Choice Odds Fixed Odds and Binaries

[Bintrader]

Well I can't say for certain that all the "manual" filler are infact manual. They certainly don't input data and do a calc lol. All they need to do is wait 10 secs, see what their quote is and accept or reject. In the case of Choice they appear to be checking for arbs with other firm as they reject even though their quote does not changes, only to change their quote 60 secs later. The other reason why I am sure (but not certain) about the manual process is that quite a few firms have told me

I admire your commitment to certainty in the face of an uncertain axiom. I fail to see how we can induce 'truth' from the effect rather than a known cause.

We are all hypothesising and I maintain that the delay is a function of some automated process, if we do assume for the purpose of the discussion that it legitimately exists. Moreover, how do we know that the other vendors listed all do the same? This is not public information and it would be very expensive to manually validate binary derivative instruments. Far cheaper to hold them in the system, await further data for model input validation and then confirm the trade. Manual just doesn't make cost efficient sense in this instance.

Please note that I am not defending (or attacking) the practices of these people. Rather I am saying that manual fills make no economic sense in this context. It is not the same as spread betting where the 'price' is observable in the market and the question is one of liquidity and spread. The latter instance lends itself far better to manual interjection.

To manually validate individual bets one would require a large number of people inputting 3 to 6 variables into a model. This is illogical when a program can do it just as easily. The more I consider the matter the more probable I consider it that they are awaiting validation of their spot price input by sitting on the order until more ticks arrive.

If you have evidence that this proposition is missing an important premise then please submit it so we can throw it into the mix.

NQR

 

[NotQuiteRandom]

OK, so let us take your hypothesis a stage further.

1) You maintain that the manual process involves the receipt of an order followed by waiting, seeing what their quote is n minutes (where n is 10 in you statement) and then accepting or rejecting the bet based thereon.

I don't understand why this would ever require a human. The bet price in an over the counter environment is a function of the parameters in the risk-neutral formula. Why not (as I suggest in one of the posts on this thread) simply hold the bet in the system for a period of time to see if the underlying market has moved, or just as easily wait to see, as you suggest, if the odds move. At what stage does any of this require a human? I just don't get it.

2) Checking for arbs? This is a bizaar proposition. Why would they do that? Their models drive their prices and they know that they will profit on their aggregate book at those prices. This model exists independent of outside parties. What do they care if you get an arb on? By analogy, if you sell a tennis racket on eBay for $100 but know that your buyer has a friend ready to buy it for $101 but it only cost you $90 this morning - do you care? No.

As always, just my 2c

NQR

 

[yellowberry]

I'm new to betting in general, let alone fixed odds and so on but I'm liking ChoiceOdds.
User friendly, great customer support ... making the first steps into betting has been easy and I'm making money here too, I'm giving myself another two days till I get cocky.

 

[NotQuiteRandom]

Welcome back.

 

[yellowberry]

Welcome back to what? Guessing that was pointed at me considering no one else posted after you.

 

[nutter punter]

I'm new to betting in general, let alone fixed odds and so on but I'm liking ChoiceOdds.
User friendly, great customer support ... making the first steps into betting has been easy and I'm making money here too, I'm giving myself another two days till I get cocky.

You are mad to trust those boys. I have had to withdraw all my money from the account as there practices are so dodgy it is unreal. Holding onto bets till they see if it goes onside. Outright refusing to take any bets where they are best price of all the providers.

They are a pathetic excuse for a betting firm.

 

[HappyArber]

nutter - have you contated them directly to find out what was oging on?

if they only took bets that went onside then they wouldn't last very long cos no one would get invovled. sounds like sour grapes to me.

i think they're doing alright for a new company - since i've been signed up they've got noticably quicker at accepting/rejecting. they seem to be learning from what people are saying - quicker than BB in the early dayts. the only criticism i have is that the exposure limit was low to start with but that has come up a bit recentlyl.

 

[Bintrader]

It's strange that some peeps think they are okay. I've taken out most of my money and rarely even look at their prices because 9 or of ten bets are rejected. I did call them and they said that on some bets they manually check for arbs with other firms as "arbs are difficult for us to handle". Maybe peeps who have won a lot get special treatment, it certainly feels that way. I have never had a bet accepted in under 15 seconds.

nutter - have you contated them directly to find out what was oging on?

if they only took bets that went onside then they wouldn't last very long cos no one would get invovled. sounds like sour grapes to me.

i think they're doing alright for a new company - since i've been signed up they've got noticably quicker at accepting/rejecting. they seem to be learning from what people are saying - quicker than BB in the early dayts. the only criticism i have is that the exposure limit was low to start with but that has come up a bit recentlyl.

 

[HappyArber]

It's strange that some peeps think they are okay. I've taken out most of my money and rarely even look at their prices because 9 or of ten bets are rejected. I did call them and they said that on some bets they manually check for arbs with other firms as "arbs are difficult for us to handle". Maybe peeps who have won a lot get special treatment, it certainly feels that way. I have never had a bet accepted in under 15 seconds.

i'm just going on my experience. the way i see it, the house has the edge so on average they will be up and they don't need to pick on particular punters.the art is to be one of the ones who gets it right more often than not.

as far as i can see, all of thse complaints can be levelled against all the competition as well. so you have to make a desicion on price and useability fo the site.

