stevespray
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Did anyone notice any errors with the data update from Friday 1st Aug ?
Steve.
Steve.
anddy26
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Hi steve..which error? i know there was a problem with the last trade showing the pairs back to front but the price was correct...what erors have you had?
Graham,
When you say you are "here for the social side", do you mean "here on this thread" or "here with Concept"? I am "here" with spreadbetting and Concept to make some money. Being "here with you guys" is interesting, I like connecting with other traders, and it helps me to not overtrade out of boredom! In between laying concrete, house renovation etc etc!
As for the hidden costs aspect, we trade by buying at one price and selling at another. Full stop. That is what is reflected in the Concept results. Given that our trades last a few days I feel that the cost of the spread is lost in the general turbulence, and there is nothing we can do about it anyway. Yes, the SB company, in the broad sweep of all the trades they are doing, make money from the spread, but it's not worth our thinking about. It would have more significant impact on profits if we were scalping. The roll over costs are there certainly, but I just treat them as petty cash, and do not actively account for them. I am too lazy to do any calcs on this one!
When you say you are "here for the social side", do you mean "here on this thread" or "here with Concept"? I am "here" with spreadbetting and Concept to make some money. Being "here with you guys" is interesting, I like connecting with other traders, and it helps me to not overtrade out of boredom! In between laying concrete, house renovation etc etc!
As for the hidden costs aspect, we trade by buying at one price and selling at another. Full stop. That is what is reflected in the Concept results. Given that our trades last a few days I feel that the cost of the spread is lost in the general turbulence, and there is nothing we can do about it anyway. Yes, the SB company, in the broad sweep of all the trades they are doing, make money from the spread, but it's not worth our thinking about. It would have more significant impact on profits if we were scalping. The roll over costs are there certainly, but I just treat them as petty cash, and do not actively account for them. I am too lazy to do any calcs on this one!
Hi Steve,
Are you referring to the fact that the new trade setup is a STOP BUY to open? Seems to me, looking at the graph, that this one is anticipating a breakout in the direction of the trend, rather than the more common reversal within a range/channel, which Concept usually sets up as a LIMIT BUY to open.
Are you referring to the fact that the new trade setup is a STOP BUY to open? Seems to me, looking at the graph, that this one is anticipating a breakout in the direction of the trend, rather than the more common reversal within a range/channel, which Concept usually sets up as a LIMIT BUY to open.
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anddy26
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Hi Sandy
yes i meant here on the thread for the social side...its good to have advice from proper traders as well as swap stories of mistakes we have all made and hope others dont make them...but they will make them because there is only one real way to learn in this game and its usually costly to start with.
Yes, money management is definitely the most important factor in trading. My off days are hugely frustrating at the time but ultimately don't matter because my exposure levels can cope with them and I've learned to stick to them. I can see the allure of something like Concept shouldering all the hassle though, especially if you just want to spend a few minutes a day on this stuff.
I'd be interested in the results, but I imagine these stops and limits would give you a 2:1 loss: win ratio. I did a similar experiment a couple of years back to verify if my trading approach was any better than chance and once there was a big enough sample size to make it statistically significant, it followed the expected probablilty principles - i.e. if your stop is twice as close to your opening than your limit, it'll be hit twice as often. Throw in the spread and you demonstrate SB's basic business model.
On the face of it, a 50% success rate would appear to be no better than chance but if the profit targets are set further away from opening than the stop losses, this isn't the case.
I am having to think about this. Seems that by using a stoploss, we skew "the number of winning trades : the number of losing trades" adversely, but skew "the average size of wins : the average size of losses" favourably. Maybe we come out even? So to make real profits there needs to be something other than money management to give the system an edge in the market. We need a way to ensure trades are selected which give a high probability, not just of movement in the right direction, but of a big movement in the right direction.
So it seems that Concept does offer an edge, not just money management. The chances of movement in the right direction are only about 45%, but the chances of a big move are significantly better. And if you look at the results you can see that the big moves are a very considerable part of its success. This is conventional wisdom on any trading system I believe. If you set a fixed profit target in advance, you do yourself no favours.
It would be very rash to test the random system I suggested with real money. Well it's OK with other people's, but not mine!
