Big Ben Strategy - optimised

tomorton

Legendary member
8,420 1,344
Late update.

May is finished - thank the lord!

Trading Tuesdays-Fridays only I make this a net result of -14r, the worst of the last 13 months. Actually, including Mondays (apart from the UK public Holiday this month) would have made the net result slightly better, improving it to -9r. Still pretty bad. Think I might as well go back to trading 5 days a week, what's to lose?

I suppose there are consolations - at least the worst month recorded was also the most unique - the national economies of both the UK and the US are crippled by the respective responses to the covid crisis. So perhaps it would have been a worryingly anomalous indicator if the strategy had done well in May. Maybe every strategy should be under-performing right now.

But the worst thing is that there is no concrete indication on the long-term charts for May that this should have been any worse a month than April or March. And that's worrying because although current unique conditions might have led to the month's poor performance, how will we know when these conditions are passed?

There might be some things to be done to optimise poor performance under current conditions -
1. as ever, keep r to a small percentage of the account capital (should be a constant rule, but maybe reducing r might be prudent)
2. price moves are failing, whether long or short: consider setting a TP at a conservative level, say +3r or even +2r: right now the rule is to conserve capital rather than maximise profits
3. if feeling a bit more aggressive, use a third entry order, set only after the first has been stopped out: so if the long is triggered first and is then stopped out (at which point the short is triggered), set a second new long at the original long entry level: if the short is triggered first and then stopped out, set a new short at the original short entry level. I don't have stats for this but a look-back over charts suggests this would work.

Onwards and upwards.
 

kalott

Established member
736 82

trendie

Legendary member
6,858 1,416
Unfortunate May.
How badly off was May compared to other losing months?
If you have established that Monday is a nett loser, I think you should hold onto that, and stick with passing on Mondays. Maybe, review in another month or two before deciding.

We are in June now. You are trying to trade May again in June.
We all do this from time to time. "If only my indicator was X instead of Y. I would have made money" etc.

Obviously its up to you, but by jumping a rule after one month, is to ignore your 12-month analysis.
Good luck, and kudos for showing all your trades, good and bad; a very rare trait. (y)
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,420 1,344
Unfortunate May.
How badly off was May compared to other losing months?
If you have established that Monday is a nett loser, I think you should hold onto that, and stick with passing on Mondays. Maybe, review in another month or two before deciding.

We are in June now. You are trying to trade May again in June.
We all do this from time to time. "If only my indicator was X instead of Y. I would have made money" etc.

Obviously its up to you, but by jumping a rule after one month, is to ignore your 12-month analysis.
Good luck, and kudos for showing all your trades, good and bad; a very rare trait. (y)


Without Mondays, May was the worst loser in the last 13, but not by much margin, and there were only 3 other losers. If the 3 available Mondays in May had been traded, the month would have still been a big loser but smaller than two of the other 3.

I actually don't have statistics to show Monday is a loser, only that its the weakest day of the 5 for the strategy. Yes, I am going to bring it back in except for UK or US Public Holidays of course (Monday is the preferred option for these in both countries). I'm not convinced its going to make much difference either way, except that running the trades with a fixed SL and no TP always leaves the door open to an unexpected big winner. Well, we'll soon know.

My greater worry is that the charts in both short and long time-frames, and their various indicators, don't show May as being anything special.
 

jeffre5

Junior member
35 4
how as the last two weeks trading fared
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,420 1,344
how as the last two weeks trading fared


Pretty terrible. Every move is followed by a counter-move, then a counter-counter-move.

