Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
well sir, I just now discovered that 6650 is not a resistance 😆😆😆
SuddenDeath
Legendary member
- Messages
- 14,063
- Likes
- 143
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dow index 30 min
we had 2 downmoves before it recoiled
horizontal res looming
we had 2 downmoves before it recoiled
horizontal res looming
Dick Lexic
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,954
- Likes
- 124
you can have my vote as well jessi since you are a nice chap🙂
i hope your "bullish Feb theme" works out but i suspect there are a few heavily short on here and they won't be too uncomfortable at the moment...
i will post my lexic waves chart later and all will be clear 😆
Dick Lexic
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,954
- Likes
- 124
The waves stack up so far …
the ftse shows a clear 5 wave pattern on the 4 hour chart so I may have it wrong on the dow ...i took the first wave from the impulse move off the fib level on the chart ...right or wrong if it's a C or a 3 or a 5 they all indicate a down move next ...i'd be happy with a new high first tho ....the original count has wave four support at 15718 however if the bulls are in then maybe 40/50 area....both last months low and the h&s base line at 15660 are critical but i'm bullish for now...
once again heap big volume on the dow ...make um eyes water :red_india
the ftse shows a clear 5 wave pattern on the 4 hour chart so I may have it wrong on the dow ...i took the first wave from the impulse move off the fib level on the chart ...right or wrong if it's a C or a 3 or a 5 they all indicate a down move next ...i'd be happy with a new high first tho ....the original count has wave four support at 15718 however if the bulls are in then maybe 40/50 area....both last months low and the h&s base line at 15660 are critical but i'm bullish for now...
once again heap big volume on the dow ...make um eyes water :red_india
Attachments
SuddenDeath
Legendary member
- Messages
- 14,063
- Likes
- 143
http://pragcap.com/5-things-to-ponder-market-correction-over-or-just-starting
“Hedge funds have been borrowing money in Japan (again) at very low Japanese interest rates, obviously denominated in yen. They then convert those yen to, say, the Brazilian real, Argentine peso, Turkish lira, etc. and buy Brazilian bonds or Turkish bonds using 10:1+ leverage. Accordingly, when such countries jacked up interest rates overnight, their bond markets collapsed. Concurrently, their currencies swooned, causing the ‘hot money’ investors to not only lose on their leveraged bond positions, but on the currency as well. If you are leveraged when that happens, the losses add up quickly and those positions need to be sold. So the bonds were sold, and the pesos/lira/real that were freed up from those sales had to be converted back into yen (at currency losses) to pay back the Japanese loans. And as the bonds/currencies crashed, the ‘pile on’ effect exaggerated the downside dive.”
“Hedge funds have been borrowing money in Japan (again) at very low Japanese interest rates, obviously denominated in yen. They then convert those yen to, say, the Brazilian real, Argentine peso, Turkish lira, etc. and buy Brazilian bonds or Turkish bonds using 10:1+ leverage. Accordingly, when such countries jacked up interest rates overnight, their bond markets collapsed. Concurrently, their currencies swooned, causing the ‘hot money’ investors to not only lose on their leveraged bond positions, but on the currency as well. If you are leveraged when that happens, the losses add up quickly and those positions need to be sold. So the bonds were sold, and the pesos/lira/real that were freed up from those sales had to be converted back into yen (at currency losses) to pay back the Japanese loans. And as the bonds/currencies crashed, the ‘pile on’ effect exaggerated the downside dive.”
Dick Lexic
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,954
- Likes
- 124
January was a huge monster of a move..i think we need at least end Feb to gauge
DaddyJohn
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,375
- Likes
- 9
FTSE thoughts
Hi.. 4 hr chart shows FTSE bouncing off this nice inside trend line... also the fib works well.... however..this wasnt the low I was expecting before the push up to 7000+ .... it is more than easy to expand that fib and get very good price confirmation for a 6281 low... however..my track record recently on FTSE hgihs and lows has not been fantastic..so will play long for now based on comments above..
Hope you are all well,
Hi.. 4 hr chart shows FTSE bouncing off this nice inside trend line... also the fib works well.... however..this wasnt the low I was expecting before the push up to 7000+ .... it is more than easy to expand that fib and get very good price confirmation for a 6281 low... however..my track record recently on FTSE hgihs and lows has not been fantastic..so will play long for now based on comments above..
Hope you are all well,
Attachments
Dick Lexic
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,954
- Likes
- 124
hi dj good to hear from you ... my charts are cash are you on futures charts?
Attachments
DaddyJohn
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,375
- Likes
- 9
Cash Dick....hope you are well my friend
DaddyJohn
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,375
- Likes
- 9
If you using MT4 then your cash charts will keep printing past 4.30pm I guess as it tracks futures...mine are only showing prints between 8am and 4.30pm Dick
Dick Lexic
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,954
- Likes
- 124
Dick Lexic
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,954
- Likes
- 124
mt4 is confusing me no end!...i love the drawing tools and some other stuff but to be honest the price levels are sus 👎
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
Week : 10th Feb to 14th Feb
Those who have witnessed the numbers like 16588 (DOW) and 6867 (FTSE), still have memories of the party. Some were part of the party and returned home with a return gift. Those who could not join the party felt like betrayed by their best friend.
