You're using the term "bubble" a lot here. How do you define a "bubble"? What objective, or even subjective, metrics do you use to determine is smth is a "bubble"? Or is it like porn, i.e. you know it when you see it? Why should there necessarily be fears of an "imminent unprecedented stock market crash"? Why such a dramatic outcome?
It's right on the surface: unprecedented stock market growth at record highs while the economy remains troubled and the interest rates are record low.
You could have said exactly the same about the US market in the early 1950s and yet here we are... Moreover, as I have already mentioned, your statement about the economy remaining troubled is not totally convincing.
The rate wasn't this low for so long back then. Matter of fact, it's never been so low for this long in its history.
This is an inaccurate statement. The absence of the historical Fed Funds rate going back to before WWII doesn't mean that interest rates didn't exist back then. If you were to plot t-bill or US treasury rates, for instance, you would see that, prior to the early 50s, they stayed as low for a much longer period. At any rate, I am not saying that you're necessarily wrong here and that a crash or whatever is never coming. However, such a conclusion, to me, is far from obvious.
Would you say the same fear of rate rises now drives the cheap cash loans for stock buybacks?