Jason,
I think this all applies to the system we were discussing earlier. Don't risk your money! Well maybe, but only if the number of trades that trigger is very very much higher than the number that don't. And I think it will prove to be only 50:50 ie random. The reason for this is that the trade setups are not selected because they have a high probability of triggering but because, IF IF IF they trigger, they have a high probability of a big movement.
So it seems that Concept does offer an edge, not just money management. The chances of movement in the right direction are only about 45%, but the chances of a big move are significantly better. And if you look at the results you can see that the big moves are a very considerable part of its success. This is conventional wisdom on any trading system I believe. If you set a fixed profit target in advance, you do yourself no favours.
It would be very rash to test the random system I suggested with real money. Well it's OK with other people's, but not mine!
Jason,
I think this all applies to the system we were discussing earlier. Don't risk your money! Well maybe, but only if the number of trades that trigger is very very much higher than the number that don't. And I think it will prove to be only 50:50 ie random. The reason for this is that the trade setups are not selected because they have a high probability of triggering but because, IF IF IF they trigger, they have a high probability of a big movement.
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Well I'm in - have just placed first three trades and am eager to see if they open. Am resolute that I will only look at my account each evening after the update as opposed to constantly monitoring the markets as I used to with my 'gut feel' trading approach.
I plan to fully document my experience so as to provide a 3rd party view on Concept much as Andy started to do.
Any update to your Concept spreadsheet Andy??
I plan to fully document my experience so as to provide a 3rd party view on Concept much as Andy started to do.
Any update to your Concept spreadsheet Andy??
Same here, I'm considering how to go ahead with this now, but if I do choose to proceed I'll keep everyone informed.
Thanks BTW to the people here who have freely shared their experiences and advice, much obliged. You know who you are :clap:
Cheers
Phil
anddy26
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hi Bja To be honest ive not kepy my spreadshet up to date now...im sure sandy will have.......BUT there are only 2 trades pending and 1 live one...be carefull of your live one..i wouldnttake it..if it goes against you your gonna lose a lot more..usdchf...is the trade thats live...put your 2 others on..
Spreadsheet
Yeah, I know ,it's nice to see someone's trading record, but mine would only reflect the trades Concept publish, at my humble size. In one month I have completed 6 trades, with one still open and included as it stands in following figures. I am showing a slight profit. Wins:Losses are 3:4. Average win is 6.8% on bank, and average loss is 3.5% on bank. Overall growth on bank is 6%. I have departed in very minor ways from the Concept prices, but these have evened out.
This is just a snapshot at a point in time. REMEMBER YOU HAVE TO TAKE A LONG VIEW.
Yeah, I know ,it's nice to see someone's trading record, but mine would only reflect the trades Concept publish, at my humble size. In one month I have completed 6 trades, with one still open and included as it stands in following figures. I am showing a slight profit. Wins:Losses are 3:4. Average win is 6.8% on bank, and average loss is 3.5% on bank. Overall growth on bank is 6%. I have departed in very minor ways from the Concept prices, but these have evened out.
This is just a snapshot at a point in time. REMEMBER YOU HAVE TO TAKE A LONG VIEW.
That's pretty much what I found, except that in practice you'd realise a loss due to either broker's fees or a SB's spread. The Win:Loss ratio is less important than the graph of your balance at the end of the week/month/year - if you're in profit, it doesn't much matter if you're losing more trades than you're winning, as long as your money management is holding firm.
It comes back to the old Turtle Trader mentality - don't impose profit limits, just let your winners run and use a trailing stop-loss if you don't want to risk giving potential profits back. Concept are confident enough to predict tops & bottoms, probably based on previous moves for each fx pair but then forex does oscillate more than stocks or T-Bonds so it's an understandable strategy.
Hi all you guys who are trading Concept.
No doubt those of you who have been trading for years may tell me I am crazy but I have been giving some thought to the Concept trades which have not yet triggered or never trigger and get cancelled. All these trades seem to be predicated on the price reaching the trigger point, going through that point and turning. If that is the case then when the alert is given the price often has quite a long way to go to the trigger point. Why not set up a second, or first in logical order, reverse trade, with relevant stop losses and limits of course, to take advantage of the move to the trigger point. You may not get the 200++ pips that concept seem to look for but I have just set mine up on the current sell alert which has not yet triggered with a 1:2 risk:reward ratio to, potentially make 70/80 pips - quite an acceptable little potential extra profit in my book. We will see if it works!
