byebye ftse byebye?

This was on with a similar link on the US site for the NAS.

Posted by: jim10010
Posted on: 3rd May 2001 1:36:00

If you aren't short already, get in on any strength, cuz here we go

Internal strength turned yesterday, momentum turned today. The FTSE is on the path to destruction, a close below 5730 will confirm this . take shorts and go on 6 week vacation, 4300 is on its way. This last 5995 might as well have been Nasdaq on Sept 1 2000. good bye FTSE goodbye.

If we sound like pricks here, it is because we are. we are upset because we have no way of playing this, and it seems so glaringly obvious.

S/t stochastics has confirmed the reversal, bye bye

Int stochastics has turned bye bye

Sounds like today was down on crushing volume, bye bye

Internal strength turned 2 days ago, bye bye.

4300 minimum target, and we will be there by mid JULY at the latest.


A lot hangs on todays payroll data from the US due at 1330 BST.

Sell-off or rally ?

My money's on a sell-off, but have got a few wrong recently.
Not sure why you posted this Darth but my personal message to jim10010 is :-
When you grow up and emerge from your pitiful mutant state you will realise that people like me get wealthier by ignoring the rantings of morons like yourself.
Stick to what you know best....POVERTY and M*******n
Sounds like you are bullish?

I suspect that we must overcome some major resistance lines on most of indicces (ftse 6000, nas, 2200, dow, 11000) before I join you.

Good luck.
What a sad,sad person........perhaps a better constructed argument may have been better received by those for whom it was intended.
I for one, am grateful that we have never had to suffer peolple like JIM posting to this BB.
Apart from anything else, he's wrong :)
See my post later on the DOW breaking 10,900 on route to 11,100
Darth, i am bullish with a small 'b'. I take my chances as and when the opportunity arises. In a perverse way i should thank jim and the army of derampers. Anyone following Logica should have known from their own research that the only reason for the recent fall to 750ish was a consequence of deramping for the benefit of shorters and smart money. The subsequent 25% rise was inevitable.
I blundered on Psion because of the fear of shorting but, thanks to Riz and Martin, i took a second look and was very fortunate to be on line when that news broke on Friday morning.
So you can see that its not a question of being bullish but more of cautious optimism.
It is a free country Col but that is not a mandate for committing what should be, and i think is, illegal manipulation of the markets.


ps i'm surprised at the censoring of m*********n, i really wanted to say w****r
Shelman, I edited your post in the name of decency. We probably all agree with your sentiments ( I certainly do!)and expressions and this is a free world, but this bb is read by a number of women, and as such I felt that your words needed a slight alteration.
Hope you didn't mind.
Certainly not

Hope you're getting your fair share of the market and not letting Riz have it all.
Yes, I clocked a nice earner on the DOW Friday.Took 160 points out of it. I think the time is right to jump on PON too. Your's and Rizz's comments are well recieved by myself, and ,no doubt lots of others.I'm not yet back to my pioneering ways like you and Rizz, but I feel something stirring in my bones.:)

This is getting better and better...well done your comments on Dow both here and in t2w certainly deserved a nice gain after all that valuable work...well here is to more then :)

Thanks for that Riz. I just love it when a plan comes together. I read some comments from "respected traders" in the US who said Friday was going to be a big down day.Guess they had a shock.I have to admit, when I saw the big tank on open I began to think I had got it 100% wrong...and was about to make a major fool of myself. And yes I do get it wrong, more often than I would like.But the more I looked at that DOW intraday chart, the more convinced I became that I was right.I re-checked my TA on the DOW, in light of the move Friday, and I am still 100% convinced the correct target is 11,400.I have arrived at this figure by two different methods- one using Head and Shouders analysis, the other using Bull Triange breakout.All I would say is that within the bounds of error, I put a range on it of 11,300 to 11,550. That is just ONE day's intra-day movement.
nice to see this thread is being based on the rational. There are always two sides to a debate.

The sunday times has a two-sided perspective from a couple of experts. I've cut and pasted it below - I remain a cautious for the future as much as I'd like to be optimistic it's not clear to me that the 'R' word has gone away.


Experts disagree about the state of the economy. Who is right and where should you invest? By Nick Gardner

Investment tips for bulls
and bears

Tips if the worst is over | If the worst is still to come
RECESSION or no recession? The question is still dividing the country's leading economists, leaving investors in a quandary.

