Anyone know what happened to crude in the wee hours?

[Atilla]

The ever fiddled EIA numbers come to the rescue.

Why has oil gone up again?

I don't think much of this summer driving business as the explanation?

I reckon people will stay put as they have no money to go on long drive holidays. Too busy trying to make mortgage payments.

The way I see it is just like there is a whole spectrum of financial assets there are a spectrum of public with their similar financial positions.

So as well as all those failures in defaults there are probably equal number of people struggling to make payment just managing to stay afloat up to their necks.

Bloomberg say the cause is due to some Nigerian election candidate...?

What's up... Anybody know.

 

[Hook Shot]

As you know Atilla driving season does "tend" to play a role in oil price movements..... smiley. Although this time there are other things on OIL's mind it seems.

However, what I really want to know is.... this thing is now almost one week old.. What ..... are the Iranian's playing at ? They take a hard line and the international community's line will harden - it looks now like whoever blinks first has lost...
Big head scratcher really.........how can Iran and/or UK/UN get out of this without losing face ?

 

[Crap Buddist]

As you know Atilla driving season does "tend" to play a role in oil price movements..... smiley. Although this time there are other things on OIL's mind it seems.

However, what I really want to know is.... this thing is now almost one week old.. What ..... are the Iranian's playing at ? They take a hard line and the international community's line will harden - it looks now like whoever blinks first has lost...
Big head scratcher really.........how can Iran and/or UK/UN get out of this without losing face ?

hmmm down to the west to deliver a super power move isnt it ? The mighty West, All these people in suits, having tea and bikkies pondering on the best action to take ...

No doubt Iran will be thinking to hell with them, we confuse even ourselves at times..... one week, one month, why hurry, why worry....

why not leave it to the Generals of war, I mean whoever is the bigwig of MOD turn to him and say o.k your show get the soldiers back.

One thing though Tony Blair is talking tough, apart from saying immediately , when requesting the troops back, now its or else the next phase...

Whats that Tony, your next phase, "Immediately ,Please" .is it.

OK so maybe these things take time to organise, but why not sail into Iran. ? Send the boats in.

I did like the photo of some army bloke on the edge of a helicopter showing the gps system as evidence .

I tell ya mrs thatcher mate, she would of had em swinging on the gallows by dawn...

What if it was American soldiers captured ? our T.V's would of been lit up like the fourth o july by now , shock and awe part deux. Maybe its reasuring there is a delay.

 

[Hook Shot]

I read with interest CB ........... are you saying get in and get the soldiers back - asap ?

 

[Atilla]

As you know Atilla driving season does "tend" to play a role in oil price movements..... smiley. Although this time there are other things on OIL's mind it seems.

However, what I really want to know is.... this thing is now almost one week old.. What ..... are the Iranian's playing at ? They take a hard line and the international community's line will harden - it looks now like whoever blinks first has lost...
Big head scratcher really.........how can Iran and/or UK/UN get out of this without losing face ?

Yes HS, but driving season will not be the same this year for the reasons I outlined below. Nobody is going on holiday, no one will be moving homes. Everybody will be sweating buckets and paying off debt and worrying about the future.

Iranians are saying their borders were violated in six different areas by UK forces. They claim they have it on film which we may get to see.

As for Blair I would impeach him along with Bush. Iraqis question what the UK troops were doing in those waters as nobody goes there? I'm really cheesed off with sabre rattling.

Normal reaction of the UK is to negotiate. Blair has been very quick along with the US in drumming up military action against Iran. What's different in this case?

Just when Iranians have said they will release the female prisoner and allow hostages to be visited, UK troops sorround the Iranian consulate and start firing weapons.

I think the whole thing is engineered by UK and US governments. Forgive me for being cynical.

US has been itching for this and if it doesn't act it will lose face. UK and Iran are just pure fodder imo.

1. Pentagon have to use up their weapons to sell them.
2. They have to divert attention from domestic issues. Budget defecits.
3. Protect the $.
4. Nuclear weapons indeed... Make the world a safer place to live.

International community is against US and UK? We get sanitized news. Russia and China are supporting Iran and no such thing as agreeing on UN votes. All lies. Don't know where our governments get their news from. Forget the embargo of goods and services, Russia are currently providing all sorts of US troop movement intelligence to Iran. It's apparently withdrawn it's citizens from Iran too.

