B
Black Swan
Not only did he put one over Randolph and Mortimer Montague he wrote one of the most prescient single posts I've read on trading; clear, brief and relevant. The techinque is one issue, however, at the time I found this invaluable in telling you where you're at in relation to the food chain and who does what and why the markets move...
All of the trades posted in the thread by either myself or other members have proved anywhere from +20 to hundreds of pips with the exception of one, so the success rate has been very high thus far. We hope to continue it and educate as we go along. In response to some of the questions I have been getting and through my own diligence here I thought I would write the following, outlining the major methods I use.
Throughout my years of trading, I have been lucky to have had some good experience and have picked up two important things:
1.Trading as a means of steady income is not a painful process if you know what you are doing
2.Trading can be a very painful process if you listen to the wrong information
New traders suffer a severe disadvantage because they do not understand what moves the market and how to react to certain outcomes. When attempting to learn, the overflow of information out there can be both beneficial and disastrous. This article is intended to provide one winning strategy that provides a very high winning percentage rate, uses no indicators, and is simple to learn and follow. It is also intended to provide information regarding market movers and how they generally operate in relation to this strategy, as it is probabilistically the most widely used and followed.
I’m going to outline my own abbreviated trading plan, making it easier to understand through explanations and presenting examples as to how I trade on a long-term and intraday basis.
Before you read on, I encourage you to take a look at a general overview of the interbank market and how it works. It baffles me that such a large portion of retail traders out there have no clue of this structure, and it’s no wonder why so many of them lose money on a regular basis. Deficiency of knowledge in any endeavor is usually going to lead to failure. Understand what you are trading before you trade it, and then move on. You can find one here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../interbank.asp
Banks control the cash. Retail traders such as you or I, as well as major funds play a key part in the movement of the market, but at the end of the day, the banks are the ones putting on multi-million dollar positions which essentially drive the markets. We would like to think we are a bigger part of it, but we’re not.
Working for a major fund and a bank for several years, I realized what a joke a lot of trading really was and how simple it really can be for any novice investor with a willingness to learn. In my shop, we had one dedicated analyst per pair and he or she basically called out the shots to traders on the desk. The trader is responsible for moving the cash while securing profit whenever possible. With virtually no spread, most of the positions would last from a few seconds to several minutes. Many of them would take tiny profits trading countertrend all day long, along with hedging other traders, causing rises and shifting bars as you see on a regular basis.
When an order gets placed that seems larger than life, and chips start to stack on, others usually follow like a herd like sheep. The largest orders are placed in areas of extreme support and resistance, and most of the market makers are fully aware of this fact. Analytics done by the banks usually outline these areas first and foremost, hence it’s the most widely used and followed technique at distinguishing reversal points. Other analytics are used as well, such as diagonal trend lines, pivots, price channels, macd, moving averages, etc., but issues over ambiguity arise with all of them. The technique I’ll describe below uses nothing more than support and resistance, with other methods allowing for possible trend-riding along the way. It’s what the big players do; therefore, it makes sense to be doing it as well.
No strategy is going to be perfect, because on top of everyday speculative trading there are other influences on the foreign exchange market, and it might be difficult to discern when one price level will be more influential than another. As a retail trader following this technique, however, it is fully possible to profit 80 to hundreds of pips in a five hour session, each and every day. Less is more, in this case.
I make about 5 to 10 trades per session, each one fitting into the framework of a high probability. I’ve used this technique over the past 3 years now because it has proven to me to be the most reliable and simple to trade. Others will argue, but while they argue and are looking to short GBP, I’m already closing my trade with 20 pips of profit. They go short, and price bounces back up, and I hope to explain why here.
Areas of support and resistance hold because unlike other methods, anyone trading in any timeframe can look at a chart and see where price has reacted many times in the past, or what will be a “no brainer” in the immediate future. Any level is subject to a breakout on a reaction of news, or other various influences.