Two reversal Bar (5th and 6th Feb) will make those who missed the party, feel invited again.
Those who already tested the taste of blood are now addicted. These two theme will drive the market next week.
People who have shorted the market in the hope of break out support line (Green line in chart) are now feeling the heat because of those two reversal bar. They will have 2nd thought over the weekend.
Again, there are no big driver currently to push the market further down. The driver for the up move is that "market is cheap just get on it ASAP", as stated above.
I expect market to be choppy near 6600 as thats the shorting point as well. The theme remains the same as I stated in my last analysis... which is Choppy, stops will be taken easily.
Expect good enough consolidation near 6600 with bullish bias, before market break outs above 6600. Sharp move down occasionally is not ruled out. That will scare people and will not fit in any kind of technical analysis. Those sharp pull down would be buying opportunity in my opinion.
Two or Three days consolidation (Mon-Wed) would not surprise me.
Markets seems to like 6675 - 6775 area as it feels at home. This is where it has spent most of the time.
For FTSE and DOW see Green and red line in chart (Blue/Red in Resistance chart), this is where market is seems to be heading.
FTSE Daily Chart
FTSE Daily Chart - Resistance
DOW Daily Chart
And if this is helpful and you like it, please vote yay or nay 👍 👎
Those who have witnessed the numbers like 16588 (DOW) and 6867 (FTSE), still have memories of the party. Some were part of the party and returned home with a return gift. Those who could not join the party felt like betrayed by their best friend.
Two reversal Bar (5th and 6th Feb) will make those who missed the party, feel invited again.
Those who already tested the taste of blood are now addicted. These two theme will drive the market next week.
People who have shorted the market in the hope of break out support line (Green line in chart) are now feeling the heat because of those two reversal bar. They will have 2nd thought over the weekend.
Again, there are no big driver currently to push the market further down. The driver for the up move is that "market is cheap just get on it ASAP", as stated above.
I expect market to be choppy near 6600 as thats the shorting point as well. The theme remains the same as I stated in my last analysis... which is Choppy, stops will be taken easily.
Expect good enough consolidation near 6600 with bullish bias, before market break outs above 6600. Sharp move down occasionally is not ruled out. That will scare people and will not fit in any kind of technical analysis. Those sharp pull down would be buying opportunity in my opinion.
Two or Three days consolidation (Mon-Wed) would not surprise me.
Markets seems to like 6675 - 6775 area as it feels at home. This is where it has spent most of the time.
For FTSE and DOW see Green and red line in chart (Blue/Red in Resistance chart), this is where market is seems to be heading.
FTSE Daily Chart
FTSE Daily Chart - Resistance
DOW Daily Chart
And if this is helpful and you like it, please vote yay or nay 👍 👎
Last edited:
Dick Lexic
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,954
- Likes
- 124
jessi your fan lines are like little lighthouse beams ....searching out to sea and guiding us through the rocky waves ....but we all no it could be **** and it tanks from here ...ha ha 🙂
mine included h ha ha
still it is good fun and that's what it's all about ...thanks again
mine included h ha ha
still it is good fun and that's what it's all about ...thanks again
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
Thanks DL, much appreciated.
Thanks for motivating me to write again.
as far as fan is concern, see red and blue.... first three red from bottom and first three blue from top.
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
Thanks Higherorlower , superstunner , paszkman , SuddenDeath , Dick Lexic , TechTD...
Much appreciated. 🙂
Much appreciated. 🙂
dax morning
some thoughts on the dax for this morning..
Daily chart could have the trend line as a support again, this time at a nice round number 9300.
4hr Chart shows 9300 was a good support and then resistance at the end of january..
Dax previous close was 9301, so if the 9am (8amUK) open is not higher than 9348 (0.5%), then could be an idea to short this to previous close, with a stop above R1 which is 9353..
Criticisms and comments welcome! 👍
some thoughts on the dax for this morning..
Daily chart could have the trend line as a support again, this time at a nice round number 9300.
4hr Chart shows 9300 was a good support and then resistance at the end of january..
Dax previous close was 9301, so if the 9am (8amUK) open is not higher than 9348 (0.5%), then could be an idea to short this to previous close, with a stop above R1 which is 9353..
Criticisms and comments welcome! 👍
Attachments
P
postman
Morning All.
Nice idea but be prepared to have your fingers burnt shorting the Dax, I know I have. Please dont let me put you off, especially when you have such clear targets and stops. No one on here 'knows' what that Dax is going to do this morning.
Last edited by a moderator:
