Astrazeneca - AZN

[hindsight]

Astrazeneca [short on Monday 6 Sept 04]

Here's my Monday goal for AZN. After Fridays bounce I'm looking for a fall back on profit taking and light trades caused by the labour day weekend. FTSE to close down around 0.5% @ 4527 following on from the Dow's close on Friday and low volumes on Monday.

Astrazeneca [AZN.L]
Mid price of 2626p

Target Buy Price
Above 2620p [short position]

Target Sell Price
2612p [safe position]

Full Move anticipated
12-15 point range [down]

 

[Dentalfloss]

the mini nasdaq will give the clues to mondays opening.it is traded 24hrs/7.although i think there will be profit taking on azn. a good move friday.gap down premaket?

 

[Mark Barton]

it is overbought on the daily stochs.the 5 ma on the daily is still rising.this stock must gap down in premarket to take a short position.put up a chart on monday 3 mins.put in short position if stochs move down from the 80 band.take some profits at 20 band stochs.if downtrend is strong there will only be a small wiggle at the 20 band

 

[TheBramble]

It'll be interesting to see how AZN works out today. Regardless of its action, I like the way you guys are explaining your rationale, suggesting entry and exit criteria and even profit targets.

Good stuff.

 

[hindsight]

Thanks Tony.

30 mins time we should see for sure which way she's headed, once those spreads start settling down again.

James

 

[hindsight]

OK, 10 mins early but I'm in @ 2625. Spreads closed to a little under a point and i felt the higher in price more than made up for it given my expected points move.

 

[Dentalfloss]

didnt think you could sb premarket.which broker?

 

[hindsight]

What is it they say about the secret to comedy "its all in the.........timng".....seems i might have been a little premature.

Dentist, i didn't trade premarket. I'm trading CFD's with Etrade.

 

[hindsight]

Well not a lot to be said about this trade other than everything that could have gone wrong did. FTSE closed up 0.29% which almost exactly the opposite i was expecting and to top that off AZN which normally has a beta of 1.02 traded almost 3 times that during todays session. Needless to say i was stopped out mid afternoon...... Still feel the shares are now well overvalued and due for profit taking but with that kind of range over the last few days its getting a little expensive to predict.

 

[TheBramble]

Hindsight, why didn't you consider shorting it only if in a down trend and below 2620? You wouldn't have got filled today, true, but neither would you have been out of pocket either.

I'm interested in any strategy which goes against the trend of the timeframe being traded. I assumed (wrongly it seems) that when you were stating an entry of 'above 2620' you didn't also mean 'and falling'.

 

[hindsight]

Well hence the name "hindsight". I should have waited for the trend to form but i was so convinced that the market would fall back today that i took a position higher than initially planned and couldn't really recover once the move upwards set in. Timing the market that early in the day is always risky especially on such light volumes.

 

[Dentalfloss]

it was not going to work.large volume and price rise on friday.small gapp down on the open.the stock quickly recovered.the most you were going to get was the rebounds from any upticks

 

[hindsight]

Well thanks for the advice now ;-) Where were you last night.....

 

[Market Wizard]

Hindsight,

here is a link i found, hope it is of some help.

http://www.esignalcentral.com/learning/likepro/archive/0204/022004.asp

GL

 

[hindsight]

Hindsight,

here is a link i found, hope it is of some help.

http://www.esignalcentral.com/learning/likepro/archive/0204/022004.asp

GL

Excellent article thanks. Makes a lot of sense. I'm new to the short term trading having traditionally purchased stocks based more on longer term fundamentals. Timing isn't as critical an issue over several months and I'm learning all the time.

Thanks again for the link.

 

[Dentalfloss]

in order to be able to short.the stock must have run out of momentum.this means ma flattening.gap down at the premarket.this should be on the hourly chart at least.signals are for change in trend.as this stock had been climbing all week, the reversal was not going to be rapid.are you still holding this position?it looks to at a resistance level

 

[hindsight]

Well i missed it by a couple of days (thanks to those members who gave me advice), wont let it happen next time

 

[TheBramble]

To be valuable in wealth management, research has to focus on more than individual stocks. Gain some perspective, diversification can help manage risk. {ad link deleted}]

Even if this post does disappear it does raise an important point.

Diversification does not manage risk - it flattens your returns.

It gives you more to think about when you should IMHO be aiming to have less balls in the air at any one time.

"Put a significant number of eggs in one basket - and then WATCH the basket!"

 

[hindsight]

AZN - Down & Out

BETHESDA, Md., Sept 10 (Reuters) - A U.S. panel of medical advisers on Friday rejected AstraZeneca's AZN.L AZN.N drug Exanta for preventing blood clots in veins.

The panel earlier had voted against Exanta for preventing blood clots after knee replacement surgery, and was still considering whether to support the drug for long-term treatment to prevent strokes.

 

[Dentalfloss]

hindsight.you must take this as the learning curve.you jumped in far too early.as far as i can see,correct me if i am wrong,you put youre order in premarket.or certainly before 9.30 am.
if a stock is going down after a good run,you must see that it has lost momentum.this means the rate of increase in price diminishes to almost zero.you can get this from any momentum oscillator. chart ie macd.slow stoch.preferably the stock should gap down indecating the market maker lowers the ask to find buyers.
wait till 9.20am to see the direction of any move.put the stock up on 5 min chart and also 15 min.put on youre favourite moving averages and a momentum oscillator.
time the entry on the first pullback,going thru the low of the day or the 5 min oscillator going from overbought area down.
exits are at oscillator extreme,flat moving average or possibly before 4.30 pm.you dont want to see all the good work getting lost in the auction.
there were no good signals for a short the day you entered,however wednesday and particularly thursday there were.you should also check the stock lending data on advfn,before putting the trade on.
please could any member add,what should be looked for in level 2.
there must also be a good rhythm on time and sales,ie the stock edging down nicely with few and small pullbacks on the 5 min chart.
next time, you are prepared.