Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

[Sidekicker]

This is torture !!! am long again .... my money flow indicator shows huge divergence on all timesclaes now....

I don't doubt that there will be a dead cat bounce somewhere but really, what's the thinking in going long at the moment? The market is in risk off mode and has been for at least 2 weeks...

 

[SuddenDeath]

morning... another day in paradise !! market having puke early doors, are we set for a grind back up this afternoon ?

the drop in ftse was to catch up with dow which had fallen a lot after london closed,

5400 = dow unchanged

BARC had nice reversal this is bullish sign it was up while almost everything was down

 

[DaddyJohn]

I don't doubt that there will be a dead cat bounce somewhere but really, what's the thinking in going long at the moment? The market is in risk off mode and has been for at least 2 weeks...

with respect , that's my business SK... .... I have my own system which has delivered me 54% return so far this year.. so am happy to stick with my approach..

I am sure other approaches deliver similar gains..

 

[SuddenDeath]

DaddyJohn GBPUSD making new lows must be almost 20 day low 1.5913 more pressure on indices? spiked lower at 10.30 uk time

 

[mat belton]

the drop in ftse was to catch up with dow which had fallen a lot after london closed,

5400 = dow unchanged

BARC had nice reversal this is bullish sign it was up while almost everything was down

thankfully Barclays performance today has helped me in a rather poor day.

 

[Sidekicker]

with respect , that's my business SK... .... I have my own system which has delivered me 54% return so far this year.. so am happy to stick with my approach..

I am sure other approaches deliver similar gains..

I wasn't having a go, sorry if it sounded that way. I'm just interested, that's all
It is a daily support area round here anyway...

 

[mat belton]

i spend most of my time trading a bear, but the recent Risk off i feel has been overdone, most companies have huge cash piles , the EFSF continues to build up a firewall (€960m yesterday) while uncertainly does always concern markets and there are many problems, the funds have dumped and are underweight again, i still see a decent move up

 

[SuddenDeath]

thankfully Barclays performance today has helped me in a rather poor day.

the price action of BARC today seems to indicate that sellers are exhausted, I hope the day improves, it can turn around in 1 minute.

I was wondering what would be a hedge for a BARC long, BNC short (santander)

 

[DaddyJohn]

I wasn't having a go, sorry if it sounded that way. I'm just interested, that's all
It is a daily support area round here anyway...

well,, I am was long DAX as soon as it hit 6297 this morning,, whihc is key support.. so was trading for the gap close which I got .. so entered at 6304 and closed half out 6359 ... the other half now has its stop at breakeven...

for me the risk reward was better to be long at this price... I may go short later.. but depends on where I see the best prospect for reward..

DAX may still go through my stop... but if this level holds then it has to go back up higher before thinking about any further lows.. and that would give me a very strong profit return...

as a scalper I dont really care if it is risk on or off.. just where the best reward is at any one moment in time...

 

[mat belton]

i would normally short Hsbc against Barc.. but they have already dropped 2.5% today (inline with HK)

 

[Sidekicker]

the price action of BARC today seems to indicate that sellers are exhausted, I hope the day improves, it can turn around in 1 minute.

I was wondering what would be a hedge for a BARC long, BNC short (santander)

I used to have a bit of software I developed myself which worked out the correlation of certain company stocks in the FTSE over a year or more...I'll dig this out at some point...I used to use it for pairs trading.
You can also do this in Excel if you can get the closing data for the FTSE stocks over the last year or more (Yahoo, etc.)

 

[SuddenDeath]

i spend most of my time trading a bear, but the recent Risk off i feel has been overdone, most companies have huge cash piles , the EFSF continues to build up a firewall (€960m yesterday) while uncertainly does always concern markets and there are many problems, the funds have dumped and are underweight again, i still see a decent move up

The VIX and VDAX (dax vix) indicate that the rally is possible since they both have breeched their upper bollingers, they are usually reliable

The VIX curve is does not indicate we have reached a bottom, think its still close to extreme contango

Although technically 5100 looks reasonable target from FTSE head shoulders and the big bear flag breaks in BLT and RIO indicate further weakness

 

[DaddyJohn]

The VIX and VDAX (dax vix) indicate that the rally is possible since they both have breeched their upper bollingers, they are usually reliable

The VIX curve is does not indicate we have reached a bottom, think its still close to extreme contango

Although technically 5100 looks reasonable target from FTSE head shoulders and the big bear flag breaks in BLT and RIO indicate further weakness

I agree SD.. I was checking out the VIX before the open and it does seem to have reached key resistance.. another reason why I am favouring long at the moment..

 

[mat belton]

I used to have a bit of software I developed myself which worked out the correlation of certain company stocks in the FTSE over a year or more...I'll dig this out at some point...I used to use it for pairs trading.
You can also do this in Excel if you can get the closing data for the FTSE stocks over the last year or more (Yahoo, etc.)

ok thanks

 

[SuddenDeath]

I used to have a bit of software I developed myself which worked out the correlation of certain company stocks in the FTSE over a year or more...I'll dig this out at some point...I used to use it for pairs trading.
You can also do this in Excel if you can get the closing data for the FTSE stocks over the last year or more (Yahoo, etc.)

That is great thanks. I do not normally pairs trade but I hear its the way to go and very low risk,

 

[Sidekicker]

That is great thanks. I do not normally pairs trade but I hear its the way to go and very low risk,

Debateable. I can show you a number of pairs trade trades that go wrong and you have to call it a day on your trade at some point, there are dividends to consider too, ie if the dividend on your short side of the pair costs you more than the income from the long side and dividends at different times of the year, also have to consider the financing costs on not to get too leveraged.
It's based on standard deviations between the stocks (eg BP/Shell, BARC/HSBC, Pepsi/Coke, etc.)

For example, you wouldn't want to get caught up in a spread trade like this:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-42940243/spike-in-vw-share-price-pounds-short-sellers/

Doesn't happen often but could...

 

[SuddenDeath]

Charles Biderman of trimtabs says that once the facebook ipo goes public on friday a stock market rally will occur. He says that facebook ipo has forced companies to raise cash by selling stocks and once that is done we can move higher
Biderman's Daily Edge 5/14/2012: Stocks & Gold Should Rally Post Facebook IPO - YouTube

 

[mat belton]

That is great thanks. I do not normally pairs trade but I hear its the way to go and very low risk,

i find it can be lower risk but also long dated, pairs can take weeks to work, and correlations are currently up in the air. I use indices to hedge especially when i want to long of high beta names

 

[SuddenDeath]

i find it can be lower risk but also long dated, pairs can take weeks to work, and correlations are currently up in the air. I use indices to hedge especially when i want to long of high beta names

thanks for that, i better stick to finding direction in the indices. I was reading about the strategy that lost JPM $2bill, very complex stuff.

 

[mat belton]

thanks for that, i better stick to finding direction in the indices. I was reading about the strategy that lost JPM $2bill, very complex stuff.

ha .. yes, they play with a few more $ than me