Clear Recomendation For EUR/USD (Elliot Analysis)

[patricio_w]

It was only an update of my last chart of last week, heres all the analysis, with updated 1440m and 60m data charts

1h Chart.
If Dec2 low till 25jan high is a W1 or a WA, then we could see eventually a declain till 1.1991 and 1.1913, thats the typical retracements for a W2 or WB, not shown in the chart becasuse i can put them all together. This downside should last until 15 to 17 of february, but in the short-term should be limited by the 1.2072
If you want a recomendation about this chart i suggest to go long followint ht e oscilator, in the short term the 1.2072 is a nice stop loss, but the view is bearish in the middle term

1440 m.
Here is the new chart. Time limit for the end of this W2 or B is 20th of feb, should be limited by the 0.618 fibo ratio that is 1.1901
In the short time, my count is bullish, limited by 1.2072 Wave A of W2 or B ??, if that is correct we shall see a rally looking for wb of the ABC of W2 or B

10080 m data.
On the weekly chart iam posting a 1.2.3.4.5 wave count on the downside y pretty clear, and this is a correction than should be limited at 0.618 fibo ratio 1.2891 in price, about time, this correction shoul not excedd ending of April, 20 of april to be accourated.

This is all for now, to resume this, in the very short term my count is bullish, in the short middle my count is side ways, rather bearish, lookinf for more correction of this possible W2 or b, on the middle - long term trade my count is bullish

My kindest regards to all of you

 

[patricio_w]

The hole calendar of this week, important economic information about the pair
Kindest Regards to all

Read first the date, then the hour (eastern Time) the the Realease (specific name data),then the number than the market expects for that data, an then the prior last read




Jan 30 08:30 Personal Income 0.4% 0.3%
Jan 30 08:30 Personal Spending 0.8% 0.3%
Jan 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index 0.9% 0.8%
Jan 31 10:00 Chicago PMI 59.5 61.5
Jan 31 10:00 Consumer Confidence 104.8 103.6
Jan 31 14:15 FOMC policy statement . .
Feb 01 00:00 Auto Sales 5.3M 5.3M
Feb 01 00:00 Truck Sales 7.8M 8.2M
Feb 01 10:00 Construction Spending 0.1% 0.2%
Feb 01 10:00 ISM Index 55.0 55.6
Feb 01 10:30 Crude Inventories NA -2309K
Feb 02 08:30 Initial Claims NA 283K
Feb 02 08:30 Productivity-Prel 1.8% 4.7%
Feb 03 08:30 Average Workweek 33.8 33.7
Feb 03 08:30 Hourly Earnings 0.3% 0.3%
Feb 03 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls 245K 108K
Feb 03 08:30 Unemployment Rate 4.9% 4.9%
Feb 03 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. NA 91.5
Feb 03 10:00 Factory Orders 1.1% 2.5%
Feb 03 10:00 ISM Services 59.1 61.0

 

[patricio_w]

Lets proceed with the wave count of this corrective rally of the 25Jan High.
This Wave A should be finished at 1.2063 low, if is not complete is near completition, we can see the typical subidivision of that Wave A into 5 minor waves.
Then if Wave A is in place, then we should see a rally up for a Wave B, the problem is price and time. Wave B are difficult to determine, we probably will see subdivision ABC of that Wave B, but all i can say is that the Wave A was strong, quikly, and it penetrated the 0.786, of Wave 1 or A, so it seams than the corrective rally is strong. Is that the case, Wave B should not correct the 100% of the Wave A, so 0.618 of Wave A will probably enough for it

I draw a possible scenario for the next 15 days, ending at middle of february with the complete correction of the WAVE 1 or A.

That corrective rally, as i said on prior comments, should be ending between 1.1990 and 1.1901, maximun correction for a Wave 2 or B

Lets see how s going on

 

[patricio_w]

About Euro?, well my friends, it seams than we are on the correct view so far, the lines i draw yerterday are correct by now, lets wait an see where this minor wave a ends, if it is a minor wave a of course.
Iam posting a chart with the update of the market, it is the same chart of yesterday night with the bars over the draw i did

Have my kindest regards
Para mismo analisis en castellano ver richdad.com.ar

 

[patricio_w]

Friends,
Iam aviable now to post chart of the GBP/USD also, iam going to do only with 1440m data for now, if ive got the time i will add sometimes also 60m data, i hope you enjoy this.

