CBOT Grains

[TBS]

CBOT Grains

December Wheat

Tremendous rally from the lows, breaking out of a 2 month congestion zone,, a brief pause at the trendline c315, then off to the races. Current support is c340, but some form of retracement must be due as speculators move in to take some profits after such a charge to the upside. The main move is 310 – 360 (using round numbers, so a 50 % retracement back to 330/335 wouldn’t be a big surprise. A further break to the upside, through 360 form the pennant would give a longer term target of c375. If 330 is broken, all bets are off until a more concrete pattern appears.

December Corn

A more definite chart pattern, the double bottom through 245 from the lows at 230, giving an initial target of 255. Not quite made it yet, but looking for a bounce from the neckline at 245 (where it is now) to continue the upwards momentum. Any closes below 237 will negate the targets.

November Soybeans

A cup and handle breakout (excuse the pissed drawing) with a target of 560 which has been achieved . Again looking for some retracement back to a more sensible uptrend, psychological support at 550 looks favourite (favorite if you are from the US ) Major support at 535, closes below here and all long bets are cancelled.

November Rough Rice

A baby compared to the main three markets. A drifting retracement within the major bull trend, currently sitting at 6. Looking for a break through 6.75 as an entry point, or a break through 7 for the more cautious. 6.25 offering nearby support, then trend at 6. Closes below 5.75 would definitely be cause for alarm.

 

[oatman]

Nice ones, tho' I woudn't think rice is liquid enough.

 

[TBS]

Nice ones, tho' I woudn't think rice is liquid enough.

It kinda borders on the edge of speculative trading, although I would agree that it is nowhere near the 'big three'.

 

[TBS]

TBS US Commodity Revue

Grains

December Wheat

What started as a pennant has developed into a bull flag with 330 providing the critical support to the market, closes above 360 should pave the way to a fairly quick move to 390.

December Corn

Stuck in a wide range, not following it’s peer group. Range 230 – 247 (250 if you prefer a bit more safety). Watch and wait.

September Soybeans

Charging upwards, the recent retracement making the angle of trend a bit more sustainable.

The fast recent fast move is probably due to those that re-empted the break through 580 only to find the market moving against them, causing a reversal in positions. 580 is the critical support, 610 the immediate resistance, but this looks like it is a runner at the moment.

November Rough Rice

drifting to the bottom end of the current range, a break of 6.25 should herald a move down to 5.5. & required to show any willing to the upside – best left alone!

September Cocoa

Continues to slide away, 1400 provides the immediate psychological support, having a bit of a breather before deciding on the next big move, chances are it is likely to be to the downside. 1575-1625 providing the overhead resistance.
December Cotton

Good bounce from the recent lows, but still well constrained in the down trend with immediate resistance at 57 and 58, base support at 52.

September Coffee

Broken out of the long term wedge, trying to retest the bottom end. Looks likely to drop, base support 57, longer term target 39, worth keeping an eye on for the next break down through 60.

September Orange Juice

Found some support at 84, but still looking weak overall. Looking for a break to new lows for an entry point, or a break of 92.5 to the upside.

October Sugar

Still in a bull run of sorts, the 6.0 level is now critical support. Ayn touches around here may be worth trading to the upside with a short stop. For the risk averse a break of 7.25 may offer a more confirmed entry point.

 

[TBS]

Nice breakdown of the December corn contract, 230 providing the base support, braver souls may have taken the earlier break at 325. The target of the head and shoulder reversal of 20 points down to 210 has been met, now waiting for the next trade. A retest of the 230 level should 220 be broken looks to be on the cards, an extension of the current trend through 210 puts 190 in the frame if this current mini range 210/220 turns into a continuation pattern.

Looking strong, the break through the recent highs c350 complete a long term H&S reversal, or cup and handle if you prefer. Either way the initial target is 380, the highs reached this time last year, a further break here and 400 becomes a big psychological target

Soya has provided a great set of commodity target trades over the past 5 months or so, the break out of the range through 540 in April gave us a target of 580, which was acheived, subsequently followed by a classic double top through 550 with a 40 point target down to 510 - again hit. Now we are looking for the next move, 510/500 look to be providing good support, a further break through 500 would give a target c450 - much like the corn contract, patience is the name of the game until the next well defined chart pattern.

Although often seen as the 'also-ran' of the CBOT grains, Rough Rice finally broke out of it's range in mid July and is making new highs. The immediate target was 7.5, calculated from the height of the triangular pattern (7-6.25=0.75, break out at 6.75+0.75=7.5), however in the longer term there is also a good case for using the flag pole from the original break of 5.75 up to 7 (1.25), again extrapolated from the break upwards through 6.75, giving a target of 8 (nice round psychological number).

Grains, as with all agricultural markets, are nearly always a weather play - sure there are localised incidents that can move the market, but at the end of the day we are down to the basics of supply and demand. Europe is in the throes of harvest, and also in the throes of some of the highest temperatures we have seen for decades, this is serving to squeeze the markets at the moment as the higher quality product is demanding a premium - however, once everything is in from the fields I would expect there to be a two tier market for the physical goods, with the futures markets becoming quite volatile as the battle between quality and quantity moves the prices about, particularly when it comes to filling export orders.

 

[JonnyT]

Hi Sandy,

Wish me well, I'm long on Corn.

JonnyT

 

[TBS]

Hi Paul,

All the best with that one, just watch out if 210 gets broken!

 

[TBS]

Wheat breaking hard to new recent highs, 370 as I type.

JT - good news for corn is that the rise in wheat should support the price action for the moment - 218/2 +1/2 at the moment

 

[ianshep]

Paul,

As I'm still in short, I hope you lose your shirt

(No hard feelings, mate)

 

[TBS]

Paul,

As I'm still in short, I hope you lose your shirt

(No hard feelings, mate)

Holding above 220, 230 looks like the next target from the double bottom 210/220

 

[JonnyT]

Yes, I'm fairly confident I've picked a bottom!!!

JonnyT

 

[TBS]

Yes, I'm fairly confident I've picked a bottom!!!

JonnyT

Smelly fingers?

 

[ianshep]

Ah, yes.

I'm short in CBOT Sept which is not looking quite as perky as Dec. Nonetheless, came within a few cents of my trailing stop yesterday.

The trade has to end sometime, I suppose.

 

[TBS]

Always worthwhile keeping an eye out on the open interest, especially when the contract becomes the front month - long way to have to deliver 5000Bu of corn

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