price tends to test deep into the potential supp/res/sbr/rbs zone ..ie toward the close of the candle that makes up the deepest extreme of the potential zone unless there is a more obvious area in the zone where the confluence of other potential supp/res factors exists.

c. A confluence of potential supp/res factors around a previous swing hi/lo is always preferable.

Should this not exist a previous near term swing hi/lo zone that has had multiple tests and/or resulted in a strong swing can also act as potential supp/res/sbr/rbs, as can a confluence of other potenntial supp/res factors that do not involve a previous swing hi/lo.

NB: Per this Trading System/Methodology - Main Potential Supp/Res factors are Previous price swing hi/Lo's (Price pivots,) Fibs and 1hr+ trend Lines. Minor potential Supp/Res factors are mathematically calculated pivots.
 
Potential supp/res factors confluence...example

The screenshot below shows the 30min gbpusd in an uptrend...Look at where the previous swing hi zones=previous resistance=potential rbs acted as support in the uptrend. These areas coincided with other potential supp/res factors as follows;

208xjeu.gif


b = 61.8% fib of then up swing a - e.
c = 50% fib of then up swing b - f and ascendinf support t/line joining lows at a and b, 1st test.
d = 23.6% fib of then upswing b - g and 38.2% of then upswing c-g.

This chart illustrates perfectly the technical phenomena of sbr/rbs (support becomes resistance/resistance becomes support) and the power of the confluence of other potential supp/res factors.

The Confluence of potential supp/res factors can be high probability areas at which to consider a trading opportunity.
 
Hi there

I've been trying out your method/strategy for a good few weeks now and so far its going well
thank you for all your help bbmac

Just have some additional questions some of you guys might help me out with.

In using the system, I sometimes notice that at SBR RBS levels on higher time frames, reversal set ups are not always perfect as per your examples. For instance entering a trade following the extreme reversal setups, oscillator extremes might have already taken place and some retracement may already be in evidence before the appropriate reversal candle triggers entry.
I was just wandering whether you cut corners on some of your rules. I find that many profitable trades would be missed if setups are followed over-religiously.
I also use price action to identify useful entry points and find that combining this with your methodology produces usful outcomes.

Do you find that some reversal setups occur more often than others?

Whereas perfect reversal set ups are not so common, I find that with trend set-ups are too common.
Often finding suitable RBS or SBR can prove very difficult indeed, and entries often result in losing trades. Have you got any tips and advice regarding the use of these?

Similarly, how long do you stay in your trades. I usually keep trades on longer where major SBR RBS levels are confirmed on longer time frame periods. Often there is a quick tick gain followed by retrace (some loss as price over-reaches) before a more substansive move and larger end profit gain.
Trouble is, in the meantime, original setups which triggered the initial entry are no longer in place.
What setup changes do you look for to decide that the original trade is no longer attractive and you wish to exit your trade?

I'm using Alpari demo account at the moment. Since the commission is in the spread it is sometimes difficlut to keep stops tight. What stop loss rules do you use?


Thanks again for all your help,




Stefan
 
Hi there

I've been trying out your method/strategy for a good few weeks now and so far its going well
thank you for all your help bbmac

Just have some additional questions some of you guys might help me out with.

In using the system, I sometimes notice that at SBR RBS levels on higher time frames, reversal set ups are not always perfect as per your examples. For instance entering a trade following the extreme reversal setups, oscillator extremes might have already taken place and some retracement may already be in evidence before the appropriate reversal candle triggers entry.
I was just wandering whether you cut corners on some of your rules. I find that many profitable trades would be missed if setups are followed over-religiously.
I also use price action to identify useful entry points and find that combining this with your methodology produces usful outcomes.

Do you find that some reversal setups occur more often than others?

Whereas perfect reversal set ups are not so common, I find that with trend set-ups are too common.
Often finding suitable RBS or SBR can prove very difficult indeed, and entries often result in losing trades. Have you got any tips and advice regarding the use of these?

Similarly, how long do you stay in your trades. I usually keep trades on longer where major SBR RBS levels are confirmed on longer time frame periods. Often there is a quick tick gain followed by retrace (some loss as price over-reaches) before a more substansive move and larger end profit gain.
Trouble is, in the meantime, original setups which triggered the initial entry are no longer in place.
What setup changes do you look for to decide that the original trade is no longer attractive and you wish to exit your trade?

I'm using Alpari demo account at the moment. Since the commission is in the spread it is sometimes difficlut to keep stops tight. What stop loss rules do you use?

Hi, Thanks for the comments, glad to hear you are making progress. Worth remembering that perfecting any trading edge, or the use of any trading edge takes secreen time, discipline and patience,...keeping a log is a good way of measuring your tangible progress.

Dealing further with points you raise (highlighted in bold italic)

In using the system, I sometimes notice that at SBR RBS levels on higher time frames, reversal set ups are not always perfect as per your examples. Trading a Reversal set-up at a pre-identified potential sbr/rbs zone should only be done if there is a supporting re-entry set-up on the t/f above which would mean that the potential sbr/rbs exists on the t/f about that Re-entry set-up, as indeed a trend must exist on at least that t/f.