If anyone's trading this strategy, make sure your positions are small, you may want to consider tight TP's, trailing stops, with-trend entry orders only, etc. Its a matter of protecting capital through the covid episode. The thing that gets me is that the strategy can only be seen to not work when it doesn't work.
 

barjon

Legendary member
10,705 1,809
Tomo,

I’m not sure what is the logic behind this on forex which is continuous trading or whether you are just taking a convenient slice of time as volume is picking up in London. On the indices the logic is that the market opening skirmishes, mainly caused by overnight orders being processed, need to settle down before any trend (if any) emerges. Sometimes that happens within 5 to 15 minutes, sometimes up to an hour or longer when there is still indecision about any favoured direction. I used to use 1/2 hour tester, 1hour add with a condition attached that the break out must have some momentum (subjective) about it. This was because I got fed up being drawn in by “choppy”, ranging action which went nowhere, or stopped me out. Have a look at Nasdaq 1/2 and 1 hour lately.

best

jon
 
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tomorton

Legendary member
8,420 1,344
Apologies all for a late update on last week's performance of this strategy.

It wasn't a bad week in the end, and certainly an improvement on those just previous.

I logged Monday as the only single trade day of the week, running to +2r by 1400hrs. Tuesday and Wednesday were double trade days, each running to -1r by 1400, and Thursday was a double closing at +4r. Friday was a double trade day but net break-even.

The impressive performance from Thursday is a little misleading as the Bank of England made an announcement which pushed the second trade further than it otherwise would have been expected.

My own performance has been moderated by using small positions but also taking profits where available before 1400. I've been using +1r as TP for the first of the two trades triggered and +2r for the second, net result for the week +2.5r. After the shocking run in May I'm happy with that.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,420 1,344
Last full week of June, and just a few more days to go for a monthly summary.

The week was not as bad as it could have been on recent experience. 5 trading sessions, net result -1r. I actually managed to get a profit of +1r over the week by using a +1r TP rather than open-ended entry orders.

Things might be slowly improving but we're still in a pandemic crisis and protection of capital is the rule for the time being.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,420 1,344
Big Ben summary for June.

OK, we're still in a global pandemic with widespread lockdowns and economic paralysis. So the small net loss for June is very encouraging - for me at least.

Net result -4r out of 35 trades in 22 days. Days with single trades were more common this month, which is perhaps a sign of a market that is regaining confidence in moving firmly away from the open either up or down. Still too many days with double losers - 9 this month, which is above average and really hurts the net gain result.

Still, the long-term performance remains OK. Over the 14 months, the strategy would have returned +90r. This is fine if you use a standard trade size of a fixed percentage of your account capital. There have been 9 winning months and 5 losers. The net average monthly gain is +6r. The 12mth rolling net gain is +95r.

Obviously I'm pressing on with this strategy, but still using a conservative TP and small position sizes while markets are so jittery.

Happy July all!
 
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tomorton

Legendary member
8,420 1,344
Weekly Big Ben update.

Another difficult week with too many double trades.
Mon - double trade, +1r result
Tue - double trade, both losers, -2r result
Wed - long trade only, +2r result
Thur - double trade, both losers, -2r result
Fri - double trade, -1r result

We're clearly still in bunker market conditions so I'm continuing to trade small with conservative TP's (could be worth trying OCO orders for these bracket set-ups). There's certainly no early strong commitment from the London open, which is what the strategy depends on for the multi-r wins to bump up the returns. Hey ho.

Have a good weekend.
 

trendie

Legendary member
6,858 1,416
hi tomorton,
Just to clarify, are you trading Mondays now? I think you had toyed with missing them out.
Also, what is the exit time? I thought it was 2pm?
thanks
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,420 1,344
hi tomorton,
Just to clarify, are you trading Mondays now? I think you had toyed with missing them out.
Also, what is the exit time? I thought it was 2pm?
thanks


Yes, I've brought Mondays back into the fold, until more data available. Exit remains 1400 UK time.
 

trendie

Legendary member
6,858 1,416
hi tomorton,
is this still an active project?
been around a month since last update.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,420 1,344
Hi t. I'm not trading it at all right now, just tracking the chart and the general market conditions (which do not favour this one still). July summary coming up soon.
 
 
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