Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

FTSE just did 161.8% extension at 5378. It might have to tread water for a few minutes while the ES does the same, but I think it will struggle to hold it here.
 
We've had 7 days of lower lows on the daily ES. We are also following a nice clear channel lower on the 1 hour chart. We are very close to 1200 and to options expiry, so I am assuming there has to be a bounce day coming, possibly tomorrow. But I don't see enough strength for a higher high at the moment. Strange things happen at expiry so we could see a push up tomorrow and friday. I don't see it yet.
 
MartinC-J said:
Strange things happen at expiry so we could see a push up tomorrow and friday.
Click to expand...

legging out is a very tricky business and best left to the mathematicians

but as you say can produce some strange results

and if today was the bulls at work then tomorrow it could be the turn of the bears

or not

either way I will be sorry to see the back of Z1
 
Its looking a bit better now.. have taken a third of my position off at 5397, which was my plan on averaging.. get avergage price down and take some risk off once the price got above it. Leaves me a comfortable risk/ reward now and scope to add more in if price does get to the 5350 tomorrow
 
DJ

since your post the price has come back below your entry
and yet you continue to hold

brave, for sure
but not exactly swing trading

have you abandoned that idea ?
 
Mornington Crescent said:
DJ

since your post the price has come back below your entry
and yet you continue to hold

brave, for sure
but not exactly swing trading

have you abandoned that idea ?
Click to expand...

Another point is that I have a 90% probability that price will be back to 5440 by next week. Now.. it might come a lot lower, which is what my stop is for which I have at 75% ATR at the moment. If it hits this stop, then statistically I have just been very unlucky... but as they say sometimes "stuff" happens. It just means that the next time i take a trade such as this there is an even higher probability of it working.:)
 
morning DJ

I trust you will agree that the evidence from the charts is that we are in a downtrend

so as a SWING trader in order to go long you want to trade either a counter trend rally or a complete reversal of the trend

so what evidence was there when you entered that either was in progress ?

none that I can see

your entry had more of the hallmarks of bottom picking than trading a swing

so I wondered whether you had abandoned the idea


as a swing trader, where you place your stop once the price has moved in your favour is at a point to retain some of your profit
and not to let it run into a loss which runs the hazard of a downtrend continuaton

so the stop should be above your entry point not 50pts below it

(and await the next further opportunity)

at 50 points below, the original swing for which you were trading has obviously failed

By the way, I am not saying that your tactics wont work or that you wont finish what you are doing without a profit

It just doesnt fall into the SWING trading approach
as your profit would eventually be derived from a competely different swing
 
DaddyJohn said:
Another point is that I have a 90% probability that price will be back to 5440 by next week. Now.. it might come a lot lower, which is what my stop is for which I have at 75% ATR at the moment. If it hits this stop, then statistically I have just been very unlucky... but as they say sometimes "stuff" happens. It just means that the next time i take a trade such as this there is an even higher probability of it working.:)
Click to expand...

I work very much like you DJ, i love to have stats behind me so that when i see a good setup i can trade with confidence.

Can i ask what the 5440 price is and the sample size for the stat?

Swing Trading is a loose term and a number of different methods sit within this category. I do think the Taylor method falls into it.
 
Mornington Crescent said:
morning DJ

I trust you will agree that the evidence from the charts is that we are in a downtrend

so as a SWING trader in order to go long you want to trade either a counter trend rally or a complete reversal of the trend

so what evidence was there when you entered that either was in progress ?

none that I can see

your entry had more of the hallmarks of bottom picking than trading a swing

so I wondered whether you had abandoned the idea


as a swing trader, where you place your stop once the price has moved in your favour is at a point to retain some of your profit
and not to let it run into a loss which runs the hazard of a downtrend continuaton

so the stop should be above your entry point not 50pts below it

(and await the next further opportunity)

at 50 points below, the original swing for which you were trading has obviously failed

By the way, I am not saying that your tactics wont work or that you wont finish what you are doing without a profit

It just doesnt fall into the SWING trading approach
as your profit would eventually be derived from a competely different swing
Click to expand...

Agreed .. it seems rather odd and does smack of bottom picking :rolleyes:

but some of my best trades have come from this approach.. it doesnt always work but when it does it is good. My biggest weakness is not holding them long enough. For instance I had a short at 5630 .. which youcould be classified as top picking.. but I didnt hold for long enough. "must do better" as my teachers used to say:LOL:
 
DaddyJohn said:
Agreed .. it seems rather odd and does smack of bottom picking :rolleyes:

but some of my best trades have come from this approach.. it doesnt always work but when it does it is good. My biggest weakness is not holding them long enough. For instance I had a short at 5630 .. which youcould be classified as top picking.. but I didnt hold for long enough. "must do better" as my teachers used to say:LOL:
Click to expand...

well lets hope I was right and today is the day the bears rollover and lift the market for you
 
Mornington Crescent said:
well lets hope I was right and today is the day the bears rollover and lift the market for you
Click to expand...

Hey MC, to be a swing trader you are just looking to trade the swings. There are no set rules of setup.
I agree with what you saying it as the Taylor method does seem to be a bit unconventional, as the trades seem to go offside quite a bit when I would always close b/e and then look for a new and hopefully lower position.
With regards to bottom feeding, do you ever buy on a resistance line or do you always wait for confirmation?
 
reksa said:
With regards to bottom feeding, do you ever buy on a resistance line or do you always wait for confirmation?
Click to expand...

I do pretty much what I said in my post to DJ

I am not attracted by glass ceilings or glass floors

when they break you will find the market moves very rapidly as it catches all those traders offside and the scurrying to close just adds momentum to the move
 
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