GBP/USD
28Nov low at 1.7049 was the end of the downtrend, finishing on the Wave 5 in green, should be the ending, Elliot Wave Analysis is a dynamic one, so all are possible scenarios, not trues.
If this is correct, then we are seeing the correction of that rally, that correction started with a Wave 1 or A, why?. After a rally comes a correction, and could be in 5 waves or could be and ABC correction, i really dont know yet. If you see the Wave 2 or B, this Wave was corrected more than 0.786 of the Wave 1 or A, if it is a Wave 2 should not correct more than 0.786, but could be a flat one, and thats why could be still a wave 2
We are seeing the definition of witch count is the best to have, lets studie the 2 scenarios

ABC.
If its an ABC, the Wave C is complete at 1.7935 25Jan????. If that the case, if wave C is in place at that point, the we should be specting a correction of that Wave C between the 0.500 and 0.618 fibo retracements ratios, that is between 1.7532 and 1.7437
If Wave C is not in place, then could be running till the next resistance point of and ABC, that is the 1.1829

5 Waves Count Correction
If this is the case of a Wave 1.2.3.4.5, then we are in the Wave 3, an it has 2 possible targets, one is between 1.8229 and 1.8359 and the other around 1.8909

So for the time being on the very short term my count is bearish, correcting this correction, on the middle long term trade my count is bullish, even is an ABC or and 1.2.3.4.5 correction

See my chart below

Para mismo analisis en castellano ver richdad.com.ar

 

[patricio_w]

For those who are following the evolution of the Euro in 1H Chart, here is an update chart. I leave the original draw i made just to follow the idea.
If this is a minor Wave A, is it finished?
Well, there are to posibilities, one is that is finished at 1.2188 high, the other is than 1.2188 is Minor Wave 3 of minor wave a, then comes minor wave 4, and we still looking for the end of it at minor Wave 5

In my opinion this is not a good time to trade, correction are very unpredictible, an if we are on the right side this is the one.
On the other hand we have to notice than i am imagening an ABC correction, but could be also a complex one of and a,b,c,d,e forming

At 4am GMT i willl post the daily and hour updates charts, also GBP
Kindest Regards to all

para mismo analisis en español richdad.com.ar

 

[fxmarkets]

good posts, cheers, Now we have traded at 1.2162 asian session and early london seems so far to be nudging off those levels, heading towards 1.2097 on my charts maybe.. point b on yours ?

Hmm trading wise i think its ok, but I'm talking intra, now my reading your thoughts because I follow the euro and I am observing this thread watching it print out which is interesting, how do you trade it, do you position trade it yourself or look to enter hourlies. Just being nosey .

Or do you provide analysis to traders with the idea of "trade the hell of of that you buggers. "

Rgds.
Fx.

 

[patricio_w]

good posts, cheers, Now we have traded at 1.2162 asian session and early london seems so far to be nudging off those levels, heading towards 1.2097 on my charts maybe.. point b on yours ?

Hmm trading wise i think its ok, but I'm talking intra, now my reading your thoughts because I follow the euro and I am observing this thread watching it print out which is interesting, how do you trade it, do you position trade it yourself or look to enter hourlies. Just being nosey .

Or do you provide analysis to traders with the idea of "trade the hell of of that you buggers. "

Rgds.
Fx.

Dear Fx,
Yes i trade my own money, have my own plan, following my analysis on EW and also a carefoul studie of the Oscilator and the Candels. I do not trade intraday, i rather the swing trade, like 3 or 4 trades per month.
An also yes, my idea of this post is to share information and my knoledge with other people, iam not use to post "signals" an i do not trade other people s money
Take my kindest regards

Too much to be real, isnt it?. Well, its lovely when things come this way, but is not always like this, unfortunately. Minor Wave a should be complete then at 1.2188 and now if that its true we are seeing the formation of minor Wave b, to where???
Looking at this kind of correction, most typical target is 1.2063, that is the line in black, it is the 100% correction of minor Wave a

So, those who wants to risk some pips, 1.2063 is a nice stop loss, aproaching that target all positions Longs should be good, to catch the minor Wave c.

It is a risk yet, because this kind of corrections could bring us a Wabe B flat, if that the case, the Flat Waves can correct 168% of Wave A, so take a good look at the Oscilator, wait for the crossover lines in the Over Sold zone, an then we can go long with 1.2063 as a stop loss

Look at the prjections i made, if i have to say wher exactly Minor Wave C will ends, i will say between 1.2091 and 1.2087

On the chart i leave all the original draws, just to follow the analysis

Kindest Regards to all

Para mismo analisis en castellano ver richdad.com.ar

 

[patricio_w]

Just on the 1.2047, thats the 1.618 Alternate Price Projection of the minor Wave a, is that it?, is minor wave b in place?. Well could be or could be not, but the important thing now is than the oscilator is near to make the crossover lines on the Over Sold Zone, a couple of hour more and we will see is there is o there is not a chance to catch the minor Wave C
Heres the chart to take a look

Mismo analisis en castellano en richdad.com.ar

 

[patricio_w]

Look at the crossover on the Over Sold Zone, now its a goog oportuntity if this is a correct analysis.
Look at the two blacks lines, one is the low 1.2045, the idea is to put the stop loss 1 pips below 1.2044, the other black line is the high after the crossover, so the idea is to enter there 1.2064, is 20 pips stop loss, acceptable margin, and possible run till 1.2220, see the chart below

 

[patricio_w]

Look at the crossover on the Over Sold Zone, now its a goog oportuntity if this is a correct analysis.
Look at the two blacks lines, one is the low 1.2045, the idea is to put the stop loss 1 pips below 1.2044, the other black line is the high after the crossover, so the idea is to enter there 1.2064, is 20 pips stop loss, acceptable margin, and possible run till 1.2220, see the chart below

 

[fxmarkets]

hmmm heading towards squeeze time, I see the hourlies are attempting to head higher , pullback wise, needs to look confident if it trades at 1.2040/46 for upside.(today) but they do like to shake you out on this one...

Patricio, with your analysis and your time frame of trading with the likes of Non Farm payroll days, whats your stance if you are in a position or do you stand aside until the dust settles ?

Rgds.
Fx.

 

[patricio_w]

First step done, 1.2076 was taking out, its an aproaching than Wave 5 is in place, should be complete taking out now 1.2139.

The Dt oscilator is showing now on the Over Bought Zone on the 1h chart, trend should be bullish on the short term, 1440 chart shows the oscilator on the Over Sold ZOnes, bullish for a least few days.

I said before than this hold correction should be ending at least 0.500 fo the Wave 1 or A, thats mean 1.1981 on the dayli chart.

So, its the Wave 2 or B ended at 1.2031?

is the Wave 5 be completed breaking 1.2139?



My opinion is than this correction should not be ended until 20th of February, tomorrow there is a big information on the market, we shall see, kindest regards to all



Para mismo analisis en español ver richdad.com.ar

 

[patricio_w]

Fx,
Yesterday i placed a recomendation of going long with the Euro on 1.2055/60 with the stop on 1.2044/55, i thought it was a good position to take, seeing than the oscilator and the counts were possible correct. The correction of the WC was bigger, well it was really i think a W5, so i made a new count. Like you said tomorrow will be very dustie, i rather not to trade those days, plus than the analysis is not so clear, an the oscilators are in sides ways (1440m and 60m data)
Of course is only my point of view. i accept others visions, is always a pleasure
Kindest Regards

 

[patricio_w]

The last chart i spot yesterday showed to possible scenarios, and i was preferd the bearish scenario, it seam s so far than was the correct one

We are on 3 of February, so we still have a lot of time of this correction, i said before than my time projecton is between 15 and 20 of February



1h Chart.

