Bad luck bangkoker. I thought I might have been caught by a short then stopped out but when I checked, happily my sell order had not triggered - took the low of the 8-9 band as 5886.3, sell order entered at 5884.3 but did not trigger (low of the day was 5886.0 on the chart).
Average BB range 0800-0900 so far this year is 36 but rising - 33 week 1, 36 week 2, 40 last week.
Keep at it, there'll be more winners than losers.
Average BB range 0800-0900 so far this year is 36 but rising - 33 week 1, 36 week 2, 40 last week.
Keep at it, there'll be more winners than losers.
Yes bad luck Bangkoker.
I was at the same sell trigger as you tomorton, 2 points below my 08:00-09:00 low at 5884.0, and narrowly missed. Triggered on the buy at 5916. Unfortunately my stop is a lot tighter than yours and I got stopped out.
If the market is looking like trending more again I'll be moving to full range BB stop and T/P.
I was at the same sell trigger as you tomorton, 2 points below my 08:00-09:00 low at 5884.0, and narrowly missed. Triggered on the buy at 5916. Unfortunately my stop is a lot tighter than yours and I got stopped out.
If the market is looking like trending more again I'll be moving to full range BB stop and T/P.
Round-up for the week reads well -
1 target hit, 2 expired positive, 1 expired negative. If you traded today, this also expired positive.
Over the last 4 weeks, we have -
3 targets hit, 5 expired positive, against 1 stopped out, 2 expired negative, plus 5 no trades.
If you traded the Fridays, these were 2 targets hit, 1 expired positive and 1 no trade.
As you might expect, I'm wondering why not trade Fridays.
1 target hit, 2 expired positive, 1 expired negative. If you traded today, this also expired positive.
Over the last 4 weeks, we have -
3 targets hit, 5 expired positive, against 1 stopped out, 2 expired negative, plus 5 no trades.
If you traded the Fridays, these were 2 targets hit, 1 expired positive and 1 no trade.
As you might expect, I'm wondering why not trade Fridays.
I suspect that Friday is probably nearly (if not just as) +EV as all the other days.
brewski1984
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stopped out today?
brewski1984
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Bad times, I only started this yesterday so not a good start for me. I thought I might have done something wrong as the low of 8-9am range was pretty much around 9am and my order was executed about a minute after placing it. Is there any sense in waiting in situations like that or have I missed something?
Commiserations. I have not found any way to identify at 8am which will be a day that it will pay to stay in a BB trade and which it will pay to get out, barring the general rule that if the target hasn't been hit by 4:30pm, it most probably won't be during the rest of the evening SB session. Of course, it might run in your favour after that time, but it equally might run against you. All trading systems incur losing trades: the ocurrence of a loser today does not mean anything one way or the other.
Weekly review - I make this a draw at best: 1 trade hit target, 1 expired positive, 1 stopped out, 1 expired negative and 1 no-trade.
Over the (more realistic period of the) last 4 weeks, a much more encouraging result - 5 hit target, 7 expired positive, 1 stopped out, 3 expired negative and 4 no-trades.
This is not a get rich quick game, it's for old and grumpy, rather lazy traders who want to see what their risk is.
Over the (more realistic period of the) last 4 weeks, a much more encouraging result - 5 hit target, 7 expired positive, 1 stopped out, 3 expired negative and 4 no-trades.
This is not a get rich quick game, it's for old and grumpy, rather lazy traders who want to see what their risk is.
brewski1984
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I must be going wrong somewhere then because my results are different to yours.
I was expired positive Monday, at 4:30 it was negative but I am lucky if I get on at exactly 4:30 so I made 10 points. Tuesday I was stopped out as above and Wednesday no trade was triggered. Thursday I got stopped out at around 4:45 I haven't got exact details on phone. Today I wasn't able to do the trade but my results are different either way?
I'm not old and grumpy yet but I'm getting there lol
I was expired positive Monday, at 4:30 it was negative but I am lucky if I get on at exactly 4:30 so I made 10 points. Tuesday I was stopped out as above and Wednesday no trade was triggered. Thursday I got stopped out at around 4:45 I haven't got exact details on phone. Today I wasn't able to do the trade but my results are different either way?
I'm not old and grumpy yet but I'm getting there lol
Surely only Thursday is different. It's either due to chart variations on the BB range or the stop was triggered later than reported.
I see 0800-0900 BB range of 5995.8-5960.5 = 35.3 (30min bars on FTSE100 Rolling). Short triggered between 1500 and 1530, price immediately went as low as 5949.5 (-11pts) so limit order did not trigger. But I see price at 1630 as 5981.3, in the red but only 20.8pts above entry. Price continued to rise and if I had left the trade open, my stop would have been hit but not until 2000-2030.
So I have to suspect either your chart's high for the BB range was lower than my chart's, or your stop was not triggered at 1645-ish, but over 2 hours later.
I see 0800-0900 BB range of 5995.8-5960.5 = 35.3 (30min bars on FTSE100 Rolling). Short triggered between 1500 and 1530, price immediately went as low as 5949.5 (-11pts) so limit order did not trigger. But I see price at 1630 as 5981.3, in the red but only 20.8pts above entry. Price continued to rise and if I had left the trade open, my stop would have been hit but not until 2000-2030.