It is important at all times to gauge the current market conditions and in good judgment decide whether or not the level should hold or bust. For example, on days of hysteria where the dollar is getting smashed, you’re a lot less likely to make a ton of pips on these levels if they are countertrend. The same can be true for Fridays (stop hunting day), in times of option expiration or at the very end of the month. Regardless, even on these days, it is possible to use this technique to enter trades in the direction of the trend on a retracement to the exact pip, allowing you to take advantage of the madness of the volatility.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2035383&postcount=443
All of the trades posted in the thread by either myself or other members have proved anywhere from +20 to hundreds of pips with the exception of one, so the success rate has been very high thus far. We hope to continue it and educate as we go along. In response to some of the questions I have been getting and through my own diligence here I thought I would write the following, outlining the major methods I use.
Throughout my years of trading, I have been lucky to have had some good experience and have picked up two important things:
1.Trading as a means of steady income is not a painful process if you know what you are doing
2.Trading can be a very painful process if you listen to the wrong information
New traders suffer a severe disadvantage because they do not understand what moves the market and how to react to certain outcomes. When attempting to learn, the overflow of information out there can be both beneficial and disastrous. This article is intended to provide one winning strategy that provides a very high winning percentage rate, uses no indicators, and is simple to learn and follow. It is also intended to provide information regarding market movers and how they generally operate in relation to this strategy, as it is probabilistically the most widely used and followed.
I’m going to outline my own abbreviated trading plan, making it easier to understand through explanations and presenting examples as to how I trade on a long-term and intraday basis.
Before you read on, I encourage you to take a look at a general overview of the interbank market and how it works. It baffles me that such a large portion of retail traders out there have no clue of this structure, and it’s no wonder why so many of them lose money on a regular basis. Deficiency of knowledge in any endeavor is usually going to lead to failure. Understand what you are trading before you trade it, and then move on. You can find one here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../interbank.asp
Banks control the cash. Retail traders such as you or I, as well as major funds play a key part in the movement of the market, but at the end of the day, the banks are the ones putting on multi-million dollar positions which essentially drive the markets. We would like to think we are a bigger part of it, but we’re not.
Working for a major fund and a bank for several years, I realized what a joke a lot of trading really was and how simple it really can be for any novice investor with a willingness to learn. In my shop, we had one dedicated analyst per pair and he or she basically called out the shots to traders on the desk. The trader is responsible for moving the cash while securing profit whenever possible. With virtually no spread, most of the positions would last from a few seconds to several minutes. Many of them would take tiny profits trading countertrend all day long, along with hedging other traders, causing rises and shifting bars as you see on a regular basis.
When an order gets placed that seems larger than life, and chips start to stack on, others usually follow like a herd like sheep. The largest orders are placed in areas of extreme support and resistance, and most of the market makers are fully aware of this fact. Analytics done by the banks usually outline these areas first and foremost, hence it’s the most widely used and followed technique at distinguishing reversal points. Other analytics are used as well, such as diagonal trend lines, pivots, price channels, macd, moving averages, etc., but issues over ambiguity arise with all of them. The technique I’ll describe below uses nothing more than support and resistance, with other methods allowing for possible trend-riding along the way. It’s what the big players do; therefore, it makes sense to be doing it as well.
No strategy is going to be perfect, because on top of everyday speculative trading there are other influences on the foreign exchange market, and it might be difficult to discern when one price level will be more influential than another. As a retail trader following this technique, however, it is fully possible to profit 80 to hundreds of pips in a five hour session, each and every day. Less is more, in this case.
I make about 5 to 10 trades per session, each one fitting into the framework of a high probability. I’ve used this technique over the past 3 years now because it has proven to me to be the most reliable and simple to trade. Others will argue, but while they argue and are looking to short GBP, I’m already closing my trade with 20 pips of profit. They go short, and price bounces back up, and I hope to explain why here.
Areas of support and resistance hold because unlike other methods, anyone trading in any timeframe can look at a chart and see where price has reacted many times in the past, or what will be a “no brainer” in the immediate future. Any level is subject to a breakout on a reaction of news, or other various influences.
It is important at all times to gauge the current market conditions and in good judgment decide whether or not the level should hold or bust. For example, on days of hysteria where the dollar is getting smashed, you’re a lot less likely to make a ton of pips on these levels if they are countertrend. The same can be true for Fridays (stop hunting day), in times of option expiration or at the very end of the month. Regardless, even on these days, it is possible to use this technique to enter trades in the direction of the trend on a retracement to the exact pip, allowing you to take advantage of the madness of the volatility.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2035383&postcount=443
