Date: August 21, 2026
Executive Summary
The US dollar tumbled to 98.77-98.92 – its lowest level in three months – after the Treasury doubled its long-term bond buyback program, sending 30-year yields sharply lower. Gold surged over 4% to $4,519/oz, breaking above the 100-day MA at $4,382. Oil...
Date: August 20, 2026
Executive Summary
The US dollar crashed below 99.00, hitting its lowest level since late May, after the Treasury doubled its long-term bond buyback program, boosting USD liquidity and sending yields lower. Gold surged to $4,525/oz – its highest since early June – as lower...
Date: August 19, 2026
Executive Summary
The US dollar tumbled to a two-month low of 99.30 after weak retail sales data pushed September Fed hike odds down to 30.6%. Gold corrected to $4,350/oz as global bond yields surged, while oil rose 3% to $84/bbl amid escalating US-Iran tensions. The...
Date: August 18, 2026
Executive Summary
The US dollar extended its decline to a third straight session after weak US retail sales data reduced Fed rate hike expectations to ~33%. Gold recovered to $4,410/oz, supported by a weaker dollar and rising Middle East tensions. Oil surged toward $84/bbl...
Date: August 17, 2026
Executive Summary
The US dollar steadied below 100 after soft PPI and CPI data cooled Fed rate hike expectations to ~40%. Gold pulled back from a two-month high of $4,450, while oil gained nearly 6% for the week on geopolitical tensions. The ASX200 extended its weekly...
Date: August 14, 2026
Executive Summary
US inflation data met expectations, cooling Fed rate hike expectations and sending the September probability down to ~40%. Gold pulled back from a two-month high of $4,450, while the dollar remained steady near 100. Oil held near $81 as geopolitical...
Date: August 13, 2026
Executive Summary
US inflation data met expectations, cooling Fed rate hike odds and sending gold to a two-month high above $4,440/oz. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed near record highs, driven by surging AI stocks following strong earnings from CoreWeave and Super Micro...
Date: August 12, 2026
Executive Summary
Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of tonight's US CPI data, the most important release of the week. Gold hit $4,400/oz, its highest since June 5, supported by central bank buying and expectations of a soft inflation print. Oil rebounded to...
Date: August 11, 2026
Executive Summary
The US dollar remains under pressure after July's NFP report unexpectedly showed a decline of 23,000 jobs (vs. +80,000 expected), pushing Fed rate hike probabilities down to 44%. Gold surged over 7% for the week, breaking above key resistance levels...
Date: August 10, 2026
US Dollar – Hovering Below 100
DXY trades near 99.75-99.85. Conflicting signals from US-Iran negotiations are providing intermittent safe-haven support for the dollar, while hawkish Fed comments also offer some lift. Markets are pricing a 55% probability of a September...
Date: August 7, 2026
US Dollar – Awaiting NFP
DXY trades near 99.85, remaining below 100. The market is waiting for Friday's NFP (8:30 PM AEST). Weak ADP data (44k) has already pressured the dollar. A weak NFP could send DXY toward 99.00-99.42, while a strong print could trigger a bounce...
Date: August 6, 2026
US Dollar – ADP Miss Weighs
DXY remains below 100.00. ADP employment for July came in at just 44,000 (lowest since January), well below the 70,000 estimate, reinforcing expectations of a more dovish Fed. Markets now await Friday's NFP report.
Key levels: Support...
Date: August 5, 2026
US Dollar – Hovering Around 100
DXY trades around 100.00, pressured by intervention-driven yen strength and mixed US data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 55.6 (highest in 4 years), supporting the dollar. However, US-Japan coordinated intervention continues to weigh on...
August 4, 2026
US Dollar – Breaking Below 100
DXY trades around 99.85, having hit a low of 99.42. The Fed held rates but three FOMC members dissented, while Japan's intervention and hawkish signals from the BoJ triggered a massive USD/JPY selloff. The 100.00 level has now turned into strong...
August 3, 2026
US Dollar – Breaks Below 100
DXY tumbled below 100.00, closing the week at 99.70, down 1.65%. The Fed held rates but three FOMC members dissented, wanting a 25bp hike. Markets questioned whether the Fed is hawkish enough to fight inflation, triggering broad USD selling. The...