Concept FX

[masif1]

Jason,

you could have set the trade up after the film or even this morning?

And mate, The Dark Knight rocks! The best Batman film ever and The Joker? Absolutely brilliant - took over the show. Real shame Heath Leadger is no more

And that is the one trade that I did not have to open. Trust me to miss out on the good ones.

I should have stayed at home instead of going to see the new batman film. It was not very good if you are thinking of going.

 

[LookUpLeg]

Don't get too excited folks. It rarely turns the way it just has. You tend to "sweat" for a while once a conceptfx trade triggers!!

Still, its bloody lovely when it does happen

 

[jason0181]

Masif1

I did set the trade up to start with, and then I cancelled it and was going to watch for a while, as I did not expect it to happen. Just goes to show what I know. We are always learning, and hopefully one day we will be traders.

I am going to be bold and predict that it will surge and breakout from the current SR, and stop at 10,850. You never know stranger things have happened.

 

[JillyB]

Just wanted to ask a question regarding the results that Concept publish. Are the entry and exit dates for the beginning or end of that day. For instance, they give: -

28-07-2008 24-07-2008 Sell EURGBP 0.7895 0.7925 -30 £31 (£930)

The entry was on 24 July - but was that at midnight (very early morning) or in the evening of that day?

Similarly with the exits are they taken at the start or end of the day noted?

I just ask as I'm trying to get my head round why they entered some trades and weren't stopped out - but still registered a smaller loss. The trade above is one in question. If you entered it at the start of the day (midnight) on 24th then it would have gone way against you and yet they stopped it out on Monday for a smaller loss???

Can anyone explain?

 

[SandyW]

Hi,

To be honest I haven't looked at the trade you refer to, and maybe I am missing your point. But the quick answer is that the trades open and close as and when the price is hit, whatever time of day. I assume the trade dates reflect UK local times.

Just wanted to ask a question regarding the results that Concept publish. Are the entry and exit dates for the beginning or end of that day. For instance, they give: -

28-07-2008 24-07-2008 Sell EURGBP 0.7895 0.7925 -30 £31 (£930)

The entry was on 24 July - but was that at midnight (very early morning) or in the evening of that day?

Similarly with the exits are they taken at the start or end of the day noted?

I just ask as I'm trying to get my head round why they entered some trades and weren't stopped out - but still registered a smaller loss. The trade above is one in question. If you entered it at the start of the day (midnight) on 24th then it would have gone way against you and yet they stopped it out on Monday for a smaller loss???

Can anyone explain?

 

[jason0181]

Jill

I will try and explain the above trade.

Concept give the alerts days in advance and the orders are placed EOD. The above trade would have kicked in at around 9am on the 24th, and it did go against us by about 10 pips on the first day, . The stop loss of 40 was only hit on the 28th (but since then it has fallen by 30 pips from the entry point.

The 40 pip stop loss is defined by the system for this pair, and any changes that they publish at the end of day would be reflected by altering the trade. I can not recall from memory changing the stop loss down, but maybe others can confirm that the exit point was changed on one of the evening updates.

Hope this helps.

 

[jason0181]

I have been thinking about the concept alerts, and how most of them get triggered (need to do some analysis to see exact figures).

All of the alerts have to reach the starting point, and then reverse. From the time when concept give the alert this can often a large swing depending on the pair. Two trades that spring to mind at the moment was the recent losing GBPUSD, and the current open trade.

Both these trades dropped dramatically 70-100 pips before opening. If the alerts had been hedged, there would already have been a profit, often enough to cover the stop loss if the trade does do badly. If the trade comes good, then there is an extra bonus of more profit.

I will study this during august, and post my results to see if it is worthwhile considering. Doing any real backtesting will be hard, as I dont have dates when the alerts came in, and what the current level, and opening prices were.

Let me know if anyone else thinks this is a good idea.

