Bear market now ?

[tartar]

After reading some books and poking around, this may be the most important single factor before investing :- The state of of the market.

There's doesn't seems to be any 'very obvious' sites analyzing straight-off for the investors which stage of the overall market we are in now.

Imho, it seems we may be in the 3/4 stage of a bull market OR the market is on 'shaky grounds' now and all it it takes is one downfall to trigger a domino. ( see http://www.stock-market-crash.net/coming-crash.htm)

Which stage of the bull or bear market do you think it's in now?

Is everyone in an euphoric state of bullish buying and 'people of average means become fantastically wealthy, all while barely trying' ?
Perhaps this is a futile question itself because nobody likes to admit that ?

appreciate your thoughts...

 

[Traderuk]

I dont see such things happening until 2008-2010. But it could happen next week, who knows?

 

[fundjunkie]

Of course this is all opinion. However, I wouldn't say that we're all that closely to what would be described a bear market. A healthy market correction, perhaps. But not a bear market. For that to happen company results will need to turn sour and Oil will need to go quite alot higher - but I'm no expert so don't quote me on that.

 

[tartar]

In addition to the housing - credit market debt reaching dizzling heights,
perhaps the oil crisis will be the first in the domino of a stock market crash.
( see http://www.stock-market-crash.net/coming-crash.htm )

Major Factors.

- Peak Oil Price
- Credit Bubble
- Housing Bubble
- Baby Boomers Retirements Cash out.


This can be more serious than i thought.

Are you guys fimilar with the theory of peak oil? Saudi arabia with 25% of the known oil reserves will be hitting peak oil very very soon or at least in the next couple of years. With energy demands rising and the US, china, india consuming more and more crude, once peak oil hits demand will outpace supply and cost per barrel will be much higher than even what we are going to see today. I think the political, social, economic implications will be horrible.

The days of cheap gas to put into our cars has already gone. Here in the US the price is already at 3.00 per gallon. and i dont think it will ever come back down again. I think we are facing a very uncertain future with up coming political upheaval, wars across the world and social unrest.

Kinda of a depressing thought. IS this a doomsday theory? could be...but i dont think so. signs of peak oil is already emerging on the oil markets. and its not just because of production or lack of refineries. thats what they want you to believe.

How will this effect Global markets once oil hits more than $100 a barrell?. How will this effect our everyday lives?

 

[Traderuk]

Yes, but baby boomers retirement will surely notr start for a few yearsd, and it wont cause a one-day crash.