Concept FX

[jason0181]

Bja118

The markets do need to move in our favour to get the triggers to come good. Not sure of the exact number of trades that come good, as I have not kept a record on this (but have just started this to see if there is a way of trading this to make extra profit), but would 'guess' at about 60% of the alerts triggering.

If you get the chance to look at charts when the alerts come in, you can start to see the logic that is being used. Depending on what package you use, it is possible to draw lines on the charts to show the entry and loss points, and draw trend lines to estimate if the trade will alert. It can be useful to get some extra knowledge on the forex market.

Hopefully the losing streak is coming to an end, so you will get some early profit

Jason

 

[jason0181]

We all managed to reply at the same time.

The collective knowledge all working towards the same goal

 

[bja118]

Cheers guys - am definitely going to spend some time gathering data to see if the move towards trigger could bring additional profitable trades.

 

[explorer626]

hi Bja To be honest ive not kepy my spreadshet up to date now...im sure sandy will have.......BUT there are only 2 trades pending and 1 live one...be carefull of your live one..i wouldnttake it..if it goes against you your gonna lose a lot more..usdchf...is the trade thats live...put your 2 others on..

Hi Andy,
Not sure which trade your talking about, but unless I am missing something, you will have a stoploss on that one as well, and will know what the maximum loss could be ?
Is it as simple as that ?

Peter

 

[SandyW]

Like you I have taken a punt anyway on the EURJPY on this basis but clearly got in much later than you as am no where near 110 pips yet, clearly slow off the mark!
Torran

Torran,

I closed the "trade" when it started falling back, and took 100 pips. Undeserved profit from a gamble, not a trade.

This whole idea is really just a gamble. What you say looks simple, but it's not that simple. The move towards or away from the trigger is random. And the size of the move will be random too. You could as easily just put on the Concept trade without waiting for the trigger and hope it will move in your favour. Another thought: what do you do when the setup anticipates a STOP to open, rather than a LIMIT to open? In this case there is no reversal involved. You would effectively be just putting on the Concept trade early. I suggest that if that were a good idea, we might as well just open the trades as soon as Concept sets them up, without waiting for them to trigger!

I may duck out of further discussion on this, because I'm not sure there is much more I can contribute, but I will be intrigued to see what others find. It will not be resolved by looking at trades over a short term such as a month. It would probably need at least a year's worth of trades to show some validity, and even then not be reliable enough to trade, except as a gamble. I think you would need to have at least 75% of the trades trigger. I don't think setting your close before the trigger price would give any advantage. If 100% were to trigger, of course the system would be a no brainer!

Gamble with this system by all means, but don't call it trading!

 

[SandyW]

Hi Andy,
Not sure which trade your talking about, but unless I am missing something, you will have a stoploss on that one as well, and will know what the maximum loss could be ?
Is it as simple as that ?

Peter

Hi Peter,

I think what Andy is saying is that the open trade has already moved away from the stoploss level, so if you enter now and use the Concept stoploss your risk will be greater than 5%. Also, the objective price is closer to the present price than when it opened, so you stand to gain less. ie the risk:reward ratio is unattractive. Best not to enter a trade that is already running. Of course if it were currently in a loss situation, you could argue your risk reward ratio would be better as a result of your delayed entry, but that is not the position on this trade at present. You may be lucky, it's your money!

 

[Torran]

Torran,

I closed the "trade" when it started falling back, and took 100 pips. Undeserved profit from a gamble, not a trade.

This whole idea is really just a gamble. What you say looks simple, but it's not that simple. The move towards or away from the trigger is random. And the size of the move will be random too. You could as easily just put on the Concept trade without waiting for the trigger and hope it will move in your favour. Another thought: what do you do when the setup anticipates a STOP to open, rather than a LIMIT to open? In this case there is no reversal involved. You would effectively be just putting on the Concept trade early. I suggest that if that were a good idea, we might as well just open the trades as soon as Concept sets them up, without waiting for them to trigger!

I may duck out of further discussion on this, because I'm not sure there is much more I can contribute, but I will be intrigued to see what others find. It will not be resolved by looking at trades over a short term such as a month. It would probably need at least a year's worth of trades to show some validity, and even then not be reliable enough to trade, except as a gamble. I think you would need to have at least 75% of the trades trigger. I don't think setting your close before the trigger price would give any advantage. If 100% were to trigger, of course the system would be a no brainer!

Gamble with this system by all means, but don't call it trading!

Hi Sandy,

Thanks for the advice. Not proposing to Gamble but seeking to learn about trading. From what you are saying it seems wise not to go anywhere near this one at present, unless as others may be doing just on a paper basis. Will stick to the recommended alerts while I try to learn much more about the whole trading area.