 

[Arek Okrasa]

I did this with GBPUSD...i moved my stop loss away...waited 2 days and I was on nice profit...now I am waiting for EURCHF...i could be in a profit this morning but I have decided waiting another day or two in order to take biger one... So in my opinion it is a good idea but a little bit risky...
Arek

I have been thinking about the concept alerts, and how most of them get triggered (need to do some analysis to see exact figures).

All of the alerts have to reach the starting point, and then reverse. From the time when concept give the alert this can often a large swing depending on the pair. Two trades that spring to mind at the moment was the recent losing GBPUSD, and the current open trade.

Both these trades dropped dramatically 70-100 pips before opening. If the alerts had been hedged, there would already have been a profit, often enough to cover the stop loss if the trade does do badly. If the trade comes good, then there is an extra bonus of more profit.

I will study this during august, and post my results to see if it is worthwhile considering. Doing any real backtesting will be hard, as I dont have dates when the alerts came in, and what the current level, and opening prices were.

Let me know if anyone else thinks this is a good idea.

 

[jason0181]

Arek

I have done it on a few, and have had mixed results. I want to check over a month period from all the alerts that come in and do not trigger if the loss taken is worth the risk.

If over the month there are consisten signs that it is a good thing, then I will do it all the time on trades.

 

[masif1]

Hi Jason,

I like the idea but not clear on how your going to apply it?

can you use the GBPUSD alert as an example please?

Thanks

I have been thinking about the concept alerts, and how most of them get triggered (need to do some analysis to see exact figures).

All of the alerts have to reach the starting point, and then reverse. From the time when concept give the alert this can often a large swing depending on the pair. Two trades that spring to mind at the moment was the recent losing GBPUSD, and the current open trade.

Both these trades dropped dramatically 70-100 pips before opening. If the alerts had been hedged, there would already have been a profit, often enough to cover the stop loss if the trade does do badly. If the trade comes good, then there is an extra bonus of more profit.

I will study this during august, and post my results to see if it is worthwhile considering. Doing any real backtesting will be hard, as I dont have dates when the alerts came in, and what the current level, and opening prices were.

Let me know if anyone else thinks this is a good idea.

 

[SandyW]

Snap

Hi Jason,

I've been thinkling exactly the same, and keeping a record of trades which don't trigger, as well as my normal trading record, so as to assess the possibilties. So far, of the 12 setups I have had, 7 triggered. Question is where to put the stoploss. I am thinking it should be at the 2:1 reward:risk level. Perhaps one should put the target earlier than the trigger price, to try and catch the setups that just miss the trigger point (?)

I have been thinking about the concept alerts, and how most of them get triggered (need to do some analysis to see exact figures).

All of the alerts have to reach the starting point, and then reverse. From the time when concept give the alert this can often a large swing depending on the pair. Two trades that spring to mind at the moment was the recent losing GBPUSD, and the current open trade.

Both these trades dropped dramatically 70-100 pips before opening. If the alerts had been hedged, there would already have been a profit, often enough to cover the stop loss if the trade does do badly. If the trade comes good, then there is an extra bonus of more profit.

I will study this during august, and post my results to see if it is worthwhile considering. Doing any real backtesting will be hard, as I dont have dates when the alerts came in, and what the current level, and opening prices were.

Let me know if anyone else thinks this is a good idea.

 

[Arek Okrasa]

Hi Jason

I did over this moth but it is risky...and probably when I will play with £7k or £10k I wouldn`t able to take the risk...but I will check over this month too...so we will see - the truth is...some times I cannot be in front of my computer...but if you want to go this way you should spend more time in front of the screen (in my opinion) So lets see how it works...
Even if we cannot take good profit at least we can loss much more (I hope)
And in July - I win 3 times out of 4...and now still waiting for the EURCHF...(but all of this really cost a time)
Arek
Good luck for us

Arek

I have done it on a few, and have had mixed results. I want to check over a month period from all the alerts that come in and do not trigger if the loss taken is worth the risk.

If over the month there are consisten signs that it is a good thing, then I will do it all the time on trades.