If we are heading for a recession, or something close to it, then it will have a big impact on which investments to choose. But if we are likely to escape, then investors would be well advised to head out of cash and bonds - a traditional safe haven during troubled times - and back into equities.

The decision hinges on exactly where we are in the economic cycle. Novice investors often wonder how the economic and investment cycles work, because the professionals base most of their decisions on this remarkably consistent chain of events.

Many experts say the cycle has shifted away from the extreme boom-and-bust pattern, but it still operates in roughly the same way. Economies prosper, with strong growth that inevitably gets ahead of itself, so they have to slow before they pick up again.

This usually leads professional investors to rotate their investments into so called "cyclical" stocks when earnings begin to improve after a slowdown. Then they move into commodities as economic growth gathers pace, leading to more demand for raw materials, then into cash as the economy slows, before retreating into the safety of government bonds when experts fear a recession.

Bonds have performed well during the past year as investors have sought this safe haven, but many are now venturing out of bonds and tentatively back into equities, usually into defensive stocks such as utilities, pharmaceuticals and food retailers, which tend to do well whatever the market conditions.

But this cycle is not like previous ones. It has not followed normal patterns, thanks largely to the extraordinary bubble created by technology stocks.

Now, experts are divided on just how dramatically the economy is going to slow down - and whether it will be dramatic enough to plunge the world into recession.

So where are we in the investment cycle today? Opinions differ once again, with some saying the time is right to dive aggressively back into technology shares, which should rebound on any good earnings news, while others think it is safer to stay in cash or high yielding, defensive stocks until the outlook is clearer.

However, there are investment strategies that can benefit from either eventuality.

Which one you choose depends on how much risk you are prepared to take. Given that the finest economic and stock-picking minds in the country are so deeply divided, either route is a gamble.

Even staying in cash is effectively a risk, since investors could lose out on the bulk of a market rally. But here are the two main scenarios and investment options.

Prepare for worst

Some indicators suggest Britain's economy is in worse shape than previously thought.

The number of profit warnings issued in the first quarter of this year was 136 - 11 more than in the fourth quarter of 1998, when the world was also fearing global recession.

In addition, the recent market rally does not appear to have taken widely expected earnings downgrades into account. British exports to America, for example, have dropped by 20%, but the information has not affected share prices. Also, yields on corporate bonds have been rising to reflect the increased risk of companies defaulting on their debts.

In other words, much of today's evidence would suggest that we are approaching a recession in Britain, even if we are some months away from it.

As a result, many investors will want to adopt a safety-first attitude, especially those stung by the technology crash and those in need of a decent income stream. These people should either stay in cash to avoid another drop in share prices - something that many experts believe is on the cards - or move into defensive stocks. Many of these are paying high yields, and tend to outperform the market in times of trouble.

Richard Crehan of Morgan Stanley, suggests those who are already in cash should stay there. He says: "Economic growth is positive but slowing. There is a lot of bad news to come in terms of earnings growth and profit warnings, but the market, at nearly 6,000, has not priced this in yet."

Crehan thinks the market will fall back again before starting a full recovery, but that defensive shares will suffer less than most, and that their yields could make up for any drop in prices.

The problem for those wanting to stay in cash is that returns are falling, and even the best savings accounts typically pay only 2% or 3% once inflation and tax are taken into account.

Being bullish

Peter Oppenheimer, chief investment strategist at HSBC, disagrees with Crehan and says we are further into the cycle than he suggests - roughly at the cross-over point between bonds and equities - although most private investors are in cash rather than bonds.

He believes America will enter recession but that Britain will avoid it. As a result, he says British investors should return to the market. If they believe, as he does, that this will be a typically cyclical recovery, then stocks that are sensitive to changes in economic conditions are the ones to go for. He says: "We turned bullish on equities at the end of March. We think cyclical stocks - those most sensitive to an upturn in the economy - are a good bet, and tech shares have been the most cyclical of all."

This effectively means that the slowdown in business and consumer spending on technology, which was extremely marked in the first quarter of this year, and also on telecoms, will reverse, and earnings for these companies will begin to improve, prompting a surge in their share prices.

Autonomy, for example, had 15 contracts deferred earlier this year, but half have now been signed and the other half have made assurances that they will not cancel their orders.

Similarly, Marconi, Sage, Vodafone and Baltimore, which have all seen share prices decimated, are at the upper-end of their businesses and could be among the first to benefit from a change in sentiment.

