You may well be right on dax. I am more looking at the macro picture. I can hold, so it doesn't matter too much if I am wrong. I don't go all in, which leaves my reserves to make corrections when necessary.
To be fair though I haven't done bad. When you consider the amount of trades I've done and the value of them along with all the guaranteed stop premiums, the majority have been the right way and I actually haven't lost that much money (relatively).