Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

[Mornington Crescent]

MC - there are several occasions when I miss stuff and this is one. Which expiry did you mean? There must be something expiring today but I haven't found it. It's not an index future.

I was referring to December Expiry which is still someway down the road

but too far probably for day trade thread

see post 3434

 

[dc2000]

I just found it interesting how the numbers worked so well, sometimes the simple logic works the best

absolutely and its interesting you convert to percentage if there is one button on my calculator thats worn its the % button

 

[MartinC-J]

I just found it interesting how the numbers worked so well, sometimes the simple logic works the best

DJ - so you are projecting a level matching the previous drop of 21.25%. Is there anything else that gives you the number 4526?

On the daily chart, I have today's pa as a pullback and retrace to a moving average. I prefer the 20 EMA or 50EMA which are currently at 5333 and 5365 for the FTSEZ1. Or to a Fib level and I prefer to use 38% for a normal trend, but this was a strong move down so pullbacks tend to be more exaggerated so 50% or even 61.8%.

I'm having trouble deciding which swing high to use. You could use the major high from 27 Oct at 5763.5, or the Nov 8th high at 5641 or the most recent swing high on 14th Nov at 5576.5.

Using the most recent swing high, we've already done 38%. 50% is at 5322.8 and 61.8% is at 5382.5. My guess is we'll do the 50% and bounce off there. It's also close to the last swing low at 5327. There's also the major swing low from Nov 1st at 5312.5. So somewhere between 5312.5 and 5327 we should get a bounce and continuation down.

DC has a higher figure above 5400, and he is more likely to be right than me. He has a time machine and I don't. Woolies had sold out by the time I got there.

 

[fletchie]

Martin

I had the Oct 27th on my chart so was looking for 38% at 5335 or 50% at 5417

I was going to look for a rollover or reverse signal from the lowest to the 50% at these levels

If so ( and assuming I have it right ) that would put the 50% of most recent swing high( 5322.8 as you state above ) near the38 % of the Oct 27th move

I hpe there is a clear reversal around there as it could be a nice move down

f

 

[DaddyJohn]

I thought price would have come back a little further , perhaps to 5244/53.. but it is holding up there so far boys

 

[reksa]

I am working it the same as you Martin. I'm using all 3 highs to the recent low. I do think we stand a good chance of resistance there. Do you look for significant levels that match up. Like 5429

 

[MartinC-J]

Martin

I had the Oct 27th on my chart so was looking for 38% at 5335 or 50% at 5417

I was going to look for a rollover or reverse signal from the lowest to the 50% at these levels

If so ( and assuming I have it right ) that would put the 50% of most recent swing high( 5322.8 as you state above ) near the38 % of the Oct 27th move

I hpe there is a clear reversal around there as it could be a nice move down

f

Fletch - I'd be happy using the 27th Oct swing high too, but I was always told to take the high from where the most recent price action is. And that goes for drawing all fib retracements, whether on a daily, hourly or 5 min chart.

Yeah, let's hope we get a clear signal for the reversal and it doesn't happen overnight or lost in some eurobabble news.

 

[MartinC-J]

I am working it the same as you Martin. I'm using all 3 highs to the recent low. I do think we stand a good chance of resistance there. Do you look for significant levels that match up. Like 5429

Mark, they always say if you get confirmation from several time frames it makes a stronger case for your argument. My only caveat this week is that we still have a load of eurobabble to deal with this week. There are ECOFIN meetings on wednesday, and clearly stuff going on behind the scenes regarding Italian debt. I think most people are expecting a continuation of last weeks down move at some stage.

We have US ISM manufacturing number on thursday, and I think it will beat expectations, and if Non-Farms can support this on friday, then we will likely see DC's 5400 number. After that, it should be down, but you never know.

 

[dc2000]

I thought price would have come back a little further , perhaps to 5244/53.. but it is holding up there so far boys

theres time yet 246 was my pullback target even though the 296 was missed

Martin the higher number is not set yet, 426 is though


The woolworths thing reminds me
when DJ mentioned pippa I must admit I had not a clue but saw the magazine shelf in tesco at the weekend Doh! I now assume it was pippa middleton, I must get out more

 

[dc2000]

if Non-Farms can support this on friday, then we will likely see DC's 5400 number.

friday! I wanted it tomorrow or wednesday morning latest

 

[DaddyJohn]

DJ - so you are projecting a level matching the previous drop of 21.25%. Is there anything else that gives you the number 4526?

On the daily chart, I have today's pa as a pullback and retrace to a moving average. I prefer the 20 EMA or 50EMA which are currently at 5333 and 5365 for the FTSEZ1. Or to a Fib level and I prefer to use 38% for a normal trend, but this was a strong move down so pullbacks tend to be more exaggerated so 50% or even 61.8%.

I'm having trouble deciding which swing high to use. You could use the major high from 27 Oct at 5763.5, or the Nov 8th high at 5641 or the most recent swing high on 14th Nov at 5576.5.

Using the most recent swing high, we've already done 38%. 50% is at 5322.8 and 61.8% is at 5382.5. My guess is we'll do the 50% and bounce off there. It's also close to the last swing low at 5327. There's also the major swing low from Nov 1st at 5312.5. So somewhere between 5312.5 and 5327 we should get a bounce and continuation down.

DC has a higher figure above 5400, and he is more likely to be right than me. He has a time machine and I don't. Woolies had sold out by the time I got there.

Martin , you might recall an earlier post of mine where I mentioned that the price action we are seeing now is almost identical to that what we saw play out from Oct 2007 to June 2008.. so far the % swings from highs to lows have been almost identical to 0.5% tolerance.. if I continue with the logic it gets me to 4526.. which does coincide with major support..

 

[DaddyJohn]

theres time yet 246 was my pullback target even though the 296 was missed

Martin the higher number is not set yet, 426 is though


The woolworths thing reminds me
when DJ mentioned pippa I must admit I had not a clue but saw the magazine shelf in tesco at the weekend Doh! I now assume it was pippa middleton, I must get out more

doh !! get with the scene man .....

 

[dc2000]

if we take the pullback as done at 64s then that puts todays high at 5361.3

 

[Mornington Crescent]

I have a gap around 5332 and it looks like it wants to get filled today

any help to anyone ?

 

[DaddyJohn]

if we take the pullback as done at 64s then that puts todays high at 5361.3

yes, but I am worried that this has gone too far , too early for my likening to hold into the US cash open

 

[DaddyJohn]

1192 was the most I expected ES at today

 

[reksa]

I have a gap around 5332 and it looks like it wants to get filled today

any help to anyone ?

What date was this? Cash or futures?
Thanks

 

[Mornington Crescent]

What date was this? Cash or futures?
Thanks

Futures
Nov 21

 

[DaddyJohn]

What date was this? Cash or futures?
Thanks

I have been looking at that too... just would like to see more of a pull back

 

[Sidekicker]

Surely the heavier res area for a reversal is 5350?
...but we're into Xmas rally time anyway.