Several other factors have affected HSBC's change of mood. One interesting indicator is that March saw the biggest net outflows of American mutual funds - the equivalent of unit trusts - since the crash of 1987, and traditionally the biggest outflows from retail funds occur about a month before an upturn in equity performance.

What happens in America has a big influence on Britain - it is virtually unheard of for the American market to rise and the British market to fall, as they usually work in tandem.

As a rule, equities on both sides of the Atlantic reach a trough approximately six months before the end of a recession.

While neither Britain nor America has technically entered recession, America has effectively been enduring a "profit recession", and Britain is perhaps a little behind America. The UK is suffering a marked slowdown in economic growth, with profit margins squeezed by increased competition. Investors should also bear in mind that leaving stock-market investment too late can be expensive. Oppenheimer says the rise in the first six months after a bear market accounts for about 50% of the total returns for the next three years.

A final word of warning: many technology shares enjoyed a good run in April and remain expensive on any conventional valuation. Venturing back into these stocks is not a move for the faint-hearted. But experts say that they will be the most sensitive to any positive news on economic growth and earnings.

Perhaps the most sensible advice for the time being, however, is to retain a defensive stance. If the finest minds in the country disagree, it probably makes sense to sit on the fence.

Defence or attack?

Traditional defensive shares like those in water or power companies are a good bet in uncertain times. But aggressive investors prepared to take a gamble on an economic upturn could make a killing in technology or telecom shares, which could be among the first to benefit if we avoid recession.
I am surprised at how quickly sentiment has changed. Just a couple of months ago we were all talking about a market crash and what effect the world recession would have on us all, and now we're enjoying a rally that I have missed out on because I don't trust the markets or what the so-called experts say about them. What I can't understand is what has changed? My understanding was that the US was heading for a major recession and thousands were losing their jobs. This would mean less spending by the americans, including less spending on shares and people cashing in their shares sending the stockmarkets even lower. This would have a knock-on effect on us here in the UK, sending us lower also. Maybe i'm missing something very obvious and maybe I have missed something major which has caused the tide to turn (quite possible as I don't have time to check the markets daily). If someone could please explain what has changed I would be very grateful. Thanks

Marty , I'm in the dark the same as you. Just what has changed?
All I can assume, in my simplistic view, is that the "players" could no longer drive prices any lower.The move on the dow over the last few weeks ( from early March until now) has been down 1500 then up 1500. The dip in September was down 1300 then up 900 or so.
In terms of Fibonacci retracement, we have already passed the 62% up point.
Even going back to the begining of 2000, The dow had a very swift recovery to beyond 62% retracement, finally basing itself around the 38% mark for 5 months.
Strangely enough, since Jan 2000, the DOW has a trading range of 38% to 62% of the peak (11,700) and the trough (9,800).

you echo my sentiments entirely. Everytime the fed cut's interest rates the rules of the game change and market rallies. However the threat of recession seems to be just as near as ever.

I too would like to understand what has happened in the last few weeks to change things.
Well, for a combination of reasons, I have also sat out on most of this rally - the main one being that I cannot trust things at present, as I cannot give full attention to things with my studies (though as I passed the first exam that I failed 4 months ago, I hope that in 2 weeks it will ALL be over!!!)

I think the downtrend is broken, but whether there will be a flat or a V-shaped bottom, I don't know. I think many stocks having rallied, are too expensive right now, and am waiting to buy on the dips.

I remain concerned about the 3-week rally in JAN, followed by the devastating declines.....I hope history does not repeat itself.....
No, you haven't missed anything. Opinion is still very much divided as to where the US is heading. There is still much uncertainty and nervousness. Witness the daily gyrations of the markets. There has been some positive news, but it does not signal the dawing of a new age. Still more adverse economic news to come in my view. We're still in woods, with bears lurking about. But, things certainly don't point to a meltdown. But you never know. How's that for sitting on the fence?
I made my feelings clear at the end March, about the right stocks being at the right price for longer term investment. I am now 85% cash having realised an average 11% profit. apart from PON i sold too soon in every case, ARM being the worst.
The reason for selling... every rally must come to an end but unless something happens soon i'm going to feel very foolish. Maybe thats why THEY called it the 'fools rally'... heads you lose tails we win.
Where have Jim and all his mates gone?