Bull or bear?

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fantastic4

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Just hoping to hear others thoughts. I'm a super bull! Mainly because of the continual bleeding of the VIX, market profile analysis ( which I barely understand) and the fact that so many stocks have taken on or over their fifty day mas.

Of course I'm a newbie, so looking for some info.
 
major bear here for stocks and indexs, see my post dow 2009. bullish commodities for 2009 tho
 
watch out its a bear hes coming for u
go in out in out in out and play round with the bear and ull make munnay
the bear will go up down down up down down down down up down up up down up down
gd luck
 
Volume Equals Conviction

You are correct that after months of failed attempts, the market has finally risen above the 50 Moving Average; however, we are missing one important factor. Volume. Remember, the market moved up during a holiday shortened week. You can even go back to the Thanksgiving move up that was quickly crushed on the Monday following Thanksgiving. As traders return on this upcoming Monday, what type of mood will they be in. We may see many in profit taking mood.

In the end, nobody knows, but I'll be following volume to give me an insight where the sentiment is at.
 
can I be a sitting on the fence getting splinters (and pips) "neither?" Only thing I'll predict is luverly volatility. :cool:
 
Short term alpha Bull (at least the next month or two).....intermediate/long-term big, fat, nasty, hungry, just-woke-up-from-hybernation angry bear with rabies.
 
Answered as a trader..... no opinion whatsoever.

Answered as an investor..... bearish for 2009.
 
Genics said:
out of interest why are people bullish in the short term? i just dont see it
Click to expand...

Because short term trading is full of ups and downs. It has to be like that, or there would not be a market. It's not economics, it is a matter of the bulls trying to figure out when the bears will become attracted again. It happens in all time frames.
 
As has been said above, you'd have to approach this from a long-ball investor's POV... As my interest in this area lies only in commodities, I'd have to sort of half-lean on the fence and the first half of 2009 may differ greatly from the second, or it may not. Essentially there will be a rebound at some point; whether it is the second half of this year or 2010 depends on how quickly the powers that be can stimulate the economy. Personally I lean more towards 2010, I just don't see us stopping the rot in the next 6 months, but people more knowledgable than I have are slightly more optimistic. Anyway here goes...

Crude will hover in Q1 & Q2, due to decreased global demand and the fact that OPEC are happy to support the lower pricing in order to stimulate demand for Q3/Q4. Various analysts have wildly differing forecasts for oil prices in the second half of 2009; OPEC could decide to cut production further or we could see an (IMO unlikely) rebound of manufacturing in the summer; with that in mind we could see a return to three figures a barrel at almost any point in the next 2 years.

With metals, copper and iron ore are obviously affected by the death of manufacturing; I have the feeling it could be 2010 before we see any discernible turnaround here, but as production is reduced by the likes of Rio Tinto and Freeport, the price will likely stabilise later in the year. As more people become more worried in the short term about deflation, gold and silver will likely see a downward blip in deamand. This is obviously a pretty explosive topic at the moment, no-one is really prepared to step forward and predict what is going to happen but if I were a betting man (and I am) I would expect inflation to hit us pretty hard in the coming 18 months.

To summarise, I will be watching the commodities markets very carefully in the coming 3 months, with a view to catching a pretty decent surge in oil and gold prices, with a decent recovery of copper and ore to come in the 12-18 months after that. Of course, I am incredibly experienced and could be laughably wrong; but better to express and opinion and be wrong than merely regurgitate the musings of others (cough-Peston-cough...)

SL
 
fantastic4 said:
Just hoping to hear others thoughts. I'm a super bull! Mainly because of the continual bleeding of the VIX, market profile analysis ( which I barely understand) and the fact that so many stocks have taken on or over their fifty day mas.

Of course I'm a newbie, so looking for some info.
Click to expand...

I'm trying to find the day's high to short.
 
Just re-read my post; I meant to write 'incredibly inexperienced' rather than 'incredibly experienced'...
 
Optimism is gathering pace in the first few days of 2009. Last year saw the S&P500 down 39%, FTSE100 down 32% and the Nikkei 225 down 42%. As individual and corporate spending has collapsed, governments around the world are picking up the slack with massive stimulus packages. The accompanying spin is fuelling hope that the worst will soon be behind us. Factor in the Obama effect and equities look set for a positive first quarter in 2009.

Come April, this hope will collide with reality and equities will come down fast. The current recession comes from a financial crisis that generally last longer than recessions borne from business cycles. This is also an income crisis, not a credit crisis as individuals and companies struggle to earn enough to service their debt. Economic recovery cannot begin until individuals have sufficient cash and confidence to resume spending and that is years away.

If you look at the Nikkei 225 from 1990 to 1992 and NASDAQ comp from 2000 to 2002, both declined nearly 80% from peak to trough, all caused by overburdening debt in a financial crisis. Previous recessions in the US and the UK have never had individuals, corporations and governments all heavily indebted at the same time.

This recession will be longer and tougher than most people think - The Nikkei and NASDAQ experiance suggests that after the FTSE reaches 5,100 in 1Q09, it could touch 1,350 later this year as more corporates and capital based pensions fail.
 
I completely agree that people are underestimating the length of the recession - even the tabloids, who like nothing more than terrorising the public with their tedious 'Broke Britain' banter, are saying that the downturn 'could last as long as 2 years'. Personally I think that should read 'at the very, very least 2 years', and would be expecting us to be feeling the effects of this and last year's events for as much as a decade.

The West's recovery from it's last recession was achieved largely by spending, fueled by debt taken on against rising house values. Now this magical well has dried up, leaving people stranded. Effectively the US and Britain as nations were like one large family who took on a credit card to pay for Christmas, then another card to pay for the first card, and so on, until finally they were refused further credit, leaving them in a big, big hole.

The scary part? It took us six years to completely recover from the last recession. At the end of that recession in 2001, Britain's debt represented 31% of GDP. In 2009, this figure now reads 400%. We have nowhere left to turn but inward. In short; buckle up, things are going to get rough.
 
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Japan is 18 years into recession and the Nikkei 225 is still 77% below the 29 Dec 1989 all time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Index took 25 years to make a new high after the 1929 Wall Street Crash. Use the coming "It'll be alright" rally this spring to trade and get out of red ink positions. Forget about listening to economists and pundits, talk to your friends and family and see how wealthy they feel and whether they are planning to spend with confidence this year - they will give you your answer
 
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