Can't do anything right.

brewski1984

Senior member
2,035 348
Is it just me that's going through a really bad patch? Every single thing I do at the moment is wrong. I've had 1 breakeven, 1 small win and 8 losses in my last 10 trades this year. On more than one occasion I've basically bought the days high or sold the days low. I've been up and down in the same market getting busted out both ways repeatedly.

Time to give it a break for a while?
 

Lord Flasheart

Legendary member
9,796 975
Is it just me that's going through a really bad patch? Every single thing I do at the moment is wrong. I've had 1 breakeven, 1 small win and 8 losses in my last 10 trades this year. On more than one occasion I've basically bought the days high or sold the days low. I've been up and down in the same market getting busted out both ways repeatedly.

Time to give it a break for a while?
Hmmm possibly but you really need to analyse and be honest with yourself. Were you just pissing in the wind with those trades,chasing,breaking the rules,just risking a couple of hundred more etc. Be honest, does this happen every time things go wrong? do you then take a break and come back more determined and then go through the same cycle again. We are creatures of habit so it becomes hard to break.Sadly Ive been there many times.

Could just be a bad run,we all have them,but only you know the truth. If it was a bad run then fair enough,pick yourself up and of you go. If history is repeating itself then thats different.
 
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The Leopard

Experienced member
1,877 1,020
It's going to happen, get used to it.

This is unlikely to be the last time you go through it either.

Try reading Reminiscences - you'll look at things very differently when you've finished.
 
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brewski1984

Senior member
2,035 348
Yeah thanks Leopard, I have read Reminiscences a few times and every time I do I find another reason why it's a great book.

I think there's a little truth in your post Flash, I am going to take the rest of the week to work out where I am. It's these times that seperate the winners from the losers.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,449 1,008
I would be asking myself if I followed every rule in the system to the letter: if not go back to following the rules. But if they were all respected, that's a more difficult problem - but there's nothing to be gained by sitting out: just make sure your position size is within tolerance. Check -
have they been proven good under a wide range of actual market conditions?
so, is this just an unlucky bad streak?

Even on such a bad result, it's probably an unusually unlucky streak. Unusual, but statistically probable eventually.
 

wackypete2

Legendary member
10,214 2,048
Is it just me that's going through a really bad patch? Every single thing I do at the moment is wrong. I've had 1 breakeven, 1 small win and 8 losses in my last 10 trades this year. On more than one occasion I've basically bought the days high or sold the days low. I've been up and down in the same market getting busted out both ways repeatedly.

Time to give it a break for a while?
Everyone goes through bad spells even longtime traders. It happens. Just make sure you are following your rules properly and use good money management. Maybe scale back on how many lots/contracts you trade until you get through it.

Peter
 

Jack o'Clubs

Experienced member
1,554 342
Just make sure you are following your rules properly and use good money management.
Petr
But what if they're the wrong rules? That's quite possible too. My scariest and most important lesson as a day trader was early on when I realised after a long winning streak that all I'd done was to be long beta in a trending market, and I wasn't a trading god after all. Would have been very expensive had I just carried on applying my rules through a choppy market. If the OP has lost confidence then better he takes some time out to reassess IMO.
 

wackypete2

Legendary member
10,214 2,048
But what if they're the wrong rules? That's quite possible too. My scariest and most important lesson as a day trader was early on when I realised after a long winning streak that all I'd done was to be long beta in a trending market, and I wasn't a trading god after all. Would have been very expensive had I just carried on applying my rules through a choppy market. If the OP has lost confidence then better he takes some time out to reassess IMO.
Yes, good point and very true. However if you haven't followed your rules properly in the first place you wouldn't know if your trading methods contributed to the problem or not.

Peter
 

wallstreetwarrior87

Experienced member
1,882 354
Is it just me that's going through a really bad patch? Every single thing I do at the moment is wrong. I've had 1 breakeven, 1 small win and 8 losses in my last 10 trades this year. On more than one occasion I've basically bought the days high or sold the days low. I've been up and down in the same market getting busted out both ways repeatedly.

Time to give it a break for a while?
Can you put your trades up on the board?

To help one would need to see your entry point, your stop level, and your target for each trade.

If you can do this then you may get a better response, and possibly get the feedback/pointers you are looking for.

Over to you!
 

ZEN archer

Experienced member
1,528 240
Time to give it a break for a while?


That's a good idea - take time off and forget about the markets.

Once you come back you'll be thinking more clearly.
 

The Leopard

Experienced member
1,877 1,020
What's your win rate? You can do a model showing the probability of x losses in row for a given strike rate.

In fact, you should do it. The result will likely be enlightening and terrifying.
 

shadowninja

Legendary member
5,524 643
It's possible that your strategy only suits a particular market characteristic and it changed temporarily (how long is the issue). I would look at identifying when your system works and when it's not very good, then try to figure out how to identify suitable conditions. The alternative is to just accept drawdowns but I prefer to figure out why something that did work is now not working than hope the drawdown period is short.
 

DionysusToast

Legendary member
5,963 1,498
Yeah thanks Leopard, I have read Reminiscences a few times and every time I do I find another reason why it's a great book.

I think there's a little truth in your post Flash, I am going to take the rest of the week to work out where I am. It's these times that seperate the winners from the losers.
I'm gonna give you a better book to read...

Try Humphrey B Neill - Tape Reading & Market Tactics. It was written in 1931.

You did mention buying the tops & selling the bottoms. This book gives a very good explanation of why you are doing this and why the market is engineered to get people trapped in such positions.

It's not a work of fiction like the Lefevre book, it's a book mostly on price action as well as volume. It's not really a book on Tape Reading in the sense that a modern day scalper would use it - more in the sense that they the ticker tape was what they had to base their trades off. He was a swing trader mostly.

The key points in this book are how larger players build and distribute positions in stocks and the extent to which this involves suckering people in. If you are buying tops, then you are being suckered in...
 

DionysusToast

Legendary member
5,963 1,498
BTW - You might want to ignore the "Nigger in the woodpile" comment on page 80.

I nearly fell off the step machine when I read that.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,449 1,008
A bad run like this, assuming your trades are based on a rational strategy that has a good track record in the past, raises the question of why the strategy ceased working. When I have floated this question in the past, it is rare that a change in market conditions visible on the charts is pointed to as the cause. Even with hindsight, there is ususally nothing on the charts to show why Strategy X ceased working for a period (unless you're using something simplistic like MA crossovers or RSI extremes).

This suggests that system dry periods will occur sooner or later but on a random basis. Knowing this, surely, the rational trader should have a small battery of stategies, say 3, running in parallel at all times, so that when one is running dry and needs to be scaled back, the others continue to raise revenue. A diverse portfolio model. Or is it better to have 2 strategies in reserve ready to go in when the front line strategy is running dry? Sort of like crop rotation if you remember that from school days.
 

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