Are we near a top?

[GruntnoWay]

I have been bullish and long of the FTSE since July 2003 but I think its running out of steam now. We are in the midst of resistance from 3 years ago and that seems to be holding us back. At best there's another 100 points in it before we correct back giving another fantastic buying opportunity.

Discuss!

 

[Racer]

Index name Index value (GBP) TRI (LOC) PE Ratio % Change on day % Change on quarter
Data as at: 01/08/2005 FTSE
FTSE 100 5290.85 2835.04 14.93 0.16 +10.19
FTSE 250 7617.82 3989.32 17.63 0.17 +13.21
FTSE 350 2696.37 2951.24 15.23 0.16 +10.59
FTSE All-Share 2649.12 2941.03 15.54 0.17 +10.52
FTSE Fledgling 3424.61 4660.74 -25.00 0.19 +6.47
FTSE AIM All-Share 1059.43 1021.01 720.82 0.51 +5.58
FTSE SmallCap 3040.85 3178.37 39.68 0.25 +8.49


Are they cheap or expensive?

FTSE100 p/e of 14.93 and 250 of 17.63
compared to S&P long term average of 15.84 over 79 years

http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/026.pdf

And what about the risks? Terrorists/oil/currency problems.... hmm, cheap?

 

[Anonymous]

Prediction:

The close of tomorrow's FTSE 100 index will be: lower than, or higher than, or the same as the close of today's FTSE 100 index.

 

[GruntnoWay]

Not sure what you are saying Racer? You do think its a top or you don't?

 

[Windlesham1]

We have retraced more than the Fib 61.8% since the low of '03,so who the hell knows? We have been fed such lies about the economy I think it's a total nonsense. The misdirection and bogus numbers make it impossible to talk about fundamentals. I hope we are near a top,because the misery created when the market gets too overbought is far more damaging than the silly profits of a few fund managers. Remember those ninnies who mismanage funds don't live in the real world-they don't have to sell their stock.

 

[GruntnoWay]

I take no notice of Fib. You would have said the same thing when it retraced 50%. I think the resistance here will hold us back while stale bulls offload stock

 

[Windlesham1]

Big MACD divergence and stochastics have been overbought since May-when it goes................
On another curious point-51% of trading days are up days,historically over 80 years. Last year we had a surplus of 27 up days,currently for this calendar year we have a surplus of 20 up days. It's like flipping a coin-long term it should come out at roughly 50%- England cricket Captains as ******s are right 50% of the time.(sorry couldn't resist that).

 

[techst]

In narrow range markets the MACD doesn't do a good job. Meaning that the FTSE100 could stay like this for sometime and print massive overbought signals and divergence. This has happened on all of the upward moves since March 03. The FTSE100 doesn't give many clues to its direction because of how narrow its been trading on the upward moves. I'd be waiting for a 1-2-3 reversal to show a change of trend, rather than trying to pick the top.

2005 is going to continue to be a good year. A study since 1854 shows that years ending 5 (1995,2005,85,75 and so on)are the best years to be long in the stock market. Better than any other year. So although many be maybe calling for a bear market. Van K Tharp even believes this is a 'false bull market', it's still a bull market. This picture may change in 2006, but I certainly wouldn't want to be short right now.