I leaves the draws i made yesterday justo to follow my idea. Wave 1 or A (its almost and A i think) should be complete at 3feb at 1.2109, why i think is an A?. Well notice than i puted Wave 2 or B in the 100% of the correction, and i said before than this kind of correction could correct 1.618 of the Wave A, that s mean what we call Wave B Flat. That preice is 1.1985, not so far



dayli Chart.

I leave my olds draws, and remember my bearish middle term scenario??, well is reaching almost the 0.500 correctio, is that it?? or shall we go for more?

Today is just for look, lets look



Kindest Regards

 

[patricio_w]

1h Chart Analysis

With the lowest price( 3Feb )should be an W5:5, also a Wave A of this correction?
If iam on the right, then Typical, i mean Typical Wabe B price projection should be 1.2145/86
Any downside (to keep this anayliis) should be limited by 1.1968, to 1.1912 maximun acceptable price target for a Wave A
About Time Projection, this Wave B should be ending between 8Feb to 10 Feb.
Look at the reversal on the Oscilator, same view, we should be expecting a trend up next week, in my opinion following the Oscilator every position should be to the LONG, waiting fo trend reversal on Over Sold Zone
Important: suports should be the lowest price 1.1968, then 1.1953 and the last of this analysis 1.1912

1440 m Data
Like i was saying form the begining, we are in a correction, than should be ending at the end of March, could be more, 7 of April
It seams than Wave A is in place, is that is true this Wave B to the upside should last a few days with the oscilator in the OverSold Zone, and then Wave C should be ending between 21Feb and 10 of March, looking the ideal price target zone of the Wave 2 or B, 0.618 retracemnts.
Wave 3 or C should be ending the correction at the end of march between 1.2652 and 1.2891

10080m chart
Same chart as last week, looks where and when this correction should be ending

Conlcusion
In my opinion the next days the trend should be up looking for Wave B target, in the short -middle term the trend should be down looking for Wave c:wave 2 or b price and time targets, in the middle - long term the trend should be up, looking for the end of this correction, on the price and targets mencioned before

Have my kindest regards to all of you

mismo analisis en castellano ver richdad.com.ar

 

[patricio_w]

See the chart bellow, it seams a double bottom aspect. Aproaching to the zone at 1.1968 is a possible correction of 100% of the posssible Wave A, coul be a nice wAVE b, with a double bottom form.
Also look at the oscilator is in the Over Sold Zone traing to perform a crossover, not yet in place, but possible trend reversal signal
Is that the case Wave C has to possible targets with the red squares

 

[patricio_w]

I see a good opportunity for a Long trade, if this candle forming in 60m data, between 15.00 and 1600 GMT touchs 1.1982 (one pip above the prior candle) then there is a good chance, with a stop loss one pip behind the minimun 1.1960

 

[patricio_w]

The first impretion was incorrect, the Wave 5:5 was not in place either complete. It seams this is a long Wave 5, i did not make all the Alternate Price Projection and Retracements on the chart because is too much lines, too much subdivision.
What i can say is than EC is reaching its bottom, the W5:5 is near completition, if is not already complete, 1.1953 was one of the targets, the other possible is 1.1927, and the last one of my analysis is 1.1912.
i still insist on the Long side, remember we are in W 2 or B, this should be a correction lasting till middle of february.
If i am correct, this Wave A is complete or near completition, and a Wabe B to the northside should be see, wait again to the oscilator in position of Over sold zone, kindest regards to all

 

[patricio_w]

while the Dtoscilator is entering on the over sold zone, it will be a new chance for a rally to the northside. This posible minor Wave A or 1, was corrected (if its complete) by aminor Wave 2 or B, bwetween 0.618 and 0.786 fibo retracements. i rather to say wave 1,2, it looks like more than a correction form

if that s the case and possible minor wave 2 is in place at two pips above the 0.786, then possible Wave 3 or see is coming. Ill be wait for the oscilator to be in correct place to extend this analysis



Kindest regards