Torran

 

[SandyW]

...... but seeking to learn about trading.............

Me too. And in my case about time. I have discovered all too late that my trading has been just gambling. I have lost a great deal over 4 years. I do find this interesting, and exploring trading ideas, even if they prove useless, is very valuable. Learning from mistakes is good, the problem is avoiding repetition of the same ruddy mistakes! Maybe I'll never learn, but I hope to.

 

[anddy26]

Hi Andy,
Not sure which trade your talking about, but unless I am missing something, you will have a stoploss on that one as well, and will know what the maximum loss could be ?
Is it as simple as that ?

Peter

Hi Peter..think sandy has answered the question..once its kicked in and your in profit..you cant afford to get in unless you shift your stop loss..then your gambling without any technical analysis.

Sandy torran and others..put up a chart with 4hr and 1 day time frames..not lesser...and not one of concepts..lets go aus/usa.....just a random pair and lets see what we thinks gonna happen and explain why...im sure with a collective head 3 out of 5 would come out with the same decision...but how they get there may be very different..

and when we do it..i want to place a trade once decided and and hope it triggers over 2-4 days..not every one will be right but even if you wanted to paper trade it it could be fun learning??

Graham

 

[SandyW]

Audusd

Hi Peter..think sandy has answered the question..once its kicked in and your in profit..you cant afford to get in unless you shift your stop loss..then your gambling without any technical analysis.

Sandy torran and others..put up a chart with 4hr and 1 day time frames..not lesser...and not one of concepts..lets go aus/usa.....just a random pair and lets see what we thinks gonna happen and explain why...im sure with a collective head 3 out of 5 would come out with the same decision...but how they get there may be very different..

and when we do it..i want to place a trade once decided and and hope it triggers over 2-4 days..not every one will be right but even if you wanted to paper trade it it could be fun learning??

Graham

OK, I've had a quick look at the daily chart over 2 years. It would appear that the 200 day moving average is more or less acting as support . It dropped below that today. The 4 hour chart is showing an ongoing descent, with no sign of stopping. MAYBE we wait for them both to reverse, and go long as soon as the daily CLOSE is above the 200MA?

 

[anddy26]

audusd

can we pick another pair..lol.....ok my chart shows a trendting chart but i would like it to fall too 0.8910..as i see strong support down there...i dont use ema's as i dont know how too..but would like to share your experience on them..

 

[SandyW]

Off Topic?

can we pick another pair..lol.....ok my chart shows a trendting chart but i would like it to fall too 0.8910..as i see strong support down there...i dont use ema's as i dont know how too..but would like to share your experience on them..

Graham,

Just thinking (oh no not again) that maybe we are rather off topic on this. Not everyone will want to read this stuff, which has nothing to do with Concept-FX. A new thread might be better.

 

[anddy26]

im happy with a new thread how ever i also beleive that concept users are budding traders...so as long as we make the reference to our new thread im happy..

Graham

 

[explorer626]

Graham,

Just thinking (oh no not again) that maybe we are rather off topic on this. Not everyone will want to read this stuff, which has nothing to do with Concept-FX. A new thread might be better.

Hello . I am happy with this thread as we have mixture here, some have been on Concept for few months , some just started . Those who thought it was a scam
are almost silent now. Some indecisive persons-- like me -trying to decide , as a pensioner, whether a portion of my pension fund could be classed as money I can afford to lose .Some are due to report SB results and some looking at DIY FX choices and possible ways to improve a bit on Concept. Nearly all very interesting .
Peter

 

[Torran]

Grahmas suggestion for a DIY trading alert

OK, I've had a quick look at the daily chart over 2 years. It would appear that the 200 day moving average is more or less acting as support . It dropped below that today. The 4 hour chart is showing an ongoing descent, with no sign of stopping. MAYBE we wait for them both to reverse, and go long as soon as the daily CLOSE is above the 200MA?

Sandy/Graham et al.

Firstly if you want to move this discussion to a new thread fine if its seen to be off topic. Just let me know where the new thread is as would like to be part of it.

Are we still on the AUSUSD? Graham seemed to want to pick another pair?

Sandy following your lead have looked at charts for AUSUSD and particularly the historical 200MA it certainly does seem to have broadly been the ulitmate support level for the last couple of years. Before that it was a mile off and in the middle of the range for a time but so historical it probably doesn't matter for present. Will certainly look at charts a bit more closely in relation to your suggestion as to when to go long after the current freefall reverses. If your logic is correct then should not be too far away as already 100 pips below the 200MA and a long way to go back up if we got it right!

