Could Deutsche Bank Fail?

[timsk]

What's the bad news that's so bad?

lol Atilla! Tongue in cheek comment I assume but, just in case . . .

1. Price has waterfalled to an historic low.
2. It's got fines it can't afford to pay.
3. The IMF have identified it as the single biggest risk to the financial system.
4. As mentioned in my post above, the CEO has put fuel on the fire by saying all is fine (when it clearly isn't).
5. Major commentators are saying it's in a quagmire of poo; some even say it can't survive without support from the ECB and/or the German Chancellor.
6. On that note, Angela Merkel says she won't bail them out.
7. As a consequence, 10 hedge funds have pulled out. Is this just the start of a run on the bank?

The list goes on . . .
Tim.

 

[Splitlink]

I did say that Merkel would be making a serious mistake if she did not save that bank. I, still think so, but Germany has a problem, there. $14 billion will go through the bank, like a dose of salts, straight over to the US treasury, to pay that fine.That needs thinking about very carefully.

Maybe, they need to look at Commerzbank and make sure that that is all right and prop that one up, if necessary.

 

[Hoggums]

Spot on Spit, who's going to want to invest in Deutsche now? They might as well give their money straight to the US treasury cutting out the middleman.

BUT - and this is a big but - Germany cannot let this one go down - it's far too big. Going bust will make Lehman Bros look like a small appetiser and send the markets into freefall as the rest of the world will have to unwind their $40trillion of derivatives positions with DB for starters.

I don't know what Merkel will do, she doesn't want to bail it out as she's spent the last 8 years telling Italy and Greece they can't have bailouts, it'll just make her look like a hypocrite plus the German public won't be happy with billions of their tax Euros going straight to America's coffers. That will surely lose her the elections next year. But if she let's it go bust then we're talking armageddon for the eurozone..

 

[forker]

You have to wonder if they will be bailed out

 

[Atilla]

lol Atilla! Tongue in cheek comment I assume but, just in case . . .

1. Price has waterfalled to an historic low.
2. It's got fines it can't afford to pay.
3. The IMF have identified it as the single biggest risk to the financial system.
4. As mentioned in my post above, the CEO has put fuel on the fire by saying all is fine (when it clearly isn't).
5. Major commentators are saying it's in a quagmire of poo; some even say it can't survive without support from the ECB and/or the German Chancellor.
6. On that note, Angela Merkel says she won't bail them out.
7. As a consequence, 10 hedge funds have pulled out. Is this just the start of a run on the bank?

The list goes on . . .
Tim.

Is that it!

You haven't forgotten or left anything out have you? :whistling

 

[Atilla]

DB will definitely be bailed out if required but is that a necessary just to pay a ridiculous fine to the yanks?

Who says PIGS banks weren't bailed out? Of course they all were.

Mario has already said countless times the ECB will do what ever it takes.


Indices rising still. What on earth for? Oh... DOJ dropped charge to less than half. Markets now have reason to make new highs after settlement.

 

[forker]

The thing is, if they are bailed out it will feed more anger at the European establishment.

 

[Splitlink]

Spot on Spit, who's going to want to invest in Deutsche now? They might as well give their money straight to the US treasury cutting out the middleman.

BUT - and this is a big but - Germany cannot let this one go down - it's far too big. Going bust will make Lehman Bros look like a small appetiser and send the markets into freefall as the rest of the world will have to unwind their $40trillion of derivatives positions with DB for starters.

I don't know what Merkel will do, she doesn't want to bail it out as she's spent the last 8 years telling Italy and Greece they can't have bailouts, it'll just make her look like a hypocrite plus the German public won't be happy with billions of their tax Euros going straight to America's coffers. That will surely lose her the elections next year. But if she let's it go bust then we're talking armageddon for the eurozone..

I think that she will lose the elections, anyway, She's had a good run and the electorate want a change. She could go directly to the US, pay the fine and make it clear to them that Germany is not to blame but the bank has to stay afloat,

The Yanks will want something in return. You scratch my back and I'll scratch yours!

All very messy---glad I'm not in politics!

 

[counter_violent]

Is that it!

You haven't forgotten or left anything out have you? :whistling

He did say there was more.

CoCo Bonds.

You can google it....btw, they are also dropping like a brick

You Remainians really make me laugh. EU is a great project, so great that we must be insane for leaving.

We shall see who's insane.

 

[wintergasp]

Deutsche Bank will not go bankrupt more likely it will be rescued by the German governement.

The hedge fund I work for has pulled out all of its money from Deutsche, to ensure our liquidity and most hedge funds friends I have did the same.

 

[Pat494]

Deutsche Bank will not go bankrupt more likely it will be rescued by the German governement.

The hedge fund I work for has pulled out all of its money from Deutsche, to ensure our liquidity and most hedge funds friends I have did the same.

Yep, you don't want to go down with the sinking ship.

 

[counter_violent]

Deutsche Bank will not go bankrupt more likely it will be rescued by the German government.

The hedge fund I work for has pulled out all of its money from Deutsche, to ensure our liquidity and most hedge funds friends I have did the same.

So you and your hedge fund buddies are forcing the issue, speeding up the decision making process. It all rather smells like another financial / banking crisis.

 

[aex]

So you and your hedge fund buddies are forcing the issue, speeding up the decision making process. It all rather smells like another financial / banking crisis.

I was thinking about the same thing but I wouldn't be sure on estimating what are the odds for that to happen in the next 3 years.

 

[tar]

I don't understand how brexit is related to the DB failure discussion , many UK banks have failed during the 2008 crisis , and many will fail in the future .

 

[aex]

I don't understand how brexit is related to the DB failure discussion , many UK banks have failed during the 2008 crisis , and many will fail in the future .

maybe this?

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-may-leave-britain-in-event-of-brexit-reports

 

[tar]

maybe this?

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-may-leave-britain-in-event-of-brexit-reports

Not just DB even UK banks may leave Britain in event of Brexit

 

[wintergasp]

So you and your hedge fund buddies are forcing the issue, speeding up the decision making process. It all rather smells like another financial / banking crisis.

Not really our fault, the prime brokerage business where a hedge fund has its money is not supposed to make money because of deposit - so Deutsche wouldn't make less money if we take our deposit out. They make money on exotic product matching and derivatives.

 

[wintergasp]

maybe this?

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-may-leave-britain-in-event-of-brexit-reports

No DB's potential failure is not connected to Brexit. This is just media noise.

 

[timsk]

So, is everything rosy at Deutsche now - normal service resumed - panic over?

Deutsche Bank Swings to Profit

Have all the shorts covered and are all those that never doubted the banking giant's ability to weather the storm now long? Is it a full recovery; time to close the thread? Or could this just be a little respite, a remission to fuel a dead cat bounce - before going the same way as Northern Rock or RBS?
Tim.

 

[timsk]

Time to reprise this thread and ask: Could Deutsche Bank Fail?

If it were to fail, the ramifications for Germany are obvious. The ramifications for the EU would be equally dire as, needless to say, Germany is the financial lynch pin that holds the EU together. The contagion from the collapse of Deutche would be unstoppable and the global financial crises that would likely follow would, IMO, eclipse that of the 2008 crisis. Just my £0.02p worth, but I'll be keeping a close eye on this chart in the coming days and crossing my fingers that it doesn't get any uglier.