CBOT Wheat - The next Big Bull?

[DaveT]

While fundamentals do not appear too friendly at the present time, I believe this market could be the next oustanding bull market within the next 12 months (2005-2006)

1) Monthly Chart shows basing action , following the 5-year base trendline.

2) Long-term COT charts ALSO show COMMERCIALS RECORD LONG, and Funds RECORD SHORT. This situation has historically led to major bull runs.

3) Daily chart currently shows a downtrend, but signs of a bottom formation recently.


If you look at the OTHER US Wheat charts (Kansas Hard-red Winter Wheat, Minneapolis Wheat), you will see a strong rally over the last two weeks. This has not yet been reflected in Chicago Wheat (Soft-red Winter Wheat), as the downtrend in Corn/Soy has been holding it back, IMO. Once harvest draws to a close, CBOT Wheat could be ready to take off.


For the short-medium term, a break of the daily downtrend channel would project a move UP to around 350.

Comments or opinions welcome.

 

[NLT]

hi, looks nice the chart. Any idea where I can trade the cbot wheat futures? I got interactivebrokers but don't think it's possible there.

 

[DaveT]

Hi NLT.

I trade via a spread-bet company (IG Index among others)

IG quote CBOT grains (wheat, corn, Soy complex,oats ,rice).

Their spread is OK at 2 points for CBOT WHEAT.(3.5 points for contolled risk)

 

[Nikk]

If you look at the OTHER US Wheat charts (Kansas Hard-red Winter Wheat, Minneapolis Wheat), you will see a strong rally over the last two weeks. This has not yet been reflected in Chicago Wheat (Soft-red Winter Wheat), as the downtrend in Corn/Soy has been holding it back, IMO. Once harvest draws to a close, CBOT Wheat could be ready to take off.

Which harvest? Hard red spring?

And what about soft red planting? Where is the risk premium in the mkt right now?

NiK

 

[TWI]

I do agree that the grains are a good place to start scaling into longs right now apart from the fact that the contango is a little steep so you may well suffer rollover pain. As a result I favour Bean Oil over the others in the complex.

 

[gene]

For your perusal:

 

[TWI]

I think the Wheat/Corn spread is rather interesting.

 

[DaveT]

350 Target achieved.

 

[cs00nnb]

Wheat

350 Target achieved.

Hello,

I have had a look at the Wheat chart and still looks to be getting battered. Seems to be quite a bit of blood, but I like blood.

Correct me if you think Im wrong, but Wheat looks like it will make a profitable upward move (in the short term).
Im waiting for a trend change (CLose above 20 - 27 moving average).
Commercials are aggressive buyers too!

WHats your view?

Regards
Nav

 

[TWI]

The Wheat fundamentals are more supportive than for the other grains at present. The Kansas/CBOT spread has continued to widen too. Would not rule out a retest of 290's but a break up would IMO be worth buying.

 

[Mr Spud]

is anyone else following this ?..has to be said DaveT is a legend ...did take 3 years though !

 

[trader_dante]

Is this the start of a new up trend?