Best Thread Bund Bobl and Schatz Thread

[Directional]

The Eurostoxx is certainly comparable to trading the emini S&P, except much more liquid. Bund is not dissimilar, but again is significantly more liquid, although the movement of the bund is probably a little bit more steady and trendy. IMO at least.

 

[mckaldey]

Thanks for your comment,

I will have to check how trading these contracts could go together with my rather small account size in regards to short term trading risk management.

Living in Germany I believe that trading these contracts could be very good.
The DAX I believe is a little too much for my account in regardsto tick value and volatility.

The Eurostoxx is certainly comparable to trading the emini S&P, except much more liquid. Bund is not dissimilar, but again is significantly more liquid, although the movement of the bund is probably a little bit more steady and trendy. IMO at least.

 

[Directional]

The DAX I believe is a little too much for my account in regardsto tick value and volatility.

yeah, the Dax is like an enraged Nasdaq on steroids :cheesy:

 

[Directional]

oh, and the bonus aspect of dealing with European markets is that they are usually in Euro's or Sterling, which is much better than a rapidly diminishing dollar tick.

 

[kobeyashi]

Bund..... is significantly more liquid, although the movement of the bund is probably a little bit more steady and trendy. IMO at least.

Hello Arbitrageur,
Interesting to note that you thought that the Bund has steady trends.

I have been trying to develop a trend following system for the bund, and atleast as per the historical data I have acquired from CRB, I have failed rather miserably. The person I report to at work, is of the opinion that such results might be because of the 'large players' using the Bund as a tool for arbitrage/hedging etc. I am getting conflicting analyses from all directions. I'll really appreciate it if perhaps you could elaborate a bit more on your experience with the Bund.

Kind Regards,
Kobeyashi

 

[grantx]

Buy ‘em,

I was watching the 30-yr thinking, ‘I hope to fuuck he closed’. Live to fight another day.

Ingo,

I use highs and lows of 10 to 25 tick charts. On a basic level, if these are broken, I will buy above a high and sell below a low. If a bar fails to breach a previous high/low then I would regard this as a potential turning point – sell a high, buy a low. I don’t use any technical indicators.

Support and resistance on, eg 60-minute and day charts, I use as reference for possibly strong support or resistance; if either of these are broken, I am expecting a particularly strong move.

I also use trend-lines for trend and possible congestion areas.

Re e-minis, although I have no experience of trading this, I would say Bobl and Schatz are not comparable, specifically less volatile. Moreover, Bobl and Schatz are not really comparable – each can be traded in it’s own right (as well as the Bund), at least for scalping. The bund is the most volatile, then the bobl and finally the schatz. This also seems to be the case with US 2, 5, 10 and 30-year bonds; each is unique with the longer maturities being the most volatile.

I agree with Arbitrageur re the Stoxx, especially when compared to the DAX. However, personally I have found it is too volatile and choppy. Indeed, it would be unwise to regard any of the instruments above as a Sunday picnic. Treat them all with caution.

Arbitrageur,

“much better than a rapidly diminishing dollar tick”. Are you nostalgic for $500 per point S&P? Oh to be rich and decadent.

Kobeyashi,

As Dashing Blade of T2W explained to me, there are also a lot of companies and their investors hedging via the bund; the majority of companies issue 10-year bonds because of the ease of hedging via the bund futures. This leads to increased liquidity and volume which leads to more speculators and volume. It becomes almost self-fulfilling.

Grant.

 

[MrGecko]

folks,

as yet there is little of value I can add to this thread; I have traded the regular index futures + options + forex for income, but ceased trading all instruments full time before christmas last year. Fixed income derivs is something i've wanted to explore further for a while, so I am using this opportunity to give it a shot.

In terms of g'ment contracts, I've been concentrating on trading the Schatz from the orderbook (I'm sure you all will understand why, in comparison to Bobl & Bund). However, and I don't mean to take the thread off topic, the eurodollar (and other STIR's) seem much more interesting products to be involved in.

Anyway, I simply mean to re-iterate the hopes of previous posters. I follow this thread with a great deal of interest, and hope I can contribute/share what I am learning with fellow FI newbies.

good trading

**NB re: data packages

Grantx, IIRC you have mentioned (on another thread) the associated fees for CQG + Eurex package. FYI I'm looking for a package that'll let me run Bund/Bobl/Schatz tick charts in addition to Eurodollar spreads - lead contender at the mo is a Tenfore feed with Updata for charts (I use TT w/ velocity as a front end).