For instance entering a trade following the extreme reversal setups, oscillator extremes might have already taken place and some retracement may already be in evidence before the appropriate reversal candle triggers entry. The most essential ingdeient in the Reversal extreme set-up is the CCi hook back from an extreme at open of first reversal candle (or exceptions given in the manual,) at this point the osma may have come off it's own extreme.

I was just wandering whether you cut corners on some of your rules. I find that many profitable trades would be missed if setups are followed over-religiously.

Trade only the best most prefectly formed set-ups @ pre-identified potential supp/res/sbr/rbs is my general advice, but yes there may be occassions where a set-up or a supporting next higher t/f set-up isn't perfectly formed but the potential supp/res/sbr/rbs you ahve pre-identified has a strong confluence and you get a convincing reversal candle trigger...this makes for a compelling case for entry and in these circumstances where something isn't quite prefect you may want to consider using less risk. Also you can use the further confluence of the small charts. I hesistate to recommend that anyone new to this trading edge cut corners as it may lead to overtrading and mistakes but the circumstances you detail do exist and a more experienced user of this trading edge has the benefit of instinct borne out of experience that may cause them to make an informed decision about entry or not in those circumstances. be careful though, don't veer too far away from the set-ups....I reject many that are imperfectly formed as there are always plenty that are.

I also use price action to identify useful entry points and find that combining this with your methodology produces usful outcomes. Yes individual price action as the trigger in the set-ups is an essential part of the system/methodology.

Do you find that some reversal setups occur more often than others? Not really a Reversal A is the least common.

I find that with trend set-ups are too common. Often finding suitable RBS or SBR can prove very difficult indeed, and entries often result in losing trades. Have you got any tips and advice regarding the use of these? Pre-identified potential sbr/rbs in the form of previous price swing hi/lo's and where possible the confluence of fib and/or t/lines is the key to a Re-entry to next t/f trend after a pullback set-up. I simply ignore the Re-entry set-ups that develop at areas I have not identified as potential sbr/rbs, -they are generally false positives. Remember it is the confluence of the indicator based set-up with protential sbr/rbs and price action trigger all together. I don't agree that potential sbr/rbs is hard to find, even on one pairing (gbpusd) I find plenty of set-ups ' potential sbr/rbs that offer the highest probability trading opportunities.

Similarly, how long do you stay in your trades. I usually keep trades on longer where major SBR RBS levels are confirmed on longer time frame periods. Often there is a quick tick gain followed by retrace (some loss as price over-reaches) before a more substansive move and larger end profit gain. Trouble is, in the meantime, original setups which triggered the initial entry are no longer in place. I have written about this in a post on this thread to a similar question, I refer you to that. I find that when a trigger set-up is supported by a perfectly formed intermediate t/f set-up at a trend t/f potential supp/res/sbr/rbs zone , that tends to the be the absolute top or bottom of the move....but if you act at a trigger t/f set-up alone at that trend t/f potential supp/res/sbr/rbs then price can retrace and 'over-reach' to find the 'real' top or bottom of the resulant move deeper in the pot supp/res/sbr/rbs zone (price tends deep in the zone lest theer be any other confluence of potential supp/res factors elsewhere in the zone.) If you believe in a potential supp/res/sbr/rbs zone and in the case of a trend t/f pot supp/res/sbr/rbs zone you should ensure stop is outside of it and await the intermdiate t/f supporting set-up.

What setup changes do you look for to decide that the original trade is no longer attractive and you wish to exit your trade? See above answer....also if the price does not go quickly/easily in my favour then theat potential supp/res/sbr/rbs or indeed that part of it may not be where the supply/demand is.

I'm using Alpari demo account at the moment. Since the commission is in the spread it is sometimes difficlut to keep stops tight. What stop loss rules do you use? I refer you to the posts (s) in this thread that covers the subject. More generally, because price tends to test deep in a potential supp/res/sbr/rbs zone or at the most obvious point of confluence with any other pot supp/res factors that lie within it, then stop should be placed outside of that...in this instance keeping a relatively tight stop should not be too much of an issue.

Please feel free to come back if you require any further explanation/clarification,...happy to help if I can.
 
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Hi,

Thanks for the clarifications. This morning I have been looking at Cable and noticed an extreme reversal set-up in the M1 timeframe as price broke the previous support in M30.
Naturally, I didn't do anything in anticipation of a further shank.

I then noticed an extreme reversal set-up in M5 as the 10bol moved up inside the 20,40 and 60bol in the trigger timeframe and OSMA moved above the axis, MACD same peak retrace. The way I understand this is that the trigger time frame was now displaying a type B reversal supported by an extreme set up in the M5. Price broke above the previous M30 support. Consequently I moved in and traded for a quick 20pip profit.

I hope that I'm trading your system correctly. Do you ever trade where there is only a setup in one timeframe? I find that there is often a set-up in the trigger M1 timeframe at M30 SBR RBS levels, without there being one in the intervening M5 timeframe.

Many thanks,



Stefam
 
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