I think the CO site is easiest to use, if a bit 'homely'. the prices seem good to. i think they've come a long way in a short time but there are obviously areas for improvement.

what i don't uinderstand is why everyone is so crazy about Bet on markets - you have to show your hand beofer they give you a rpice!!! it is insane - they take a look at what you;ve got, see what they can pick it up in the market for and then foist int on you for a greatly inflated price. absurd.

 

[NotQuiteRandom]

HappyArber. BOM's prices are pretty tight in my experience. Their service is strong, they offer a good range of bets and they NEVER reject you. I think that the proof of their strength lies in their having been around for so long.

I have a lot of respect for their ability to offer such a flexible product at prices so close to fair value.

Still, you just carry on doing what you do here.

 

[nutter punter]

nutter - have you contated them directly to find out what was oging on?

if they only took bets that went onside then they wouldn't last very long cos no one would get invovled. sounds like sour grapes to me.

i think they're doing alright for a new company - since i've been signed up they've got noticably quicker at accepting/rejecting. they seem to be learning from what people are saying - quicker than BB in the early dayts. the only criticism i have is that the exposure limit was low to start with but that has come up a bit recentlyl.

Of course I have contacted them and their response was 'we think you are an arber and as a result will limit you to 1 lots'. When I explained I just took the best price in the market they guffawed and admitted that was a natural response but they would still limit me.

So they are basically **** and if you get trades on with them it is because you are taking a **** price.


Happy arber my impression is that since you are not getting rejected you must be one of those mugs that all these firms love. Feel free to keep on giving them free money you retard.

 

[NotQuiteRandom]

While understanding that you may feel irritated with your bookie and not agree with someone on the forum I think it is a little strong to refer to them as a 'retard'. Probably best to keep things objective.

Just my 2c.

NQR

 

[HappyArber]

Of course I have contacted them and their response was 'we think you are an arber and as a result will limit you to 1 lots'. When I explained I just took the best price in the market they guffawed and admitted that was a natural response but they would still limit me.

So they are basically **** and if you get trades on with them it is because you are taking a **** price.


Happy arber my impression is that since you are not getting rejected you must be one of those mugs that all these firms love. Feel free to keep on giving them free money you retard.

I'm up (on all my accounts) and I don't have a rejection problem and have never been banned. I;ve been doing it for a few years and I'm free to keep on making money.

The real 'tards are those people who are so greedy that they make money for two days and get themselves barred. Then the only chance they have to vent their impotent rage is to whinge like a loser on forums. Some of them have the nerve to call themselves 'Traders' when they couldn't trade themselves out of a paper bag. Sound like anyone you know?

 

[nutter punter]

I'm up (on all my accounts) and I don't have a rejection problem and have never been banned. I;ve been doing it for a few years and I'm free to keep on making money.

The real 'tards are those people who are so greedy that they make money for two days and get themselves barred. Then the only chance they have to vent their impotent rage is to whinge like a loser on forums. Some of them have the nerve to call themselves 'Traders' when they couldn't trade themselves out of a paper bag. Sound like anyone you know?

Making money or making pennies?

As for how you have made money out of them for years is quite impressive since they have been going a matter of months. Oh you mean other companies. ...............we have all been making tens of thousands(150k a year) out of other firms for years and thats why some of us do this full time.

So stop bleating on about Choiceodds being good ..................... and only let people continue with them if they are making pennies or taking some shocking prices.

 

[barjon]

er, calm down chaps - remember our guidelines

 

[oriana]

Happy Arber,
Which firms do you use to arb, and how much do you stake per point? I did this a few years back with sports spreadbetting firms, but never tried the financials because the prices change so fast. After pocketing about £2000 was stopped by most of the sports firms.

 

[HappyArber]

all the binary providers and as much as i can get on. I find arbing too time consuming now tho so I make most of my money by looking for value and/or taking a view.

I am starting to get rather good at charting (daily movements) but generally I trade based on macro-economic news and views. I'm not interested in how individual stocks are going to do - again too time consuming, as I have a real job too.

 

[HappyArber]

hmm - what's the price that lennonac was down when he wrote those comments. I'd buy at 92-95.

As far as i can see, fixed odds/binary financial is always going to come with some rejections cos it moves so quickly. People who lose tend to exaggerate or go a bit menty (see bindipper's earlier comments).

I'm not surprised that poeople get so indignant tho - it just shows they haven;t learnt to play the game. if you stay cool calm and calculating and have a decent strategy, you can defo make money.

 

[NotQuiteRandom]

Hi Bunny,

I don't buy the arb story. Like you I'm sure, I've seen it a lot on here and I don't see why firms would care about people arbing between them.

For example, lets say ChoiceOdds offer a bet for sale at 10 and BetsForTraders offer it to buy at 9 and you make a risk free 1.

Who wins? Obviously the arber, but think about it, so do the bookies. They each get volume at the prices they quoted and are not being arbed because they are different companies. If the same company let you buy and sell at an arb they clearly would lose but on the basis that the prices quoted by the financial bookies are the price they want to deal at, why should they bother checking for arbs. It doesn't add up to me.

I may be wrong here but this is how I see it... am I missing something?

Thanks,

NQR

 

[bunny6128]

hi

I agree with you, i can't see why it would be a problem for them but i noted in bintraders comment "I did call them and they said that on some bets they manually check for arbs with other firms as "arbs are difficult for us to handle". "

maybe you know why they would say they are difficult to handle? would be funny if their dealers had accounts with other firms and used them to hedge everything.