DXY – Recovers to 99.65 After Fed Speech
DXY trades around 99.65, recovering to a 2-week high after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole. He emphasized inflation hasn't cooled significantly and the Fed still has "work to do," boosting rate hike expectations for September to 64%. Markets are awaiting US jobs data on Friday.
Key Levels:
- Support: 99.11 – 99.00
- Resistance: 99.71 – 100.00
Outlook: Bullish, testing 100 resistance.
Gold – Hovers Around $4,460
Gold trades around $4,460/oz, hovering after the Fed's hawkish remarks. Pressure from a strong USD and rising yields pushed prices to the $4,413 zone before recovering on US-Iran geopolitical tensions. RSI is in neutral territory, suggesting the downtrend is slowing.
Key Levels:
- Support: 4,413 – 4,400
- Resistance: 4,500 – 4,529
Outlook: Range-bound, but correction risk remains.
WTI Crude – Jumps to $85 on Middle East Tensions
WTI surged past $85/barrel after the US struck Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with missiles and drones on US facilities in Jordan. Supply disruption risks have increased. However, RSI is in neutral territory with signs of divergence.
Key Levels:
- Support: 83.75 – 81.59
- Resistance: 86.14 – 87.38
Outlook: Bullish, but correction risk remains.
AUD/USD – Holds Near 15-Week High
AUD/USD trades around 0.7200, holding near 15-week highs as RBA rate hike expectations grow. Probability of a September rate hike has reached 52%. The RBA could act as early as the September 29-30 meeting.
Key Levels:
- Support: 0.7106 – 0.7100
- Resistance: 0.7200 – 0.7264
Outlook: Bullish, but near resistance.
EUR/USD – Recovers to 1.1610
EUR/USD recovered to 1.1610 after higher-than-expected inflation data from France and Spain, reinforcing expectations of further ECB tightening. The ECB deposit rate is expected to reach 2.80% by March 2027.
Key Levels:
- Support: 1.1570 – 1.1500
- Resistance: 1.1593 – 1.1633
Outlook: Neutral – slightly bullish.
GBP/USD – Hovers Around 1.3540
GBP/USD hovers around 1.3540, near its 2-week low. US-Iran geopolitical tensions and Fed rate hike expectations are weighing on the pair.
Key Levels:
- Support: 1.3521 – 1.3474
- Resistance: 1.3560 – 1.3600
Outlook: Neutral, range-bound.
USD/JPY – Pulls Back from 160.20
USD/JPY pulled back from 160.20 to around 159.60. Expectations of earlier BoJ rate hikes support the Yen. However, the wide US-Japan yield differential limits Yen gains.
Key Levels:
- Support: 159.55 – 159.13
- Resistance: 160.33 – 160.88
Outlook: Neutral, range-bound.
ASX200 – Eases to 9,076
ASX200 fell 0.2% to 9,076 points on the last trading day of August. Materials and mining sectors fell sharply (BHP, Rio Tinto -2%), while banks gained as defensive flows increased. The market is in a consolidation phase.
Key Levels:
- Support: 9,050 – 9,000
- Resistance: 9,100 – 9,200
Outlook: Correcting, awaiting fresh data.
Nikkei 225 – Recovers from Session Lows
Nikkei 225 fell 0.14% to 66,312 points, recovering from intraday lows. Tech and semiconductor stocks came under pressure from weakness in US tech stocks. Defensive sectors like utilities attracted inflows.
Key Levels:
- Support: 66,000 – 65,500
- Resistance: 66,800 – 67,200
Outlook: Correcting, dependent on US markets.
Key Events This Week
- Tuesday (01/09): US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Aug)
- Wednesday (02/09): US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) – Highlight
- Thursday (03/09): US Initial Jobless Claims – Weekly jobs data
- Friday (04/09): US Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) – Highlight of the week
- USD: Recovered to 99.65, testing 100
- Gold: Hovers around 4,460, correction risk
- Oil: Jumps to $85 on Middle East tensions
- AUD/USD: Holds near 15-week high, awaiting RBA
- EUR/USD: Recovered, inflation data supports
- GBP/USD: Hovers around 1.3540
- USD/JPY: Pulls back from 160.20
- ASX200: Correcting, awaiting fresh data
- Nikkei 225: Recovers from session lows
