Hello London & Euro Traders
We will not be LiveStreaming our Weekend Preparation so it only seems appropriate
that we provide a sample for those who may want to subscribe in future. Interested
readers can start with the previous post, where we review what happened during
the previous week. In that post we use a weekly Pivot chart (which uses Wednesday
as its basis).
For the sake of brevity, the bottom line is that the markets moved
lower based on several factors, the most important of which is the anticipation that
the US Fed may decide not to lower interest rates.
Readers who follow along will see that we continue to monitor both the Daily and Weekly
time frames. On the Daily (posted below) we see an S&P 500 Futures Market that has created
what professionals call a potential "Major Trend Reversal" on the Daily Time Frame
That chart shows several trading opportunities for Swing Traders whose horizon is multiple days
to weeks. Readers can start on the right side at Oct 1st and continue to follow along to Nov 3rd
Along that path we see a 1) "Weak Low, followed by a higher high, and a "1-2-3" short setup
which is the first reasonable reversal entry that Swing Traders could take. That short entry would
have been filled at or near 6,866 and if held to its logical conclusion, would have exited at 6,665
approximately for a profit of 200 S&P pts (about $10,000 per contract before commissions).
2) The "Retest of the Weak Low" was an area where Institutions are likely to come in to buy what they
see as discounted value. They wait for price to revisit that range of prices and then drive the market back
up, thus creating a "Trading Range". Its the same as the previous trade only in reverse
3) The next opportunity occurs when price (once again) revisits the upper part of the trading range
so its a "back & forth" kind of trading action that professionals call a "Round Trip" with price moving between
extremes.
Next Week
Will price rebound? (its called a "Technical Rebound" and move higher, or will the market continue the "Major
Trend Reversal" outlined previously, as institutions become concerned about the US Fed decision, and as
previous economic data is released to the public. Consensus is that the previous data, as well as the new
data will point to a steadily weakening US economy, which of course would lead to a move down as institutions
take profits. This is our prediction.
Postscript
On our chart you may notice the text "Scan Left". This technique is useful because it provides advance warning
as to what is likely in terms of market direction. Simply put, when price tests an area where previously the market
reacted strongly (higher or lower), it will often do the same thing again.