Torran
No doubt those of you who have been trading for years may tell me I am crazy but I have been giving some thought to the Concept trades which have not yet triggered or never trigger and get cancelled. All these trades seem to be predicated on the price reaching the trigger point, going through that point and turning. If that is the case then when the alert is given the price often has quite a long way to go to the trigger point. Why not set up a second, or first in logical order, reverse trade, with relevant stop losses and limits of course, to take advantage of the move to the trigger point. You may not get the 200++ pips that concept seem to look for but I have just set mine up on the current sell alert which has not yet triggered with a 1:2 risk:reward ratio to, potentially make 70/80 pips - quite an acceptable little potential extra profit in my book. We will see if it works!
Torran
Hi Torran,
Great minds think alike! If you go back a page or two you will find this idea has been floated and discussed. My conclusion is that it would not work in the long run, although you would certainly pull off some successes. The alerts are not there because they have a high probability of triggering......but because IF they trigger they offer a high chance of profit........read back on here as I say.
Actually for a laugh, and against my better judgement, I have just such a trade running on the EURJPY at present! 110 pips up as I write.
Great minds think alike! If you go back a page or two you will find this idea has been floated and discussed. My conclusion is that it would not work in the long run, although you would certainly pull off some successes. The alerts are not there because they have a high probability of triggering......but because IF they trigger they offer a high chance of profit........read back on here as I say.
Actually for a laugh, and against my better judgement, I have just such a trade running on the EURJPY at present! 110 pips up as I write.
Hi Sandy,
Sorry my small brain has seen the earlier dialogue on this and for some reason had not reigstered.
Understand why you say it should not work but surely it depends on what % of alerts posted do not trigger, and also make no signigicant movement in the direction postulated. If its around 50%,say, that make a significant movement in the right direction and you set your limit some way away from the trigger point they don't need to trigger to profit. Thus as long as you have set up the stop loss in the right place, I am using a trailing stop, then is one not going to make money anyway? As someone said earlier if you make on this thread it you win:loose 50% of the time on a 2:1 ratio then you should be making money?
Like you I have taken a punt anyway on the EURJPY on this basis but clearly got in much later than you as am no where near 110 pips yet, clearly slow off the mark!
I am finding this thread quite entertaining but also quite informative to a newcomer to trading.
Torran
Quick question - having placed the trades I notice that the markets need to move quite a bit in order to trigger them - is this the normal way of things and roughly what percentage of alerts actually hit their trigger?
Just wondering so as to manage my own expectations.
Cheers
BJA
Just wondering so as to manage my own expectations.
Cheers
BJA
Quick answer, yes, they usually have quite a way to go before triggering. My short experience indicates about 50% actually trigger.
anddy26
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Hi Bja
yes most of the trades will take 2-4 days to trigger..some may not even trigger and get cancelled.
This is what the chaps above are talking about...they want to take a punt on the trades meeting their target so making money as it triggers..then making money as it goes into the concept trading zone..I did consider this 4 weeks back but thought it was more greed than working out your system...Dont get me wrong if it works and 2 or 3 of you say it works my greed will kick in too!
But BJA concept is about swing trading so the trades may be live for many days. July was a very slow month . My advice is let the new trades come to you and let them run as the system says.
Expectations...log on 8.30 update..place your trade and enjoy life..enjoy it even more if concept live up to their own expectations and past resuts.
Graham
yes most of the trades will take 2-4 days to trigger..some may not even trigger and get cancelled.
This is what the chaps above are talking about...they want to take a punt on the trades meeting their target so making money as it triggers..then making money as it goes into the concept trading zone..I did consider this 4 weeks back but thought it was more greed than working out your system...Dont get me wrong if it works and 2 or 3 of you say it works my greed will kick in too!
But BJA concept is about swing trading so the trades may be live for many days. July was a very slow month . My advice is let the new trades come to you and let them run as the system says.
Expectations...log on 8.30 update..place your trade and enjoy life..enjoy it even more if concept live up to their own expectations and past resuts.
Graham
