Back with new system after so many failures.

[AriaS]

Hi, guys. I am back. As you know, after I used to be very successful in news trading in the past, I've failed for years to create a long-lasting non-news trading strategy.
I did have some temporary success, even high placements on Darwinia (allocation of 100k with my YOT Darwin), but in the end all the strategies had failed. They simply did not live up to my expectation.

Combination of factors that define a failure for me:

*Disclaimer: what feels like a failure to me, might not be to others. Some traders might overcome the problems mentioned below, and even become successful in a long term, but to me, they mean loss of interest.

1. A losing month that erases the gain of 2 previous months.
2. Several losing months.
3. Yearly recovery factor < 1.5, since my long term stock investment makes more.
4. Backtests fail during critical times - covid 19, war etc (almost certanly would cause a failure at some point in the future).

Recently, for the first time ever I came up with a strategy that survives the bad periods of the past in backtest (covid 19, russian invasion of Ukraine, etc.). It works well with any pair, doesn't have negative months, and most important: its logic is not a result of optimization. The only drawback: I mostly backtest it on OHLC. It's not perfect, but I compared as much as I could with real ticks and the result is close enough. Slippage also should not be a problem. Another drawback: backtests older than 6 years ago start showing unsatisfactory results and I don't yet know why. In the meantime, I started trading live and the result is close to the backtest.

 

[AriaS]

First live trades were made and are almost identical to the back test.

A bit about the strategy: It trades 27 pairs. Entrances and exits are made by a custom indicator that is a mix of several indicators. It performs well in all market conditions: trending, ranging, sudden volatility growth, etc. It's a swing strategy and adapts itself to swap prices. It makes about 1.5 trades per day. Back test shows +7.5% monthly with maximal drawdown of 25%.

 

[AriaS]

Also, I finally developed a stock trading strategy to beat my own investing strategy that I started in the end of 2023.
I made it avoid buying during bad periods like around Covid-19 and 2022, when my long term strategy would have dropped by 30% and 60% respectively. Needless to say, that this strategy only buys. I don't think shorting stocks is a wise thing to do.

Look how well it performs, considering the fact that it is not optimized on those periods. +770% in 10 years. The drawdown in 2022 is only 21%. I am thinking if I should make a Darwin out of it. The swaps will reduce the profit by around 25%. Any ideas? Maybe there is a better platform for this?

Stats:

Graph: during 2022 only one position would be held (a buy from Dec 2021):

 

[AriaS]

The first 16 trades. All winners. I calculated the chance of this to happen due to luck. Darwinex shows Average positive excursion at 0.07% and Average negative excursion at -0.12%, so the probability of hitting TP is 1-7/(7+12)=63%. To get 16/16 lucky TP hits with such probability has a 0.06% chance of success.

 

[AriaS]

Back test of EURUSD seven years backwards (one of the 27 pairs used in the strategy) : 2020 - 2025 is optimized; 2018 - 2019 (unknown territory). I've never seen yet such an insane result!
The TP is around 10 pips. There is an exit algorithm, but amazingly it didn't trigger even once in this period.

 

[AriaS]

29 trades so far. 27 wins + 2 open trades in loss (-1.2%). And what I love the most: it's the first time ever that I achieve such a low VaR and the average winning trade is quite high - 21 pips.

 

[AriaS]

The stock trading strategy (mentioned above) made its first trade on Darwinex 11 days ago. Bought 7 contracts of Apple. Currently in DD of 3%. Already have paid $3 for swaps. Yes, holding stock longs on Darwinex is not cheap. The Swap price = stock price / 5,000 per contract approximately. I don't know if I should do it. But if not then I must move this money to my IBKR account. Anyways, if I decide to keep it, a Darwin will be created in less than a month.