So I have to suspect either your chart's high for the BB range was lower than my chart's, or your stop was not triggered at 1645-ish, but over 2 hours later.
brewski1984
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so I missed the winner today then!
I am using Capital Spreads Iphone app the majority of the time although i do use a demo account on cmc markets Iphone app as the charts are better to get the range from. Anyway, on thursday i had a range of 5960-5996= 36 points (I haven't really been taking into account anything other than whole numbers, is that a pretty huge mistake?). My short was indeed triggered at 5956 between 1500 and 1530. Taking what you said about being 20.8 points down, does that mean your entry was at 5960.5 and not 5956 like mine? I was stopped out at 5992 at 1645.
I am using Capital Spreads Iphone app the majority of the time although i do use a demo account on cmc markets Iphone app as the charts are better to get the range from. Anyway, on thursday i had a range of 5960-5996= 36 points (I haven't really been taking into account anything other than whole numbers, is that a pretty huge mistake?). My short was indeed triggered at 5956 between 1500 and 1530. Taking what you said about being 20.8 points down, does that mean your entry was at 5960.5 and not 5956 like mine? I was stopped out at 5992 at 1645.
Actually, I have always set my entry orders at the BB high (mid-price) +2pts or BB low (mid-price) -2pts, so my short entry was 5958.5 at 1510. But I think your stop was low: if your BB range was 5960-5996, your stop on a short should have been at 5996 at least, or actually 5997 to allow for Caps' 1pt spread.
brewski1984
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Ah, I thought your stop was the amount of the range ie. 36 on Thursday, hence I added 36 to my entry for the stop.
Guess it just goes to show it's the person who fails the system not the system that fails the person!
Guess it just goes to show it's the person who fails the system not the system that fails the person!
Cheers brew, I hope you have better results next week.
I happily admit I have made a few arithmetic errors when setting my orders, stops and limits, as a result of which, I now do this with pen and paper first, very methodically. The worksheet has boxes where I can enter High, Low, Range (H-L), Long entry (H+2), Long limit (H+R), Long stop (L-1) and vice versa for Shorts. I have actually staggered the text boxes across the sheet so that higher prices have boxes higher on the sheet than lower, another clue to any unseen errors.
I happily admit I have made a few arithmetic errors when setting my orders, stops and limits, as a result of which, I now do this with pen and paper first, very methodically. The worksheet has boxes where I can enter High, Low, Range (H-L), Long entry (H+2), Long limit (H+R), Long stop (L-1) and vice versa for Shorts. I have actually staggered the text boxes across the sheet so that higher prices have boxes higher on the sheet than lower, another clue to any unseen errors.
Andyclockwise
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Hi Tom, just started following this great thread. I have downloaded the spreadsheet attached to this thread (BigBenV3) and using the values for Thursday 5960-5996 I get the short stop value as 5994, is this correct, or is the 5997 value you quoted above correct, if so how did you calculate this?
Welcome Andy - I would make the short stop H+1, plus 1pt because that is the spread on my SB FTSE100 Rolling market from Capital Spreads: if your SB book's spread were, say 4, the short stop should be H+4.
The values I use are therefore, Buy order = H+2, Long limit = H+R, Long stop = L-1; Sell order = L-2, Short limit = L-R, Short stop = H+1.
To be honest, I find it difficult to mentally calculate stops and limits in opposite directions on just the FTSE. When I was trying to do this on GBP/USD and EUR/USD as well I was making errors that the SB platform did not pick up, e.g. placing the stop within the BB range or setting the limit order close to entry or too far out to be hit. One good market is all you need, but you must give it absolute focus, just for the 5 or 10 minutes it takes to set orders. It's also valuable to use an OCO order so that if your first entry order is triggered and the position subsequently stopped, you are not also entred into a trade in the opposite direction - alright, it might be a winner, but i don't want to take two trades in one day when I have no data on how the second (which could be opened 1 minute before the Close) would perform.
After my 6 FTSE100 orders are in, I don't re-open the SB platform until I go back in to exit any position that remains open at the London Close. And I don't delay exiting, regardless of unrealised gain, loss or what the chart looks like.
The values I use are therefore, Buy order = H+2, Long limit = H+R, Long stop = L-1; Sell order = L-2, Short limit = L-R, Short stop = H+1.
To be honest, I find it difficult to mentally calculate stops and limits in opposite directions on just the FTSE. When I was trying to do this on GBP/USD and EUR/USD as well I was making errors that the SB platform did not pick up, e.g. placing the stop within the BB range or setting the limit order close to entry or too far out to be hit. One good market is all you need, but you must give it absolute focus, just for the 5 or 10 minutes it takes to set orders. It's also valuable to use an OCO order so that if your first entry order is triggered and the position subsequently stopped, you are not also entred into a trade in the opposite direction - alright, it might be a winner, but i don't want to take two trades in one day when I have no data on how the second (which could be opened 1 minute before the Close) would perform.
After my 6 FTSE100 orders are in, I don't re-open the SB platform until I go back in to exit any position that remains open at the London Close. And I don't delay exiting, regardless of unrealised gain, loss or what the chart looks like.
