Hi all,
Hope that some of you at least made some good cash and have brought lots of goodies. This cant be the case for all as we all know where the money comes from. One persons gain is anothers loss.
Gone short on Dax 30 from an average of 7629 - This is the level I was looking for. Barjon can back this up in a private message conversation. Stop is currently around 7800 but as usual I reserve the right to change my stance as I feel fit. The current target for profit is around 7k or 7%, however I feel over the coming months that the markets as a whole will drop dramatically. I also feel that Dax will retrace much lower than 7k or around 15% to 6400, currently my target will stick around the 7k area.
Recapping over the last year.
Dax is up around 19% more than some other major markets (Dow, S&P, FTSE) and therefore has the potential to suffer the greatest should a downturn come in to play. Here's the figures:
NOTE: These are spread betting prices and therefore may differ from actual market prices on open and close - percentages remain approximately the same and I've tried to be as accurate as I can - Individuals should do their own due diligence before taking this as written. There will be discrepancies.
DAX 30 - Open 5870 - Close 7532 up 29.4%
FTSE 100 - Open 5653 - Close 5875 up 3.9%
Dow 30 - Open 12221 - Close 12869 up 5.3%
S&P 500 - Open 1258 - Close 1391 up 10.5%
Dax is way out of sync and higher than the others by between 25.5 and 18.9%. Should the markets take a tumble Dax has the most to lose. This is why I have chosen Dax for my shorts. Should the markets rise then I shall look to switch and use Ftse 100 bets.
Major (known) Fundamentals to look out for:
US Fiscal Cliff Jan 2013
US Debt Ceiling estimated Feb/March 2013
Ongoing Euro Crisis
Currency fluctuations
China failing affecting Germany trade balance
As the news comes out we'll be able to make a better judgment of possibilities, until then traders are at the mercy of market sentiment and second guessing only. This in itself should create volatility so chopping in and out of trades should provide added profits. I've got mine set at 100 points either way.
Technicals:
Ftse 6000 resistance
Dax 7600 resistance
Dow 13,000 resistance/rejection
S&P 1400 resistance/rejection
If the above technical resistance/rejection levels should breach then I shall look to exit and reverse bet using ftse 100 for the same value per point.
Please also note that I do several trades and do not post them all, these are mainly smaller trades on smaller time frames. As I do post, any of the trades can run into a loss and for anyone that thinks otherwise - I DO HAVE WRITEDOWNS - this is part of the business and unavoidable.
In 2013, some of us will turn a corner and start making money, some of us will start to take losses, some of us will disappear, change names,niks, or simply never to be seen again. Some will continue to feed their accounts whilst others will happily take money out. Hell knows, I may even be one of those that pop, this is why its crucial to constantly take money out and spend on something solid. NEVER TOP UP - if you blow then paper trade until you have the solution. Nothing lasts for ever, whether you have money or not.
See screenshot for added verification of trade.
PS: If you're wondering about the 3 decimal points on the average - dont ask. I don't know why it has 3 decimal points attached to the trade, I can only figure its due to the size or IG's calculations, either way it does not affect the trades individually or as a whole, its just more accurate.
NOTE: I have no need to photo shop so please save your accusations as these are usually borne out of either jealousy or the lack of being able to execute financially viable trades. Unless you have viable and true evidence please save these accusations as you will only embarrass yourself. Cheers
For the others - Good luck for 2013.
Lee Shepherd
