Beginner looking for answers please!

[15 min tlb]

Something tells me you are going to open a psychology shop at some point. But I am born with a winner mindset. So I wouldn't make a customer. All the loosers - as much as 95% of the retail gambler joes - are already sold on the idea. They'd grasp at straws or anything else. Easy money though.

I am going to take grammar classes first , if that works , I will then take a 7 year course to become a shrink. That is 7 years from now.

 

[pboyles]

What he is saying is this:

Writing a book,song or poetry or painting a nice picture isn't that difficult, it's hard, but it is not difficult. A percentage will make it work, a percentage won't, but a default position of negativity is surely not going to help anyone?

I know, I know, we each have our own view - but at least I'd like to strike a counterpoint tone to the 'don't give them false hope' brigade and say that retail writing and painting absolutely can work, it can be enormously open-ended and profitable, and it does not need any prior experience. It just won't work for everyone.

Good luck.

A few years ago a chap came on here and said that he was a builder. He said the building trade wasn't what it used to be and he was going to sell his van and tools and start 'professional' spread betting to feed his family. Now what would you adbise him? Read a few threads and he'll have a good chance of doing well or tell him to wise up and stick to working?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

I will then take a 7 year course to become a shrink.

That would be a looser mindset. Instead, just grab some youtube videos, learn what they are saying, and you will be good to go. Like I said, the looser joes are grasping at straws. All you need is the willingness to offer a straw. Come to think of it, you can become a trading coach in a similar fashion. They will be throwing money at you if only you would be willing to promise them a straw.

 

[15 min tlb]

What about the the guy on the other side of your trade ? He's some kind of an idiot, and he's controlled by candlesticks and moving averages ?

Now you you are showing us your professional knowledge.Keep it up.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

A few years ago a chap came on here and said that he was a builder. He said the building trade wasn't what it used to be and he was going to sell his van and tools and start 'professional' spread betting to feed his family. Now what would you adbise him? Read a few threads and he'll have a good chance of doing well or tell him to wise up and stick to working?

Well, there was another story of a BT guy making it left and right. Perhaps it is possible to feed the family from spread betting.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Now you you are showing us your professional knowledge.Keep it up.

Never claimed to be a pro. I was in a pro thread for a while and gained plenty. So much so that I think I am going to beat the pro's. But from my observation of them, they are definitely not controllable by candlesticks, moving averages, or even macd ! All they are ever interested seems to be grabbing money given the slightest of chances. They'd turn candlesticks, moving averages, or macd upside down if they have to just to grab at a few pennies.

 

[new_trader]

A few years ago a chap came on here and said that he was a builder. He said the building trade wasn't what it used to be and he was going to sell his van and tools and start 'professional' spread betting to feed his family. Now what would you adbise him? Read a few threads and he'll have a good chance of doing well or tell him to wise up and stick to working?

I'd advise him to:

1) Read and memorise every single thread in the 'First Steps' section of this forum.
2) Read every trading book published between June 20 1932 and May 29 1998, paying particular attention to books with pictures of money on the cover, they should be read twice.
3) Attend every 3rd Trading seminar, unless they start on Wednesday.
4) Open a DEMO account and practice trading blindfolded.

That's about it I think.

 

[timsk]

PB,
Perhaps you and I should have a little New Year heart to heart. Let’s see if we can clear the air and start 2013 on the right track.

But isn't that the reality for the vast, vast majority of people?

I believe it is. So, then, what is the role, the function, the purpose – call it what you will – of T2W in all of this? In a nutshell, I think it boils down to two things:
A) Of those few that make it, hopefully, they achieve their trading objectives faster and with less pain (aka financial loss) than they would had they not stumbled upon and joined the site.
B) Of the majority that don’t make it, hopefully, they end their trading journey (however brief it may be) faster and with less pain (aka financial loss) than they would had they not stumbled upon and joined the site.
Whether the member in question is the next George Soros – or that chap you’ve highlighted on ET - matters not. T2W’s ‘job’ - and my job in particular – is to do whatever I/we can to help members work out what (if anything) will work for them and, in the event that they can’t find anything, make the minimum number of mistakes and lose the minimum amount of money trying. I think that’s an important and worthwhile goal and I do my level best to help all members achieve one or other of those outcomes. It’s not for me to decide in advance which category any one member will fall into. Do you tell a small boy there’s no point kicking a football around the back garden as he’ll never be good enough to play for an amateur team, let alone a professional one? You may be happy playing God – I’m not.

So if you don't tell them that then it is sort of giving them false hope.

If you haven’t read any of the ‘official’ stuff I write recently – please take a look. As I said in my previous post, I repeatedly stress all the basics about this being a very tough business and that there are no quick ‘n easy cookie cutter solutions. By way of example, these are the closing comments of the recently added Sticky on TA: “Hopefully, the other important message has also hit home. Namely, that although many of the basic principles of TA are just that – basic – applying them well on a consistent basis to make profitable trades is far from easy. It will take time, effort and practice to learn. The road ahead offers no short cuts, no holy grails, just lots of hard work. Enjoy the journey!” All the official content is littered with warnings like this.

If you (or anyone else for that matter) feel that the balance isn’t right and that a new member reading the Stickies and FAQs etc. could still come away with the impression that it’s easy – then by all means point out the offending sentences and paragraphs. I will amend them without delay. This offer is made in all the OPs (of Stickies etc.) and I’ve made it to you, the hare and other detractors on numerous occasions. Unless you highlight specific examples of where I’ve got the balance wrong – then what am I to do? I’m a fabulously clever and talented bloke, obviously, but I’m not clairvoyant!

Of course I understand that nobody in the industry wants that message being put out.

