Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

[NVP]

Liam Halligan on currency wars in to-day's Tellybubbygraph:

"For now, “currency wars” are a relatively arcane debate limited to foreign exchange specialists and diplomats. But this issue has already adversely affected hundreds of millions of people who consider themselves largely immune to the vicissitudes of international markets, not least in the UK."

and,

"To understand what’s really going on here, headline nominal exchange rates should be ignored in favour of real effective exchange rates – which give a weighted measure of each country’s currency against their actual trading partners."

"actual trading partners" derives into "currencies."

He must be a disciple of NVP and the FXCorrelator as well!

Save me from terminal depression by reading the rest of the article:

Falling yen set to spark renewed currency wars - Telegraph

At this rate, "Civil" unrest will become the euphemism of the decade.

Trade what you see... and trade canny.

Hamish.

hmmmm...yes indeed H

Currency wars have been going on forever and since mankind stopped swapping just shiny stones and animal furs .....

Just the flavour of the month at the moment for our enlightened financial journalists.......

trade what you see on the FXcorrelator and you are ALWAYS going with the correct moneyflow

N

 

[NVP]

Mornin all.......

aah the joys and distractions of life.........

At the weekend my elderly mother in law was finally persuaded by her family to look at Retirement home living and someone would help her manage the Tax/Legal and financial issues (including buying it for her in advance of selling her own small house)

welcome to NVP retirement services .....(yes you guessed the idiot everyone looked at)

Bad start ......she wont even agree to relocate to Gibraltar to open up a Trading company for me there !

N

 

[NVP]

Ok heres the morning action....

left chart is a 20/3 setting on the 4hr....thats for watching / trading the higher TF signals and also supports any 15m/1hr TF signals re bias / direction

Dow has been above the 20 sma now for a long extended period.....until we see any corrections the money flow generally will be away from Yen, USD and (in the olden days) the Swissie ....flowing into the rest of the G8....while the euro is pumping the Swissie has been let off the leash a little so watch that space...

the reason USD is not as weak as we hoped is the paradox of the Greenback .......people love it and hate it at the same time .......it should be weaker but it is the global anchor Currency and will always attract fans no matter what is done to it......personally I see the Greenback flatlining this year staying on the fence.......not strongest but not weakest

from above we move to the overnights (right chart)......dead as a dodo......mondays can be boring and I prefer to see a full cycle of Timezone trading before the weeks battles commence ....

I've put support / Resistance lines on the Dow there to indicate where things will get more interesting so watch this space

Remember if you were following the higher TF bias you would only wait/chase the rising Dow signals selling usd and Yen en route .......

OR....if you are like me you ignore everything on this fairly creditable thread and make it up as you go along......(sigh) :whistling

Ok back to my blossoming Retirement Services business :smart:
NVP

 

[NVP]

I also see the GBP suffering on the left chart above ..........a lot of bad Economic Vibe and poor performance is driving the pound south.......but all is not lost.....the Eurozone is walking on eggshells .......on egg shells dudes

although making some money back on the E/G pair doesnt guarantee the GBP will rise back above the famous Zero line does it ?......remember the FXcorrelator is a game of 8 currencies.....you have to get above the AVERAGE weighted values of all G8 to make it north .......

N

 

[NVP]

as promised ....boredom reigns

a few games chasing run ups and also bounces on the Dow S/R levels already discussed...but peanuts ...and USD YEN are not correlating either....

N

 

[NVP]

Equity release schmes .....what G*t invented them ?

have you seen the unfair contracts our poor pensioners have to sign ?....damn i'm in the wrong line of business.......rolling sleeves up as we speak ....i love a good battle !

N

 

[NVP]

hey all

ive been chasing some Euro sells off the Dows fall.......Euro was a sick puppy before dow went south......a few pips so far but nothing to brag about

As I've told you all before...Yen and Euro do not share the same bed for long and Yen went North as Dow fell.....leaving Euro on its sell path

WARNING - at the moment I do have to take pragmatic views on that flaky USD-YEN correlation......sometimes I have to ignore it

later
N

 

[NVP]

beware the bounce threat on that 1hr chart below......

you have been forewarned ....

N

 

[NVP]

well here we are .........a few pips selling the Euro today so far

if you believed my alter-ego spouting about never trading against the higher trend we would be sitting on our hands waiting for more Euro buys....right ?

make your own decisions and trading plans dudes..nobody else can ...nobody

later
N

 

[NVP]

hey all

i'm a big fan of Captain currency's 3 ducks ....

heres his highest TF (4hr) on the 60ma setting.....he will only trade hsi lower timeframe signals based on the pairs relative relationship on this chart (so he would only look to buy Yen Euro at the moment as the Euro is above the Yen)........its solid and sensible and works

but today he would not have sold the Euro into the Yen .......no issues with that but as I continue to explain you will live and die by the rules you set ......so be happy with them and of course consistent

Respect to Andy as always
N

 

[NVP]

mornin all.......

more joy on that extended Euro sell........Dow fought back through the night though......but euro keep on fallin......

I really would like to see that Dow falter a little this morning.....it would make me more comfortable continuing the trades from yesterday and overnight......and help keep yen and USD north

ive added new S/R lines as well as interest points

N

 

[NVP]

I dont talk much here about standard pairchart patterns or methodologies .....but it doesnt mean I havnt studied them over the years ......you have to in the journey to finding what works for you.......(and a little hint ........isolate an individual currency and yes all price action strategies can work on them alone as well..... )

heres standard E/J and E/U paircharts with a 20 sma in tow.....so wheres the big stop loss points ?

hit that - and we really could get some action today as Euro continues to falter

mind you .the big money is always on the Daily's so look at that as well....?

N:smart:

 

[NVP]

bounce play ............jees that was fast....!!

N

 

[NVP]

if the Dow bounces South now i am watching the already weak GBP as the Sell

 

[NVP]

wow this morning is rocking !!

 

[NVP]

if the Dow bounces South now i am watching the already weak GBP as the Sell

but it hasnt ..yet .......usd and Yen are still sells ..and the GBP joined the Euro by shooting north ......

nice volatilty this morning ...............this is the best volatilty on the G8 15m TF since 2pm/NFP's last friday....

N

 

[NVP]

better and better on those 15m TF trades .......

now the main question is when will they retrace / consolidate ?

heres the 4hr 20/3 as well below ......the Euro is actually still BELOW the Zero and the Yen is only just starting another cycle south ........so tecnically we have plenty in the Pipeline.........but remember we will need the Dow to start climbing to new highs for that ..as theres only 40-50 points left before that particular 14,000+ point is hit again

enjoy it while it lasts........

hmmmmm :smart:
N

 

[NVP]

not convinced about this pattern......

a bullish Yen and USD but the Dow chasing north again as well.....and GBP and Euro plunging south ......

let it settle gang....something needs to give ......me thinks that USD Yen pattern north will extend

N

 

[NVP]

hmmm....

Dow won and kept going ..........YEN and USD submitted to that pressure and fell ......Euro stepped in for more pips .....interesting !

Can you all see how this way of looking at the markets is more satisfying than shouting at a pairchart ?

N

 

[Itshamish]

One could almost make a "What if..." or "Consequences" chart for ready reference!
And if one was trading a 14-pair Basket in conjunction ... the mind boggles.
Well, mine does.
Trade canny,
Hamish.