NYMEX Crude Contract At Risk of Falling in Next 24 Hours

[CFDTrading]

NYMEX Crude Contract At Risk of Falling in Next 24 Hours

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst

Cfdtrading.com provides free FX news, trading resources, and market analysis to the forex trading community.

Short-Term Technical Forecast for Crude Oil

NYMEX Crude oil recently hit the top of its very recent trading channel and reversed, showing signs that it may continue to correct recent strength through near-term trade. Indeed, a finish below key resistance at 70.50 leaves our previously bearish bias intact, and further downside targets would include previous resistance at 68.75. Whether or not oil may continue its recent advance may very well depend on the coming 24 hours of NYMEX trading.

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Cfdtrading.com provides free FX news, trading resources, and market analysis to the forex trading community.

 

[£10kLoser]

Since crude has been swinging between $60 and $70 for the last 10 or 11 days, that's a fair bet!

 

[advfntrader]

how do you guys trade crude ? any tips ?

 

[£10kLoser]

I trade crude for a living and have my own website on the subject. As a system seller, I am not allowed to promote it but since you asked a direct question I suggest you look at my profile and find out!

 

[montmorencyt2w]

I trade crude for a living and have my own website on the subject. As a system seller, I am not allowed to promote it but since you asked a direct question I suggest you look at my profile and find out!

Interesting. I've had a quick look at the website. I can believe what you say about Oil being more predictable (& therefore more profitable) than currency (I've even made a small amount myself this week out of it - maybe I just got lucky). After all, apart from all the technical analysis etc, it tends to move in ways that relate to the real world very often, which we can all learn about and understand.

However, and all due respect and all that, but I have to ask what people who sell systems must always be asked: why do you bother to sell a system when you can just sit back and rake in cash from your trades? I can come up with 2 possible answers that I have seen before:

1) (From people who write books and give courses, etc): Some people find that by teaching others, it actually helps to improve their own understanding and trading. It also makes a change from the routine of trading

2) Under UK rules, profit from spread-betting is not taxable. However, I have seen someone claim that if your only income is from spread-betting, then HMRC will come after you anyway. I don't know the full SP on that. But if true, then having a regular, taxable, up-front income may protect the (presumably more lucrative) trading.

p.s. are there any particular pros and cons of trading on Brent Crude versus WTI Crude? From the amateur's eye, they appear to move more or less in concert, but that is from casual observation only. Presumably "divergence" would be an interesting signal of its own.
Thanks,

 

[advfntrader]

if you system works then why not build up the amount per point and then make millions ? sorry for sounding skeptical, I am interested but have seen similar claims in the past that didn't always work

 

[£10kLoser]

I sell it for the reason stated on my website - I have hours and hours of free time and it's a bit of fun! I used to own a web design co back in the UK so have my own server and the cost of design/hosting is zero.

It's not so easy to crank up the pounds per point when you use SB companies. I prefer to stay under the radar. It costs me about £600 a month to live in luxury here in Malta and I really don't need any more money. I easily make more than that, of course but not big money at all. No family or wife to support and I'll be 60 in March! Been most places done most things (including owning my own plane) and have a property back in the UK with no mortgage.

Yes, I understand the idea of making millions and I've traded at £100 per pip in the past but that's fine when you're young. Surely, the ultimate aim of trading is to have everything you want AND an easy life. I have both those things which makes me as rich as anyone on the planet.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

10K: Your approach reminds me somewhat of Mark Shipman's. I don't know if he is/was as successful as he says he was/is, but there again, have no particular reason to doubt it.

Regards,
M.

 

[£10kLoser]

I was right!

Since crude has been swinging between $60 and $70 for the last 10 or 11 days, that's a fair bet!

Well, oil has fallen to $60 and levelled out. Now, if I'd had the sense to sell at $71 and hold until now, I'd have made a huge amount of money in under 36 hours.

1,000 pips at £10 a pip would have been nice.

Ahh, the wisdom of hindsight...

 

[advfntrader]

I guess the idea of making "big money" was what burnt me the 1st time round as I refused to take small losses and let them run!

your strategy of small but steady gains is appealing

 

[£10kLoser]

Answers to Unanswered Questions!

2) Under UK rules, profit from spread-betting is not taxable. However, I have seen someone claim that if your only income is from spread-betting, then HMRC will come after you anyway. I don't know the full SP on that. But if true, then having a regular, taxable, up-front income may protect the (presumably more lucrative) trading.

p.s. are there any particular pros and cons of trading on Brent Crude versus WTI Crude? From the amateur's eye, they appear to move more or less in concert, but that is from casual observation only. Presumably "divergence" would be an interesting signal of its own.
Thanks,[/QUOTE]

Sorry, I never answered these questions.

Spread betting is and never will be taxed under any circumstances. Claims to the contrary are just rumour. The reason it will never be taxed is that we all know more money is lost than won at spread betting. If gains were taxable, losses would be tax deductable and the IR would end up losing money. That is not going to happen!


I've never studied the differences between Brent and WTI. I presume WTI must be more tradable because it is more easily available word wide and is the most traded commodity in the world. Whether one could apply the same indicators and get the same results, i don't know...

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Brent and WTI do trade in line with each other. Brent is ICE traded, and WTI is Nymex (though the WTI on ICE is heavily traded too).

The arb between the two is actually a very interesting thing to observe. As Brent is representative of 'Euro' crude, and WTI American, changes that affect one area of the world more than another will widen / narrow the spread. Just as an example - though a rate cut in the UK would obviously strengthen the dollar and bring oil down - people in the Euro area may be more keen to sell just because of the proximity, so the brent may fall harder than the WTI, thus widening the spread. Another example is yesterday the Brent found psychological support at $60 for a time and the spread narrowed as WTI continued to come off.

I'm only talking the space of an hour for these sorts of things not long term - but I find it interesting nevertheless!

Anyway - I'm very hungover and should be nowhere near a trading screen today!!!! ha

Good luck people.

 

[guesslate]

what will oil do in the coming week ahead??

 

[£10kLoser]

Prediction is a fools game. We can only trade it hour by hour.