I’m glad you wrote this because it brings me to my last and most important point. I suspect you and a few other members misunderstand my role here on T2W. I’ve outlined the general function and purpose of T2W as I see it in the opening section. So, what is my role in helping to achieve it? The stuff I write isn’t (necessarily) my own views. I try my best (and I readily accept I may not always succeed) to present a balanced view wherever I can. You may recall that when I drafted the FAQ about vendors I solicited your views (and those of other members critical of vendors) as well as some vendors themselves. And so it is with the other content I produce. In essence, the official content is a group effort. In this respect you, the hare and other detractors are as complicit in the official output on T2W as I am. Therefore, you are as much a part of the ‘industry’ as I am. I am merely the conduit. The onus is on the membership – i.e. you – to highlight any errors or passages offering false hope so that they can be amended. As talented as I am, I don’t claim to get everything right all of the time. I need your help and that of other members. Based on your post history, you strike me as a knowledgeable trader. As such, I rely on the likes of you to help – not criticise – on the occasions the content falls short of expectations. If you think that by pointing new members towards official content offers them false hope - it's up to you point out why. If you and other members who have the knowledge and experience fail to offer that support – that’s not a failing on my part or my responsibility. It’s yours.

It appears to me that there was a time when you subscribed to the ethos of the site which I’ve outlined here. If that’s changed, then perhaps you’ll want to move on to somewhere else that’s more aligned to your views of the markets and those who attempt to trade them. Personally, I hope you’ll stay and use your undoubted skills to help make T2W the best it can be and fulfil its primary purpose. Namely: to enable all its members to either achieve their trading objectives as fast as possible, or move on to pastures new without losing their shirts attempting to play a game to which they are unsuited.

My very best wishes for 2013.
Tim.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Here's an idea. Given that it is generally agreed that 95% of retail joes lose to the markets, and that the red and black on the roulette table has maybe 55% chance of losing, shouldn't we tell more people to go to the casino ? The odds would favour this proposition.

 

[the hare]

Here's an idea. Given that it is generally agreed that 95% of retail joes lose to the markets, and that the red and black on the roulette table has maybe 55% chance of losing, shouldn't we tell more people to go to the casino ? The odds would favour this proposition.

You don't understand the concept of an edge do you ?

What percentage of punters do you think lose playing negative expectancy games ?

I despair, this is what happens when you spend too much time at the zoo ! Good 4 d lulz though

 

[BeginnerJoe]

You don't understand the concept of an edge do you ?

I never toss coins if that's what you are saying. When I put in effort, I want returns with almost certainty. The coins don't cut it.

 

[Liquid validity]

.............

 

[Mr. Charts]

"almost certainty" doesn't exist in the markets except very short term.
Trading is a probability business and any losing trades obviously have to be kept small as we all know, but they should be regarded as the cost of doing business just like fixed and marginal costs are in any business.

 

[Mr. Charts]

It makes a nice change when the OP actually says, "please" !

 

[BeginnerJoe]

"almost certainty" doesn't exist

It does if you know how. Certainty, like anything else, can be controlled.

But didn't you once say momentum will give you a profit almost immediately ?

 

[Mr. Charts]

It does if you know how. Certainty, like anything else, can be controlled.

But didn't you once say momentum will give you a profit almost immediately ?

It does most of the time, and I did say "very short term". It means most trades go into profit very quickly, but a percentage will always fail to follow through but if you manage your position well even a failed trade often gives a small profit, break even or sometimes even a small loss.

However if you personally can "control" certainty then that appears to mean you can tell the future with certainty.
That makes you very clever.
You should meet SOCRATES and exchange notes. He could always read the future with certainty too. And he was brilliant trading the DAX by the way.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

However if you personally can "control" certainty then that appears to mean you can tell the future with certainty.

Yes, something like that. It's called contingency planning.

 

[Jason101]

I read this post just now, and I was wondering one thing.
What exactly does it take to preform well in the market? It seems like most advance traders don't expect beginners to make it. I understand most fail, but the adept traders were once beginners at one point. Is there really any hope?

In the few years I've been here, I have seen many want-to-be traders come here, fail and go away again.
Just to break even you need to get loads and loads of things just right. But just one or two things a little wrong to completly fail.

 

[Jason101]

Some very good points for me to consider, thanks. Certainly understand the rationale of trading 1-2% of your account as a max with each trade however on an account with £20,000 how is a trade of approx £400 expected to return a profit? Surely this would require a huge price increase to return any profit at all? Buying/selling and SDRT costs will have such an impact. I am looking to trade UK Stocks only with no margin or leveraging.

That is probably the most sensible thing I have read on here for a long time.

Be weary of this site, already people have been pointing you towards fx, (the most highly leveraged gamble out there.) In this website and in the general world of trading there are so many avenues and dead ends that you need to stay focussed and home in on information that fits your initial ideas on trading.

For uk stocks, with no margin, leveraging and no selling short (I think you said) you could do a lot worst than reading The Naked Trader books, and his website.
He has a healthy balance of reality about him.

 

[new_trader]

It does most of the time, and I did say "very short term". It means most trades go into profit very quickly, but a percentage will always fail to follow through but if you manage your position well even a failed trade often gives a small profit, break even or sometimes even a small loss.

However if you personally can "control" certainty then that appears to mean you can tell the future with certainty.
That makes you very clever.
You should meet SOCRATES and exchange notes. He could always read the future with certainty too. And he was brilliant trading the DAX by the way.

Exactly. The people (like you and me) who use terms like "near certainty" and "almost immediately" when talking about trading and profits are people who trade with tight stops and speak directly from experience...as SOCRATES would say, battle-hardened experience!

No point arguing about it, because as SOCRATES would say, “Those who know, know and those who don’t, don’t”