 

[Mpoufos]

hi guys. i ll just drop a line cause i find most replies misleading and nonsense. I am trading with a fund doing relatively large volume on a daily basis in bund and bobl futures . the guys i am working with are trading bunds since they started on eurex so inevitably I was taught and saw with my own eyes some pretty good stuff. most of the eurex fixed income is manipulated by a few massive guys trying to create exaggeration moves. whats scary is that they gain a bigger market share each day and taking advantage of market instability. they invest on locals fear trying to create panic and stop people out. the most smart thing said on this thread is to figure out what they are doing and get on their back. and thats it pretty much.

 

[kobeyashi]

Mpoufos, Grantx,

Could I PM you about some queries relating to the Bund? Thanks in advance.

Kobeyashi

 

[Mpoufos]

sure

 

[grantx]

Kobeyashi,

Of course you can

Mpoufus,

"figure out what they are doing".

These has been said elsewhere. The only way I can figure it is go with the large trades (to a point - you don't know if these are opening or closing positions). Given your knowledge and background, maybe you could make a few suggestions.

See the 98,000 lot sale at 8:49 this morning on Schatz? Bund did 163,000 lot, Schatz 172,000 at same time. Couldn't do that volume on DAX.

Grant.

 

[Mpoufos]

i know its been said above grant. i agreed with that comment in the first place. the large trades are misleading. either u believe it or not its crossing on different accounts but from the same trader. they are trying to create a move by showing and trading big clips. these guys have a lot of tools to fool people and by trading large clips is one of them. bying thousands when in reality they are selling. u just have to realise what he is trying to do. the how now depends on ur own skills. and man i dont have a stellar backround or smth dont like to brag about those things i just happened to be lucky to work with some big traders and thats all. i honestly have nothing to gain from this thread just couldnt see people writting about bunds, levels, technicals, tick charts or whatever the call it when they dont have a clue of whats going on in these markets

 

[grantx]

Mpoufos,

What would your traders regard as a large clip? The only ones I see are block trades and they have no affect on the price/order book.

Grant.

 

[buy 'em]

mpoufos

Wow you sound like a sharp guy! Please feel free to give any insight you have on these markets as it is greatly appreciated. I agree with you completely. These contracts are literally manipulated by just a few huge players. The key is trying to find out what they are doing and to do that you have to think completely different than most of the locals trading these markets.

I do have a few questions for you though. How many ticks are these guys you trade with usually looking to make on a given trade (1 tick, 2 tick, 3 tick, etc)? Also are they just using the orderbook to trade off of or do they incorporate charts into the mix? Also could you provide us with any particular orderflow patterns on the orderbook that these guys trade off of during the day? (if you don't want to answer that last question I understand)

Hope everyone had a good trading day and took some money out as you couldn't of asked for a better day to make money!

 

[Mpoufos]

morning guys I dont know what to share and what not as I ve signed a confidentiality contract and here they are really serious about those stuff. grant u are totally wrong bro they are not block trades thats what they want u to think, its probably crossing. dont get me wrong on event driven markets u do have paper like the liquidity injection the day before, but in dead hours its crossing. try to understand that these guys are 70-80% of the book they can do whatever they want to an extent. buy em sry man cant answer that, lets say that they see and understand things without any charts or anything.

 

[buy 'em]

Mpoufos

Thanks Man!

Good Trading Everyone

 

[grantx]

Mpoufos,

OK, if a trade prints but doesn't go through the book, then it is either a block trade or a cross: "thats what they want u to think." To what purpose?

I understand the confidentiality aspect but all we have so far are oblique references to vague notions based on ambiguous innuendo. It’s as clear as that.

“just couldnt see people writting... [who] dont have a clue”. The way this is progressing we’ll all remain in blissful ignorance.

Arbitrageur,

As you recommend M’s posts, maybe you could shed some light?

Grant.

 

[Mpoufos]

grant english is not my first language so pls rephrase ur statement i lost u after mpufos

 

[buy 'em]

mpufos

At least you know another language lol!!! English is all I know. I think what he was trying to say was why do they want you to think that it was crossed or a block trade?

 

[Mpoufos]

ok cool i see. so i ll put an ex. lets say the big guy is long bunds from 118.00. the quantity of the contracts that he is trading is enormous so lets say that this guy has 20000 bunds long. when he reaches the highs most of the offers are probably his so what he does is to try and push the market. so lets say he is offering 1400 at 118.09. he crosses 1200 at 118.09 with the other account making people believe there is paper buying. now if the other locals and big guys get on his back and start clearing offers he is gonna keep crossing some his offers while long covering a bit, until he sees the buying pressure fades out. then everyone thinks o **** that things is going up he stops crossing and covers the rest of his position but in a very smart way so it doesnt show that he is covering. so he might cover 10000 and do another fake try to the upside and cover the rest at t ahigher level