Milosowich thought he was building a greater Serbia and he decimated the country and Serbia.

I feel US is so hell bent on war it has already sadly decimated the honour and dignity of its marines and now in the process of decimating it's economy and soon the $.

I'm expecting the worse tomorrow and will be shorting the SPX big time. Gold and Oil very speculative at the mo.

I'm still confused about oil. Given the scenario I'm surprised it's not $80+. I may try going long tomorrow. $3 Jump today that's some 300 pips for people with big purses and big b0ll0cks.

I'm not happy at all. And I'm not talking about my +7 pips today.

 

[Crap Buddist]

I read with interest CB ........... are you saying get in and get the soldiers back - asap ?

Yes, they have kidnapped 15 British soldiers and they are being held hostage?

The mission has to be, to rescue the hostages, to rescue the hostages.

Beckett has been doing her best maggie thatch impression by using terms like immediately, but Mrs Thatch, I feel would of added, else we'll jolly well come and get them ourselves. LOL.

Tony Blair , I get the sense that what is dawning to him, is something very dreadful looming ahead. Almost like when as kids if youve ever had that feeling of an impending fist fight coming up, that you cannot simply avoid.

 

[Hook Shot]

Yes, they have kidnapped 15 British soldiers and they are being held hostage?

The mission has to be, to rescue the hostages, to rescue the hostages.

Beckett has been doing her best maggie thatch impression by using terms like immediately, but Mrs Thatch, I feel would of added, else we'll jolly well come and get them ourselves. LOL.

Tony Blair , I get the sense that what is dawning to him, is something very dreadful looming ahead. Almost like when as kids if youve ever had that feeling of an impending fist fight coming up, that you cannot simply avoid.

Sorry CB I wasn't being dumb for a change - it's just that rescuing the hostages may involve a new WAR!!! So as a trader I'm trying to piece together the profit puzzle...

Bonds are cheaper than they have been.... European Indices are relatively strong and may not react well to escalation - and may be opportunity... that's really what was behind the question.

Thanks for response

 

[Hook Shot]

posted by Atilla.

I think the whole thing is engineered by UK and US governments. Forgive me for being cynical.

US has been itching for this and if it doesn't act it will lose face. UK and Iran are just pure fodder imo.

Atilla - this all smells fishy to me too ..... pretty much the same way I felt when I heard the news about woolmer found unconscious in hotel room. And....... for that matter when that warlord was killed in Afghanistan the weekend before 911.... I didn't and don't follow Afghan politics but the killing of that warlord just felt -strangely significant .

Having said all of that I'm working out what opportunities are still on the table for me as a trader :cheesy:

 

[Atilla]

posted by Atilla.


Atilla - this all smells fishy to me too ..... pretty much the same way I felt when I heard the news about woolmer found unconscious in hotel room. And....... for that matter when that warlord was killed in Afghanistan the weekend before 911.... I didn't and don't follow Afghan politics but the killing of that warlord just felt -strangely significant .

Having said all of that I'm working out what opportunities are still on the table for me as a trader :cheesy:

My view fwiw...

Sell SPX & DOW
Sell $ buy
EurUsd
Buy Oil & Gold - Highly speculative
Buy defensive stock, utiliities; energy and water and tescos with good dividends...

Be interested in everyone elses view too...

 

[mickandpete]

If you are suggesting what trading action to take in the event of war with Iran here is one course to follow
Concentrate on OIL
The first action the Iranians will take is to close the Straits of Hormuz
Straits shut Oil $100 +
If we see that level SELL US$ buy Can$ with every single penny u possess

 

[Hook Shot]

If you are suggesting what trading action to take in the event of war with Iran here is one course to follow
Concentrate on OIL
The first action the Iranians will take is to close the Straits of Hormuz
Straits shut Oil $100 +
If we see that level SELL US$ buy Can$

MAP - I like the long CAD trade hadn't thought of that one.
Long oil agree but ........... we need a pbk - obviously...... and we're not really getting it... after this weeks spike after hours we got one but now .........

I will be scanning for oil stocks in UK tonight though........

 

[inggscap]

Signals this side for the black goo looks headed up this week... tensions might rise even more. A lot of satellite activity over there along with Russian intelligence mentioning that US forces are around the Iranian border, next 2 weeks are going to be interesting...

