A Professional Approach to Trading Futures

[steven46]

Here is a sample of our Weekly Discovery Process

We identify and evaluate high impact events as follows

1) Earning for Meta, Microsoft, Amazon & Apple are scheduled. Each one can have
significant effect on the markets. We look at the timing in terms of opportunity
and we have an algo that kicks in, allowing us to place trades after earnings are
released.
2) Federal Reserve will set rates. Again we use an algo process, that kicks in after the
decision is made
3) The "PCE" (Personal Consumption") considered by the FED to be critically important,
is scheduled to be released soon and that will have a potentially significant impact
on markets (as regards the decision to lower or maintain interest rates)
4) Jobs data will be released
5) Trumps tariffs deadline on Aug 1st

The general process is as follows

On a Saturday or Sunday, we start by planning each weekday starting with the 1) timing of
any significant earnings reports. This week Meta, Microsoft are reporting on Wednesday
and the others on Thursday (all after the close). We expect that Apple will beat estimates
because customers are buying product NOW to try to avoid having to pay a higher price
when tariffs kick in. The net effect could be a move higher for Apple (one example)

Interest Rate Decision is announced on Wednesday. We expect rates to stay the same

PCE is expected to show a rise of 2.3% to perhaps 2.6%. We expect those numbers to be exceeded
creating a possible opportunity on the short side.

Finally we expect the American president to announce trade deals and other items in an attempt
to distract from his problem with the Epstein files, and with the activation of tariffs. The net effect
is likely to be negative for the markets. We are planning for a possible retracement lower on the 30th July

Good luck

 

[steven46]

The retracement occurred during the London Session.
At the open of the NY session we saw the usual trading range
price action.
The 15 min system allowed us to slow down and monitor
for a single trade that could be held to a minimum of +5
The logic was simple. At this low, the market was overextended
This is what we define as a trade based on the first hour range
Now we wait for another setup during this 2nd hour of trading

Good Luck

 

[steven46]

US Fed Interest Rate Decision tomorrow and so
this is an unusual NY Session
We use a "Timed Entry" Algo that has worked
successfully over the years (and again today)
producing +10

Using 15 min candles makes entry much easier to see

Good Luck

 

[steven46]

And the 2nd entry, again it is based on an Algo
that I have used for several years.

As mentioned in a previous post, this system usually
provides two (2) trades and they tend to be swing trades
with profit target of +10

I usually leave a runner in place in case the position continues
In this case I did not, preferring to take profits and reduce risk
of "Sweeps". For those unfamiliar with the term, it is when an automated
program trade "sweeps the deck" buying or selling all available inventory
and it produces a very quick move (we saw one today). If you are on the
wrong side, there is no way to avoid a loss.

Good luck

 

[steven46]

Hello UK Traders

Today is "Fed Day" and for this event, we use a slightly different
system that we do not disclose, but do teach to our students
What we can say about it is as follows

1) It is a trading range system
2) It uses a single setup
3) It requires specific context and is very accurate
when executed with discipline.

As with our 15 minute system, we look for two (2)
winning trades and then we stop. The trade entries
are time specific (entries within a timing window)

We will attach one (1) chart and it will show two (2)
Ema's. It will NOT show a third indicator that I use for
confirmation

Good luck

 

[steven46]

I thought I would post this

Notice the attempt to breakout to the upside
and the timing (the Fed Announcement is pending
shortly). This is happening at a time when "informed"
participants are likely to position themselves in advance
of the news.

It would suggest that the Fed will lower rates slightly

Lets see what happens

Good luck

 

[steven46]

Normally we would fold our tent after the 2nd successful trade
and that is what we did today.
Coming back to the screen after lunch time (local USA time)
we noticed that President Trump had commented publicly about
the positive effects of his policies thus far (apparently the man is
practicing to be a stand up comedian after his term runs out)
and so monitored for a final trade opportunity at the end of the
session. We can disclose that this final hour trade occurs as the
result of a MOC order imbalance. Today that imbalance was on
the long side and was substantial, providing a low risk/big reward
entry as the institutions came in to buy at the close of the bar
The imbalance was in excess of 50,000 contracts. We have referred
to this previously. Professionals call it a "layup" and it resulted in
an extra 30 pts approximately

 

[steven46]

Hello UK traders

Here we are a day after the Fed Announcement and the market is
responding to the approach of more tariffs. As seen in the attached
charts, all is not well. Remember that the markets are "forward looking"
and what they see ahead is inflation as the tariffs kick in for many countries
and (for those unfamiliar with the logic) the damage to the US will be
substantial as consumers are forced to either pay more for imported products
or go without. Coffee for example, in our stores has gone up from about $8
to more than $11.

We took the obvious short entry and because of the timing, it was held to +10
The risk was reasonable and we will be very careful from this point forward,
monitoring until the end of session when the MOC orders come in. Based on
that data we will make a decision as to whether to trade the close or wait until
the next session.

Good luck

 

[steven46]

This news came in over the wire a few minutes ago

We show the immediate impact, as President Trump extends
timing of tariffs on good from Mexico for another 90 days
We should see a tradeable move based on this news

 

[steven46]

Here is the follow up to the previous announcement
of delay of tariffs on goods from Mexico

Notice that the market ran up +10 right away and like clockwork
traders took profits. Over the years we have seen this kind of response
many times.

We did not trade this (not possible to trade it and post) but wanted to
show it for those interested. As part of our class we show struggling traders
how to monitor news effectively using "key words" (just as the institutions do)
and this is how we would (under normal conditions) learn of tradeable events
hitting the news wires.

Postscript

We will post the setup for our new monitoring service. There are many, and we
are selective about it, using only one (1) keyword that we believe will be of high
impact to the market we trade (Attachment below)

 

[steven46]

And here is another update regarding the tariff news "event"

As can be seen, this news event trade is continuing and is now
approaching +20 pts

Important (in our opinion) to notice that Trump indicated that this
"deadline" would not be changed, and then suddenly he reverses
course. This is (as we are all seeing) simply the way this man operates
given this behavior we have good (valuable) insight as to how to trade
his "policies" going forward