Cable direction via pattern formations

[wasp]

This is a seperate thread for cable movements using pattern formations alone.

I have nothing to sell or prove and consequently have no use for making live calls. This thread is purely for speculation, discussion and thoughts on trading various types of patterns and their effectiveness in trading forex, mainly cable.

Any thoughts, ideas and opinions welcome (charts appreciated)

Chris

 

[wasp]

Next few days.......

Current viewoint....

The forth bounce off TR2 signals support again and therefore a move up to TR3. If it does make it up to TR3 I think it has a high chance of moving up through it heading on up to TR4 thereafter. An actual target would be in the 1.7660 region.

If, of course, it reverses and breaks down through TR2 I think we can see the opposite (obviously!) and see it dropping down to 1.7200.

The targets are based upon the open point of the triangle (A+B) formed via TR2 and TR3 with a 185 pip difference from high to low.

Chris

 

[nextgen]

fair enough, but how to position trade? use limit order after break trend line? how to avoide fake move? SL?

 

[wasp]

Personally, I look for a confirmation of either bounce or break through of the pattern trendline and place a stop at a comfortable risk % position above/below the aforementioned signal.

 

[philhackett]

Use the 3 x 13 x 34 EMA system posted elsewhere on T2W. EMA 34 shows the trend i.e. if it is horizontal stand aside. If it slopes up, trade up. If it slopes down trade down. Use CCI but change the inputs to match the phases of cable i.e. find two tops and two bottoms. Count the candles from the first top (or bottom) down up down up and divide the number of candles by three. You will usually get a figure of 9 or ten. Change the CCI inputs to this and you will have spot on crossovers to trade. If you have Schaff Trend and Trend RSI overlay-ed, change the inputs to; TC1 8-MA1 21-MA2 34 and you will have a superb reliable and profitable scalping set up.

Phil

This is a seperate thread for cable movements using pattern formations alone.

I have nothing to sell or prove and consequently have no use for making live calls. This thread is purely for speculation, discussion and thoughts on trading various types of patterns and their effectiveness in trading forex, mainly cable.

Any thoughts, ideas and opinions welcome (charts appreciated)

Chris

 

[wasp]

Thanks for that PhilHackett,

I know of many indicator combinations with numerous different approaches, of which some are suucessful, but wanted to run a thread based purely on price and patterns alone,

Chris

 

[TheBramble]

find two tops and two bottoms. Count the candles from the first top (or bottom) down up down up and divide the number of candles by three.

Phil, I don't know if you realise just how close what you've just described is to effectively mechanising what some GANN followers effectively do for their calculations.

I'm not a big fan of Gann as it seems you end up with so many lines, you're bound to get a fit somewhere, but there are some fundamentals within his system which I find very useful.

I'm not massively into indicators either - not at all actually.

But I just found your approach, using dynamic market behaviour to modify and tailor your indicator settings, rather than just sitting with the same old setup and wondering why it doesn't work sometimes (trending/ranging), unusual, useful and very intelligent. I don't mean that in any way to sound patronising. Just being honest. Good stuff.

edit: Sorry ChrisW. Posted my reply to PH before reading your follow-up. Didn't realise you didn't want to be discussing inds in this thread. I'll let my post stand though unless you're massively enraged...

 

[wasp]

No problems Tony , the 'Live cable trading' thread covers all the other angles so I'd like to try to keep this one purely price and patterns from here on in....


Well, the bounce of TR2 worked out well and it looks like, unless anything overtly exciting happens throughout the night, a bit of consolidation and then a northerly move in the morning to TR3.

As, when and if, the price hits TR3, a breakthrough should head the market up, up and away towards the 1.7600 region, if not, a drop back down to the TR2 line and then a possible breakdown towards 1.7200....

Tomorrow should decifer which direction the market will take.... it'll also be make or break for whether the pattern really meant anything at all :cheesy:

Chris

 

[wasp]

break or fake?

Depending on how you perceive the triangle formation, depends on the direction it should go next....

Symmetrical triangle in a downtrend = bearish
Rising wedge in a downtrend = bearish
Ascending triangle - bullish

At the moment its spiked up through TR3 and is looking like it may have been a false break up and if it doesn't head north in the next hour or so, it looks like it could be another bounce of the TR3 line and down we'll go.

Only time will tell and until a confident break with a close above or a pull back to the TR line, whichever way it may go, will cement the overall direction of the current trend.... in theory!

Chris

 

[darktone]

hi chris

This is my current view and last trade. Not so much patterns as price action.

Stopped flat near the top of the range (not enough momentum to carry it clear after moving my stop to BE. stop was moved due to price action). If it keeps on trucking and properly breaks the previos weekly high (say 525 minimum) ill look for another entry. Think there is enough fuel in the tank for 800 ..but.. only the market 'knows' where its going .