 

[Atilla]

I'm bearish on oil as I think the peace drums are banging in the ME.

I can't see the US going into war which is going to cause it's down fall in terms of the $ and economics of it all. US has already spent $500bn and having trouble drumming up $130bn just to maintain troops in Iraq & Afghanistan for another year. If another front is opened with Iran it will cost it considerably more than $500bn I reckon.

Not only that it is losing all it's allies and the loss of the $ as a petro currency coupled with inflation and BoP defecits will see it's end.

Even in Saudi Arabia reformists are calling for change coupled with Gulf countries dropping the $ along with every other goverment.

I simply don't believe that force is the answer to US problems and it's precisely force that has got it into this mess.

Hence, peace will break out like the sunshine bursting through the dark clouds and markets will surge.

In summary, I'm up for thinking the war dividend from oil will soon be removed and we will be back down to 64 - 65 levels.

 

[inggscap]

I also hope they don't go to war but when you look at how the US is run like a commercial military arm, similar to the old days in Greece etc., taking over an opponent is money and just fills that gap that you spent on hardware to get there. If they had to bring Iran down, take over it's oil reserves, that's more than 500 billion. Possibly worth the shot when looking through their eyes, also deters others from following them changing to Petroeuro. But I don't like trying to read them because it's all propaganda, actions speak louder so we'll see what happens, hopefully it calms down, both sides (UK and Iran) are being idiots here, hopefully each will get some candy and shut up... that we'd be so lucky.

 

[Atilla]

I also hope they don't go to war but when you look at how the US is run like a commercial military arm, similar to the old days in Greece etc., taking over an opponent is money and just fills that gap that you spent on hardware to get there. If they had to bring Iran down, take over it's oil reserves, that's more than 500 billion. Possibly worth the shot when looking through their eyes, also deters others from following them changing to Petroeuro. But I don't like trying to read them because it's all propaganda, actions speak louder so we'll see what happens, hopefully it calms down, both sides (UK and Iran) are being idiots here, hopefully each will get some candy and shut up... that we'd be so lucky.

Oh well, gone short at 65.31 for May USCrudeOil. SL 65.50. Target $65.00 or less.

 

[Atilla]

This is great. Oil taking a dive.... Currently 64.92. Anybody else betting on peace dividend on oil?

 

[Atilla]

Just read piece of news that said two US bombers violated Iran air space...

Closed short pos on oil at 64.93.

Still hairy experience this peace by the seat of your pants business... :cheesy:

 

[trendie]

intersting article on selective attacks to disrupt supplies and affect prices. Scary stuff.

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/The_Future_Of_al_Qaida_999.html
......"Al-Qaida does its homework. According to one report, "A recent post on a password-protected Internet forum affiliated with al-Qaida asserted that attacks on Saudi oil pipelines would have a greater effect on the United States than a chemical weapons attack by creating 'a big economic disaster for the American public.'" This is borne out by studies suggesting that a moderate-to-severe attack on the Abqaiq facility could cut Saudi output by more than 4 million barrels a day for several months, pushing oil prices to more than $100 a barrel." ....

 

[Atilla]

intersting article on selective attacks to disrupt supplies and affect prices. Scary stuff.

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/The_Future_Of_al_Qaida_999.html
......"Al-Qaida does its homework. According to one report, "A recent post on a password-protected Internet forum affiliated with al-Qaida asserted that attacks on Saudi oil pipelines would have a greater effect on the United States than a chemical weapons attack by creating 'a big economic disaster for the American public.'" This is borne out by studies suggesting that a moderate-to-severe attack on the Abqaiq facility could cut Saudi output by more than 4 million barrels a day for several months, pushing oil prices to more than $100 a barrel." ....

Yes very interesting article.

Al_Qaida and other terrorists are too stupid to realise that though and we shouldn't give them ideas. They are more interested in their blood lust of killing innocent civilians - dumb ass fokers that they are...

I'm in the opinion if the US and Saudies really wanted this guy they could have caught him long time ago now.

 

[Hook Shot]

Oil bounces back well after only two days down..... so far!
Considering hostage releases ............... oil is very very strong.....
Mild pullback means bully goes on ......... for new swing highs...... probably.