 

[phargo]

Claims parntership

Scanjet,

As a matter of principle we also recommend that people stay 100 miles away from such sites. You won't learn to trade that way - you will just waste money.

Hi Nine,

I too had viewed the site for Concept FX because I had given the email credence because it came to me as T2W Partner Offer E-mail;

Thanks for the clarification...

Phargo

 

[anddy26]

trade

away from concept for a min and our ability to be traders...Ive just taken a long on the usdjpy.....im not interested in news just the charts..im in at 10740 with 150 pip stop loss...im going on the 1day time frame any going to let this one run..and thots from other budding traders,
chart attached

 

[Arek Okrasa]

It looks excelent this one!
Arek

away from concept for a min and our ability to be traders...Ive just taken a long on the usdjpy.....im not interested in news just the charts..im in at 10740 with 150 pip stop loss...im going on the 1day time frame any going to let this one run..and thots from other budding traders,
chart attached

 

[SandyW]

Sidebets

Hi Jason,

Further thoughts on the Concept sidebet idea. I think the main flaw would be that we would effectively be putting a ceiling on the profit of each of these trades. That would fly in the face of the established principle "let profits run". The success of Concept itself is very clearly based on cutting losses and letting profits run.

Even though there would be a full profit on say 50% of the trades (I am assuming that half these trades would hit the Concept trigger price), it would be essential to set a tight stoploss to have a decent risk:reward ratio, and this would probably mean too many trades being closed before they moved into profit. Of course, if every trade triggered it would be better to ditch Concept altogether and use the signals perversely! Every trade would be a winner with no losers. Quite funny really, I often think of my own disastrous trading history and wonder if I would now be rich if I had always taken the exact opposite position on every trade! Perhaps the 95% of people who lose trading should think about it.

As you have no doubt noticed, a bet on the present pending trade triggering would have produced a quick loss. I don't think I will pursue the idea myself, but if you do it will be interesting to hear what you decide.

 

[GMP]

Quite funny really, I often think of my own disastrous trading history and wonder if I would now be rich if I had always taken the exact opposite position on every trade! Perhaps the 95% of people who lose trading should think about it.

I've wondered about doing this myself at times - I seem to go through periods when I can call the market wrong about 90% of the time! Are we subconciously punishing ourselves out of some deep, unknowable motivation?! Then again, old Chinese saying: "Some days, everything turn out sh*te."

 

[SandyW]

Hi GMP,

The crazy thing is that the situation is even funnier, because even the impeccable logic of reversing everything would be screwed up by the emotional greed/fear stuff. We would (well I would) still fail for all the same reasons. I know I keep plugging Concept, but what I really like is it eliminates the emotional decisions, and actually assists by making money management easy. I have always been pathetically lazy with money management, but at last I have come to fully believe it is critical.

I've wondered about doing this myself at times - I seem to go through periods when I can call the market wrong about 90% of the time! Are we subconciously punishing ourselves out of some deep, unknowable motivation?! Then again, old Chinese saying: "Some days, everything turn out sh*te."

 

[jason0181]

Sandy

I hear what you are saying about letting the profits run on the trades, and it would be possible, but would require more time watching them, and adjusting stop losses, which is against what we are trying to do with concept. EOD trading suits us because of other commitments.

I would like to try and stick to the 2:1 ratio that concept use, so when they announce the targets, my stop loss would be half of the expected pip gain. This would also be determined by the market at the time, and how volatile the pair. It would be risky, but I will log all alerts and trades for august and publish them for everyone.

 

[bigphil22]

Concept FX for a beginner?

Hi, I have been following this thread with great interest and naturally the Concept FX idea is attractive, if you believe their sales pitch and based upon the results published by members here. However Concept claim:

"Suitable for everyone:
whatever your background or experience, Concept-FX will be ideal for you. The system is provided with complete support and works on an End of Day basis so takes only a few minutes in the evening"

Is this true? I know nothing about FX trading and have little time. I do have a the money to buy the software and put in a 8K bank though.

Would I be "wise" to buy the software and simply follow their instrucions?

Cheers, Phil