C
cantagril
Misunderstanding N°1: I don't. As I have said before - I'm sceptical of most things, including scepticism.
Misunderstanding N°2: CV19 isn't a radically new and improved plague from another planet but a member of a family that's been living in your neighbourhood for eons and in a recorded and analysed way since the 1960's. Again, as I mentioned earlier, the previous 18 viruses and their attendant studies dealt with transmission vectors and the matter of being infected without apparent symptoms. If you fall into the "it's just flu" camp then do think of it being just like flu and that if you breathe on someone whilst infected whilst not displaying symptoms that neither means that the lucky person will automatically get it...or not. Sharpen your oogling quill and do some reading on viral shedding.
Misunderstanding N°3: I'm not a fan of Test and Trace and tried to nudge you into understanding that by my reference to Bayes. If you can't be arsed to do any serious reading then at least have a cursory glance at a Wiki article which I'm sure will explain the reasons for my position in a few lines.
Misunderstanding N°4: Aaaaaaargh! Just repeating what you want to be true (or not) doesn't change anything. Once more with feeling: this virus is not the plague to end all plagues nor is it flu but it most definitely is a corona virus and with that in mind it does share several attributes in common with the happy family - transmission vectors, incubation periods, infection rates, symptoms or lack of them etc etc
Misunderstanding N°5: (This is getting as tiresome to write just as much as it is to read) You might well be a master in the art of subtle change detection but just how subtle and how much of a master are you? Our own dear Timskling was afflicted and felt rough but not rough enough to think that there was something abnormally abnormal. Unless you know a lot more than you're letting on I'd hazard that you'd be hard pressed to self-diagnose CV19 against some other lurgy...or maybe a hangover. If you care to re-read my previous where I mentioned the sequence of events that led up to my BinLaw's demise you'll deduce that someone was either asymptomatic whilst being infectious or telling porkies.
Misunde....oh bollox, I can't be buggered. If you aren't your own Stradivarius and so in tune with your body that you can tell when your Ying is a milli-grommet out in relation to your Yang then you'd be just like the rest of us mortals. We have good days and less good days but we don't spend hours of those days inspecting our navels and agonising just how we feel. We throw down some caffeine, take an extra glass of red, shout some abuse at some innocent (you have your ways, I have mine) and carry on. Have I had the virus? Dunno. Am I infected? Dunno. Have I infected someone? Dunno. Will I dies tomorrows? Dunno.....I am feeling a bit off-colour this a.m though. And I feel this curious urge to sink my teeth into the barista's neck. To be fair, that last bit's not new.
See my previous comments
Ah, misrepresentation!....or is it Reductio ad Absurdum? or maybe just a bit of both. Nothing like a good cocktail - though I do tend to stick to g&t meself. As you well know, I did not say that there were "14,000 super asymptomatic spreaders out there" and merely referenced a study on Sars. What I did do...I rather like did done..but as I'm nearer London than Louisiana I'll stick with the first one - anyways, I did do some inferring that certain data might be similar and therefore not a huge surprise. As you are an experienced project manager and consultant you obviously use (or at least have a nodding acquaintance with) inferential stats....you might even be a trend-follower like me, who knows; the point being that when you haven't got all the data the very best that you can do is make inferences.
A final word: I learned yesterday that the young son of some friends has tested positive and is coughin' like a goodun. The family have now been in isolation for a few days but so far neither Mum nor dad are showing any symptoms despite being tested positive as well.
I'll let you know who dies
Last edited by a moderator:
