Big Ben Strategy - optimised

tomorton

Legendary member
8,051 1,180
This am I've done a further 3 months of backtesting using an IG Demo account, so I now have the strategy's statistics for the last 11 full months.

After Month 2 the strategy's equity at month-end has never been negative. The overall net result is +94r over the 11 months. If you use a standardised risk per trade as a % of your account capital its easy to figure out what a nice return this suggests.

Looking forwards to Monday. Have a nice weekend meanwhile.
 
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tomorton

Legendary member
8,051 1,180
Another BB week completed. Not trading this tomorrow as its a UK public holiday (nor Monday next week for the same reason).

A decent return this week of +2r for the week, net +3r for April. I thought at first yesterday (Wednesday) of not taking the trade as the 0700 candle was suddenly so wide, but it was not out of proportion to those during Tuesday's London session so I let the orders run.

Have a good Easter all.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,051 1,180
Minor update which might be of interest - as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is now discharged from hospital after covid-19 infection, this might be very positive for the GBP tomorrow even though London banks will be mostly not open for trading as its a holiday here, so I will now be trading the Big Ben tomorrow morning.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,051 1,180
The week is over for my Big Ben trades. Monday and Tuesday did nothing special, Wednesday made appr. +10r, yesterday and today were double losses at -2r each. So the net for the week is +6r.

Very happy with that, and with progress for April so far - net gain is +9r.

Have a good weekend all.
 
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trendie

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6,452 1,081
Good, solid, returns there, tomorton!

Are certain days more profitable than others?
Also, given its a session breakout, have you applied your concept to the US markets?
 

tomorton

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8,051 1,180
Thanks trendie, this is going every bit as well as I had hoped.

I did dabble with this on the USD/JPY around the NY open a month back but its not anything like as reliable - too many double false breakouts, too little price travel.

As far as I can tell, there is a great key to finding a suitable candidate for breakouts at the same regular time of day. See the M30 chart for GBP/USD pre the virus emergency, let's say start of the year to 20/02. Add ATR20. The indicator shows extremely sharp peaks, regularly spaced - lows are at about 0500-0630, highs are at about 1700-1800. The ratio between the ATR's daily high and daily low is typically between about 2.5:1 to 3.5:1 Its is not often 2:1 or lower. Its like a heartbeat. I believe this is a pointer to what makes for a great candidate for entries around the London open.

Compare cable's regular sharp up-down, up-down pattern with USD/JPY and it just doesn't have the same pattern. Its pretty irregular, to the point where it looks very possibly random.

EUR/USD does show the heartbeat trace. The ATR peaks and troughs are around the same times as for GBP/USD, so I suspect its again the London open which is the key, not NY.

If someone wanted to trade NY opening range breakouts, I believe they should look for the same ATR heartbeat but with ATR highs and lows 4-5 hours later in the day obviously.
 

timsk

Legendary member
7,306 2,093
. . .As far as I can tell, there is a great key to finding a suitable candidate for breakouts at the same regular time of day. See the M30 chart for GBP/USD pre the virus emergency, let's say start of the year to 20/02. Add ATR20. . .
Any chance of a chart please Tom? A picture paints a thousand words etc. Ta very muchly.
Tim.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,051 1,180
For a little bit more clarity (and also to show off a bit...) here is the BB trade set-up from this last Wednesday. One of the best BB trades I've seen.

The rectangle shown is drawn off the 0700-0730 M30 bar. Its a pretty narrow range so taking this is aggressive. I set a buy at the top of the rectangle and a sell at the bottom. The long was not triggered, the short triggered in the next half-hour and it is exited manually at 2pm, shown by the oval lower down in the pic.

1587215312778.png


As happens so often, right after 2, price action re-sets. The 1330 bar's close ended up being the lowest of the day. Good result all round even though I say so myself.
 
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jeffre5

Junior member
32 4
For a little bit more clarity (and also to show off a bit...) here is the BB trade set-up from this last Wednesday. One of the best BB trades I've seen.

The rectangle shown is drawn off the 0700-0730 M30 bar. Its a pretty narrow range so taking this is aggressive. I set a buy at the top of the rectangle and a sell at the bottom. The long was not triggered, the short triggered in the next half-hour and it is exited manually at 2pm, shown by the oval lower down in the pic.

View attachment 278273

As happens so often, right after 2, price action re-sets. The 1330 bar's close ended up being the lowest of the day. Good result all round even though I say so myself.
 

jeffre5

Junior member
32 4
I am interested in giving it a go just a couple of questions pls
1) I take it the RR would be based on the 0700 candle close from wick to wick not the body. So if 30 points that would be used to work out your risk.
2) what length of candle would you consider too large

cheers jeff
 

jeffre5

Junior member
32 4
I am interested in giving it a go just a couple of questions pls
1) I take it the RR would be based on the 0700 candle close from wick to wick not the body. So if 30 points that would be used to work out your risk.
2) what length of candle would you consider too large

cheers jeff
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,051 1,180
The Wednesday trade explained it thanks

Yes, r in pips is the bar's full height, from high to low.

An extra-long bar would be, for example, double or more the previous London session's average. Leaves it very unlikely price would move by multiples of r pips by 2pm, and quite possible that price would end at that time within the bar's range, between the high and the low, for a minor loss. On the other hand, an extra-long bar is unlikely to see both its high and low breached, so a double loss day would be unlikely. Not worth the trouble/risk in my mind.

An extra-short bar is also a problem - although multiple r rises or falls are probable, so is a double loss day, with both high and low of the bar breached very quickly. A pragmatic work-around would be to combine the 0700 bar with the previous bar, which I have had to do once or twice.
 
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