A Professional Approach to Trading Futures

[steven46]

We will provide this information on a one time basis
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The importance of the 17 Week Bill Auction

*While secondary to the FOMC minutes, poor demand for the 17 week Bill (Auction) at 10am ET, has the potential to significantly move
the market. If demand is seen to be low, it will likely cause a spike in yields, which would then result in immediate selling pressure
on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures. The move lower would occur within a few minutes after the result is released (and we would "go with")

 

[steven46]

Thanks TuscanSun for checking in (and of course for the "like")

Here is an interesting fact (for everyone). It is about a phenomenon known as
the "Overnight Drift" as researched by the New York Fed.

So first a professional note, for those who might want to become profitable traders
this game (and it is a competition) is all about finding and learning to make use of,
any and all, tradeable edges. This is ONE. There are others, and I am always searching
for these.

Making use of the tendency is up to the trader. I discovered that this algo works, not only
for this tendency but for many of the tradeable edges that form the basis of my hopefully
sustainable trading business.

I received a couple of skeptical comments saying that this is just a "statistical anomaly"
no kidding? I teach statistics, so for me this comical. I am not going into detail, but I can
tell you that it has survived the test of time. I will keep trading it (until it doesn't work).

Good luck

 

[steven46]

Early trading was positive and the 17 week Bill Auction was well received so the market
moved up. We attach a chart showing the early move. Readers should see a familiar pattern as we
continue to use the Algo that has worked well for us in the past and continues now. As always the risk bar
is the third bar, and entry on the open of the next bar, then you hold and manage the trade.

Now the wait until FOMC minutes at 2pm ET
and we have our scenarios ready as shown below
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Dovish Shift	Heavy focus on labor "downside risks" & dissenters' views.	Rally toward 6,950+
Hawkish Pause	Emphasis on "solid" growth & tariff-driven inflation.	Sell-off toward 100-day MA
Status Quo	"Meeting by meeting" approach; no new timeline.	Chop within existing range

[th]

Scenario​

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Fed Language​

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Likely ES Response​

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Data as of February 18, 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield currently sits at 4.08%