Incidentally I am using IG as an SB provider, their standard platform does not provide a 4hr chart. Anyone know how to make it deliver one?

Torran

 

[SandyW]

Our Current Trade

Our current trade is trying hard, but struggling a bit to make the objective. So tempting to just close it and take the profit that's there! As matters stand, with the new stoploss in place, we have roughly 1:1 risk reward ratio, ie price is midway between stoploss and limit close. But of course we are really in a no risk trade now, as our stoploss is above the opening price. Since writing the above, when the price was around 1.0540, it has dropped back somewhat.

The price is pushing on a resistance level that goes back to May, and this also coincides with the 200 day MA. The dollar has been generally rising of late. Look at Oil, Gold as well as currencies. When the dollar eases back, our trade could bounce down off the resistance level and the 200 DMA. Or, if the dollar continues to strengthen, it could breakthrough.

BTW, for anyone new to this, the 200 DMA is generally considered to be a very significant indicator. A bounce off it or a breakthrough are worth trading. The fact that we have it coinciding with a resistance level adds to it's significance.

So is it to be Concept discipline or a discretionary close!? So painful, but I am sticking with discipline this time (I think), or shall I? Maybe toss a coin. Perhaps ask Gordon Brown what he thinks, he's the man for hard economic times, well isn't he? But he sold our Gold at the bottom. No, "plan the trade and trade the plan", you know it's the right thing to do. Analysis paralysis. If in doubt, do nothing. Stop watching it.

 

[SandyW]

away from concept for a min and our ability to be traders...Ive just taken a long on the usdjpy.....im not interested in news just the charts..im in at 10740 with 150 pip stop loss...im going on the 1day time frame any going to let this one run..and thots from other budding traders,
chart attached

Graham,

Have a look at this thread:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...08-trader123-s-trading-system.html#post473412

 

[SandyW]

Other Systems

Guys,

Have a look at these links:

Nirvana Systems - VisualTrader Home (Could be used for FX trading. Interesting to read the user guide, as it illustrates lots of trading strategies)

Welcome to FX53.com | forex trading, trading system, spread betting (Indicates it might enable you to multiply your account by 12 in 7 months! Concept eat your heart out!)

Open a Free Forex Practice Account and Experience the Forex market today! - CMS Forex (Offers a very useful free practice account, using Visual Trader)

 

[stevespray]

Morning campers,

I’ve been away in the sunshine for a bit hence no comments on this thread. Just did some reading back to come up to speed on the various discussions.

With regard to systems and money management – For a system to make money in the longer term it absolutely MUST have an edge over the market. Systems which don’t will ultimately get wiped out. Be on guard for systems which use clever money management or ‘staking systems’ to disguise poor system signals. A good test for a system is its ability to make profits using ‘flat stakes’ – this means that it should be able to make money consistently over an extended period of time.

I think that perhaps some are trying to run before they can walk. My advice for people who are reasonably new to trading is to simply follow the concept system and nothing else. Practice the discipline required. This will teach you so much. It will teach you stuff which you have not previously thought about – these will mainly be psychological issues which relate to you and not the system itself.

With regard to the Concept signals and results themselves. I notice that, from time to time, the system seems to produce some very large winning positions. Given how the system updates every night with a target and a stop loss I can only assume that these big winners must have pretty much triggered and then gone massively into profit on the same day – if this was not the case then the system would have generated a price objective on the evening that the trade triggered. For the profit to be so large something must occur within the system rules which prohibits a price objective from being set too close and thus limiting profits. I have noticed (since I have been running the system) that the better trades have been the trades which have triggered and gone into a fairly healthy profit fairly quickly – I’m going to observe this further so see if this is significant.

Happy Trading,
Steve.

 

[SandyW]

Morning campers,

I’ve been away in the sunshine for a bit hence no comments on this thread. Just did some reading back to come up to speed on the various discussions.............

Happy Trading,
Steve.

Hi Steve,

Excellent post, thanks.

Start by having a look at the EURJPY long trade which opened on 20 Mar 08, went quickly into profit, peaked some 1200 pips up on 22 Apr, and then pulled back a long way before closing on 8 May only 700 pips up. A run of 49 days (longest in the Concept history). And the biggest single profit in the results. Imagine if somehow it could have been closed at the peak! Whatever stop loss strategy was in place caused a lot of profit to be given up.

Our current trade is in profit but struggling to do better, and maybe it should just be closed because it has had its chance and is now just dragging out an inevitable fall back?