If you have read this thread so far you will know that IG quote commodity options , but don't list them online - you have to phone through for the spreads - contract and bet details are in the dealing guide (download from site)
there are 2 factors that jolt this market in the short-term, IMO
1) Aug 12th monthly Supply/Demand report - first indication of crop size and yield potential. Anything less that 10.8 Bn bushels for corn could be construed as bullish, as the market has been pricing in 11 bn + crop size.
2) There is a persistant cool airstream setting up across the US Corn Belt. Crops lack heat units (disappointing yield?) and could be susceptible to frost scares/actual damage in a few weeks time. There are already fears for the Canola crop up north in Canada.
Don't regard this crop as 'made and in the bin' just yet....
I got a bit concerned that we couldn't close above the 1.61 Fib level and then we fell quite quickly. As the first 3 days of these falls seem to be quite rapid (see wheat, cotton, etc.. on their falls, retrace and further falls) followed by a period of indecision I'll be very interested to see what happens today. I was a bit unimpressed by the retrace in corn yesterday especially as wheat and oats managed to hold more of their decline......
Like I said, todays first couple of hours should be interesting....
Here is an interesting article on CORN (and Soybean) Fundamentals.
It includes a study on the potential effect on the market of an early frost, (in terms of how much production could be lost,etc.) and gives some price projections.
The key thing to remember, fundamentally, (frost or no frost) is that even with a record crop this year, projected world and domestic usage leaves the Supply/Demand Balance Sheet still relatively tight.
Interesting article. How does the high exports affect wheat prices? Less domestic supply ==> higher prices? Or, producers keen to sell as they expect lower prices in (near) future?
I would agree all of the above that corn is near a major low but still expect another low below the recent double bottom. My preferred wave count is still more or less as in attached chart (eg prices are in wave 4 correction). Using an alternative count I can see wave going as high as 275, while there is of course also the bullish scenario (in a wave 3) also taking prices initially to 265-75.
However, seasonally Corn has been weak in next 4 weeks 14 of past 15 years. Yesterdays' harami / inside day may be a forewarning and IMHO doesn't strenghten the bull case.
If I were long, I would start taking profits.
As I am flat, i think a setup for short is developing:
Short entry 239, target sub 225, stop 246'ish.