GL with yours

 

[wasp]

Mornin Darktone,

I saw the pattern on the weekly chart too but its a bit too larger timeframe for my usual analysis, but, it's always good to have a broader picture of the direction.

The spike up through TR3 confirmed IMO the breakout from the existing triangle and from that point of view I agree in the LT view of a bullish market. I suspect a pullback down to the TR3 region again before heading north further. If it does so I'd definately be looking for a good 150+ move north.

On the other hand, it doesn't look like retracing much now so I'd be with you on an entry in the near future if it keeps strong.

 

[wasp]

Where will it go, where will it stop...

TGT A = Rising trend channel

TGT B = Opening section of triangle

Which will it be? I personally favour the 2nd Target but only time will tell!

 

[wasp]

Still viewing this bullish.

After the break up through the triangle it looks like we could have a channel running downwards slightly, or maybe a descending triangle. Eventually we should have a break through to the upside and carry on to finsh the triangle breakout formation.

 

[JER08]

Hi ChrisW

Just my humble opinion.

If cable don't go through 7570 region today and consolidates then 7440 region may be a good place to long, so long as 7370 holds.

I've gone long 7475.

Your last trade was impressive.

 

[darktone]

Still viewing this bullish.

yep.. i agreed. just waiting for an entry. next week most probably.

a break down through 7375 would change my view

 

[Ambassador]

I think there will be a route 7515 - 7420. Probably 7385

EUR 1915-1840. Probably 1780

 

[wasp]

The current benefit of hindsight...

There seems to be two possible chart patterns I can see emerging for next week, deneding obviously on the rest of today.

Option 1:

The price has now dropped and hit the original trendline of the triangle it broke through yesterday so thus, it should either bounce around this region for a while or head north soon. I pay little attention to the news and as this thread is based around patterns, I have no idea when it should go, if it does, but either this afternoon or Monday next week in theory.

Option 2:

The price topped out at 1.7545 before retracting and offering, as shown a second larger triangle, which, could cause numerous options.... a drop down the trendline around the 1.7415 region and either a break through South or a bounce and North.

Personally, I'm going to watch and see where we sit Monday morning as its still dropping now and the target from the first triangle wasn't even hinted near to, let alone hit which dampens faith in patter targets per se.

Chris

 

[TheBramble]

Not so sure. TradeSmart also (over on the Cable thread) seems to favour a roughly Northerly direction too, but...

The Daily is looking Bullish true, but a very muted Bullish.

There are more 'levels' to the upside which are just crying to be 'taken out'. Also true.

And on the very long term charts we do have higher highs and higher lows (since Nov 05). All very true.

It's just that if we really were Northward-bound, by now, using Fib Time and Price, we 'should' be somewhere in the 7683 region. We're not. Now I know this stuff ain't 'real', but it's taking a lot longer on the reversal of Feb 14 (Dailies) to make any convincing headway.

I know I've listed more Bullish than Bearish characteristics, and consensus on these boards is Bullish, which makes my lack of willingness to give that any bias doubly worrying.

I'm keeping my options open ( ) and I'll trade what happens. I really have no directional bias in spite of the fact that, under normal circumstances, I would have expected like you guys to have had expectations of higher probability for a general Bullish move.

 

[darktone]

Not so sure. TradeSmart also (over on the Cable thread) seems to favour a roughly Northerly direction too, but...

The Daily is looking Bullish true, but a very muted Bullish.

There are more 'levels' to the upside which are just crying to be 'taken out'. Also true.

And on the very long term charts we do have higher highs and higher lows (since Nov 05). All very true.

It's just that if we really were Northward-bound, by now, using Fib Time and Price, we 'should' be somewhere in the 7683 region. We're not. Now I know this stuff ain't 'real', but it's taking a lot longer on the reversal of Feb 14 (Dailies) to make any convincing headway.

I know I've listed more Bullish than Bearish characteristics, and consensus on these boards is Bullish, which makes my lack of willingness to give that any bias doubly worrying.

I'm keeping my options open ( ) and I'll trade what happens. I really have no directional bias in spite of the fact that, under normal circumstances, I would have expected like you guys to have had expectations of higher probability for a general Bullish move.

yeah has been kinda sluggish.... but its hard enough to tell where its gona go...without thinking about where 'and' how long! through 650 would be nice! still think there is fuel enough for 900+ but we see how long the smalls hit that sell button button for!

SELL SELL SELL!! :cheesy:

 

[darktone]

looks as though the beat may well have changed.. anaemic price action over the last couple of weeks! 7430 has been properly taken out! 7370 major support will be interesting but it looks heavy to me..

not actively looking for a position as yet.. wait and see time.